Efficiency of the markets in August 1401/ the growth of commodity markets and the decline of 4 financial markets
According to Tejarat News, the fifth month of the year ended while all financial markets fell. The efficiency of financial markets in August 1401 how was it
Dollar price
Dollar price The National Exchange had a 3.64% drop in July. Meanwhile, the dollar was the only market that grew in July with a positive return of 0.76.
National ExchangeOn Thursday, July 30, he announced the sale rate of the dollar at 27,846 tomans. Meanwhile, the national exchange rate was recorded at 26,833 Tomans on Monday, August 31.
A lot of fluctuations happened in the free market last month. The dollar went up to 32 thousand tomans and went down to about 28 thousand tomans. The dollar in the informal market ended August with an increase in the channel of 29 thousand tomans. The last cash rate in channels on this day was 29,400 Tomans. Despite this, compared to the previous month, the dollar rate in the open market also dropped. The American currency ended July at the border of 32 thousand tomans. The floor and ceiling of the dollar price were 31,760 and 31,920 on Thursday, July 30, and 31,950 and 31,960 on Friday, the 31st.
gold price
On the other hand, The efficiency of financial markets in August 1401Gold had the biggest negative return last month with a 6.59% drop. Gold experienced the highest negative return in Tir, with a drop of 5.63.
gold price On the last day of July 1401, it was one million 265 thousand 800 Tomans. While the gold market reached the price of one million 355 thousand 89 Tomans on August 31.
Prices for coins
On the other hand, efficiency of markets, Coin market buyers also lost money last month. The drop in the price of the new design coin was 5.41%. The coin experienced a negative return of 4.52% in July.
Prices for coins The new plan was 14 million Tomans on the last day of July and reached 14 million and 800 thousand Tomans on the last working day of August.
The price of gold and coins fluctuated a lot in the fifth month of the year under the influence of the price of the dollar and ounce. Gold fluctuated between the level of 1,400,000 to 1,200,000 tomans and ended the month in a lower channel. Imami coin also fell from 15 million tomans channel to 12 million tomans channel, but it increased again. Bahar Azadi coin (old design) was also accompanied by a drop in price and went to the channel of 12 million tomans. Although both types of coins ended the month with gains, they ultimately had negative returns compared to July.
Exchange
On the other hand, The efficiency of financial markets in August 1401Overall Index Exchange It also fell last month. Tir stock market ended at the level of 1 million 471 thousand 898 units.
Meanwhile, the index of the whole stock market on the last day of August was 1 million 424 thousand 489 units. These figures mean a 3.22% drop in the total index. Last month, the stock market also had a negative return of 4.40.
Housing
Further review Market performance in AugustIt should be mentioned about housing that was associated with growth.
to report Statistics Center The price index of consumer goods and services of the country’s households in this group increased by 2.8 percent in the fifth month of 1401 compared to the previous month. This figure for July this year was 3.9 percent.
Durable goods
On the other hand, Market efficiency in August 1401the market of durable goods (cars and household appliances) was also bullish last month.
The price index of consumer goods and services of the country’s households in this group increased by 1.1 percent in the fifth month of 1401 compared to the previous month. This figure for the previous month was 1.4.
Effective signals on market performance
According to Tejarat News, the financial markets have been affected in recent times Vienna talks and political news were located
Financial markets in Iran especially Dollar price Usually to political news especially about Nuclear negotiations have been sensitive In these days, the situation is the same, and the markets, especially the currency, increase and decrease in hopes for the future AgreementThey change the trend. Especially the currency market has become sensitive to this issue and it affects gold and coins as well. The stock market is still waiting for the task of the negotiations to be determined.
Iran’s response was reasonable
Yesterday, the European Union’s foreign policy official announced that he considers Iran’s response to the European draft “reasonable” and admitted that holding a meeting for a nuclear agreement this week is possible. This is despite the fact that before this Bloomberg news agency quoted a European official saying that Tehran has sent a constructive response.
Hours after Borrell’s statement was published, Bloomberg news agency, citing a high-ranking American official, confirmed that the nuclear talks with Iran have progressed and, according to him, Iran has withdrawn from some of its demands. However, there are still gaps. This American official did not explain about these gaps, but said that Washington will respond to Iran’s proposals at the right time (New Century).
Important issues remain
At the same time, ISNA quoted the Iranian Foreign Minister’s spokesperson as saying: “The other side, especially the Americans, has not yet received a response to the European side’s proposal, and we can talk about the success of the negotiations when the European side announces the response of the American side.” Has received.
Nasser Kanani added in his press conference: “We are still on the path of negotiation.” If Iran needs an agreement, surely the European and American sides need an agreement more than Iran.
He added: Although the remaining issues may be relatively small, they are important issues and should be decided and agreed upon.
Kanani said: So far, we have made relatively good progress regarding the negotiations, but the negotiations are a set and we must agree on the issues related to the negotiations, and we cannot say that we have reached an agreement until all the issues are agreed upon.
Stock market under the influence of negotiations and economic indicators
The return of the stock market, like other markets, these days is influenced by the news of the Vienna negotiations, and with the decrease and increase of hopes for Revival of the JCPOAIt is green or purple.
Traders are also sensitive to interest rate news.
Majid Eshghi, the head of the stock exchange organization, said regarding the interbank interest rate: During the meeting we had with Dr. Saleh Abadi, the head of the central bank, and the follow-ups, it was decided that this upward trend will be controlled, and according to the yield rates, including bank interest rates, The rates of treasury bonds and Islamic financing that exist in the market and are balanced should be decided (pulse of the stock market).
Tejarat News wrote: Some experts believe that the reduction of the interbank interest rate will benefit the capital market, while others say that the capital market will be hit by the reduction of this interest rate. Also, profit control can help the market trend.
Fluctuations in interest rates and stock market returns
In the meantime, it seems that the pressures of the stock market activists in the past weeks had caused the interbank interest rate to be in a downward spiral since the beginning of August. However, according to predictions, this decrease could not be beneficial for the capital market and compensate the losses of the stock exchanges.
On the other hand, after suppressing interbank interest, the central bank had to supply its resources in the banking market to meet the needs of banks. According to economic experts, this action is inflationary and can cause big problems in the long run.
Inflation rate announcement
Statistics Center announced the August inflation rate. The annual inflation rate of August 1401 for the country’s households has reached 41.5%, which shows an increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to the same information in the previous month.
Reducing the point inflation rate of the country’s households
Point inflation rate means the percentage change of the price index compared to the same month of the previous year. Spot inflation rate has reached 52.2% in August 1401. That is, the country’s households have spent an average of 52.2% more than August 1400 to buy an “identical set of goods and services”.
The spot inflation rate of August 1401 has decreased by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Car and housing markets
The efficiency of the car market is also affected by the changes in JCPOA and fluctuations in the price of the dollar. Cars have become capital goods in Iran, and that is why you are affected by these things. At the same time, uncertainties about car imports continue and this does not help the market.
On the other hand, the authorities have announced the possibility of an increase in the factory price of damaged cars. This issue can be a signal for the market.
The housing market is still in inflationary stagnation. In recent times, the phenomenon of termination of contracts has also spread and some traders give up on negotiations before the deals are finalized. Experts believe that all markets are pending nuclear negotiations, but the impact of the possible revival of the JCPOA on the housing market is temporary and can show itself in the form of a shock.
Political signals and macroeconomic indicators Efficiency of markets are effective
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