Predict the new growth time of the stock index

According to Tejarat News, Ehsan Rezapour Nikro, a capital market expert in the world of economics, wrote: In recent weeks, the issue of raising interest rates has been raised in economic circles. There are also rumors about the possibility of an agreement in the field of joint action plan and the effects of this important issue in reducing the dollar exchange rate in the market.

Surveys of global markets also show that prices are favorable in most products, especially in the petrochemical, refining, mineral, metal and chemical industries.

On the other hand, the holdings of these industries are in a reasonable condition. Now we are close to the chapter of assemblies of investment companies and holdings of these industries. It seems that the downward trend will not continue due to the fundamental situation of the companies and the favorable 6-month reports that are waiting for the market.

In my opinion, from the second half of this week, we will see an increase in market demand and a surpass in supply. The stock market is now volatile. When it comes to lower prices, fundamentally attractiveness naturally makes corporate stocks lucky.

As indices grow and supplies intensify, the market appears to be looking for components that can lead to some price volatility. In this way, the placement process continues until some of the stimuli and ambiguities that are not clear to the market become somewhat more pronounced.

The role of the 6-month reports will be effective in improving and increasing the fundamental transparency of the market, but there is also concern in the energy sector about the impact of budget decisions that may be made on this issue and affect firms’ profitability. It will not be comfortable in the next one to two months in line with the continuous increasing trend despite the existence of fundamental attractions. The reduction of 400 Tomans of the dollar rate in the open market (28 thousand Tomans) is not a significant figure in the last few days.

If we experience a 10% drop in the dollar from the current range, it means that we have a drop of 3,000 tomans from the dollar price ceiling in recent months, the dollar will still be in the range of more than 25,000 tomans. While the Nima dollar is almost in the range of 23,000 Tomans, the Nima rate is still significantly different from the dollar rate in the open market.

It seems that rates of more than 25,000 tomans for the free market dollar will not be of particular concern from this perspective until the half-dollar is stabilized in figures of more than 22,000 tomans, along with the global price situation and the level of demand in international markets.

If the global market environment changes or we experience an unsupported and heavy fall of the dollar through political agreements, the effects of these events in the market will certainly be partial. However, risk-free interest rate stabilization at figures above 24% can also negatively affect the market P / E.

Unless such cases are observed in the market, the current 6-month corporate stock range has fundamental support and can make investors more attractive than competing markets.

Apart from these, any better interaction and agreement with the region and the world can naturally have positive effects in reducing the upward acceleration of the exchange rate, and sometimes it may be accompanied by a noticeable decrease in the exchange rate, which will affect the marketable markets. Took. This can lead to a sustainable improvement in production and sales, reducing the cost of money transfer and access time, and increasing the tonnage of companies in international markets.