1402 stock market prediction / Will the stock market overtake its competitors? – Tejarat News
According to Tejarat News, during the past months, the price in parallel markets has increased sharply; The dollar, gold, coin and even housing markets have made many upward moves and have brought good returns to their investors. Meanwhile, the stock market is the only market that is lagging behind not only the competitors but also the inflation! Accordingly, some predict that 1402 is the year of the stock market and the stock market will reach other markets.
However, the stock market needs some prerequisites to experience growth again and attract new liquidity; One of the most important prerequisites for investors to re-enter the stock market is building trust and drawing a realistic vision for the people.
In the first part of the Tejarat News interview with Maitham Fadaei, the former CEO of Fara Exchange, which was published yesterday under the title “The double effect of the dollar price on listed companies / the feed rate formula must be revised”, the issue was investigated that the growth of the dollar price and changes What effect will the different rates of this currency have on the stock market and publishers? In the second and final part of this conversation, which you are reading now, Fadai has reviewed the market trend in the coming year and the requirements for its growth.
the predictability of the economy; The best stock support package!
Over the past three years, many support packages have been unveiled and the list of these packages is endless. But many of the provisions of these packages have either not been implemented or have not had a clear effect on the market. The Minister of Economy recently announced a new support package! But the main question is, does the capital market need this kind of support? What do you think is the best way to support the capital market?
Now the capital market is in a good condition in terms of fundamental variables and effective environmental factors and does not need a support package. The capital market is the market of expectations! What profit do you expect a company to make next year and a series of variables affect this expectation; Variables such as exchange rate, interest rate, product sales model in commodity exchanges, and so on. In fact, the support package that can specify these variables and clarify the process is the best support package!
Where did this way of supporting thinking with this conventional method come from? Anyway, the experts of the Ministry of Economy are familiar with these main influencing variables, but they still tend towards the same type of support. Does this support originate more from an economic or political point of view?
This type of support packages became more popular after 1999; We did not have such support packages before 1999. The reason for the creation of these packages was that in 1999, people were invited to the market in various ways, which at that time was not prepared to accept this liquidity.
This unpreparedness included the technical and software aspects, the servicing of financial institutions, investment funds, and the discussion of laws and regulations. For example, in 1999, we did not have an initial offering with a capital increase model. It means to take the cash flow that has come to the company into the production and activity cycle of the company so that it can be spent on fundamental development and growth.
Many people entered the stock market in 1999 and got involved in its transactions. Most of the transactions of these people were in the last 4-5 months, that is, when the market was going through its last days of growth. The stock exchange organization faced a lot of requests and social pressures that people entered the stock market and lost money. Statistical studies of that time show that most of the people’s capital was less than 50 million tomans, but after all, this figure was the total capital of the individual and he had lost on it.
After that point, the decision-makers wanted to help shape the market trend with different support packages, and of course some of these packages were good and successful and helped to a large extent. For example, in the November package, a provision was made to support the stock portfolio of fixed income funds, which was effective.
Many of the packages that were presented in the market in the last two years were based on the 1999 compensation approach; If people were not invited to the stock market this year when the technical infrastructure was not ready, and professional shareholders traded in the market, these problems would not have occurred. But when the general public got involved directly, these challenges were also created and they had to provide various support packages accordingly.
Will 1999 be repeated?
Can the capital market, in the current situation, without government support, be the place to re-introduce liquidity?
The capital market, both in terms of the current value of assets and in terms of profitability, is at a stage that does not need any package for support. The capital market is the foundation of the transparent economy of any country, and when we can first create transparency and then predictability of the effective variables in the capital market, companies will discover their true prices.
If the capital market companies have transparency in the product sales rate and exchange rate, they do not need any support package. In terms of liquidity in the society, the market that can now turn liquidity into a positive effect in the economy is the capital market.
In 1999, we saw that the inflation had heated up the engine of the stock market; Considering the current inflation, which is moving at a higher speed than that point, is it possible that the events of 1999 will be repeated again?
By the way, the concern that may exist in the policy of the country is that the conditions of 1999 should not be repeated again; But I definitely say that the country’s capital market infrastructure has improved a lot compared to 1999. Both in terms of the analytical training that happened in the capital market and in terms of indirect investment infrastructure, the capital market situation has changed a lot.
One of the factors that caused this situation in 1999 was the lack of capacity of investment funds. If, with the measures of the stock exchange organization, we now have more than 100 companies with a portfolio management license, if there was no such number in 1999. Also, online and face-to-face access to investment funds has increased, and during this period, people’s analytical literacy has also increased.
It seems that if predictability increases a little and the status of the budget variables is clear and clear, we can definitely use this opportunity for the country’s economy. A series of very good events have also happened in the market, such as different initial supply models or capital increase from the place of pre-emption; If we did not experience these things in 1999.
These will cause that if that cash flow enters the capital market once again, this market can use indirect investment tools and capital increase models to bring cash flow to companies and take advantage of this opportunity.
investing in the stock market; Needs analysis and realism
The events of 1999 have made people extremely distrustful of the capital market; Do you think that now the capital market has the capacity to restore confidence in the market?
So far, Tehran Stock Exchange has witnessed growth cycles several times. What happened in 1999 and created mistrust was that a wider range of people entered the stock market. But the problem that existed in the capital market itself in 1999 was that there were no indirect investment tools, education and analysis in the capital market, and resources did not enter the companies.
For example, in 1999, a share of 500 billion Tomans was in the queue for purchase, and if this amount had entered the company for development and new projects, it would have had a positive effect and a bubble would not have been created.
Currently, the capital market does not have any special problems in terms of value and is valuable. The tools are much better than in 1999. If the predictability of companies improves a bit and the budget is closed more fairly, it can definitely improve the capital market situation.
We have to talk to people clearly. No one should expect to earn guaranteed profits in the capital market. There is no such thing as profit guarantee in the whole capital markets of the world!
For example, in the American stock market, Alibaba’s shares are initially offered, and in the first year, they fall by 50%! Whoever enters the capital market must accept these risks. From that side, for example, there is the share of Apple, which has grown very well in the American stock market in the past few years.
So we must tell people that the capital market is a market that needs analysis; A market that requires both sufficient knowledge and enough time to enter. At the same time, one should not expect a market that is always going up, in which the shares of all companies are bought in any way and grow. This market is a risk and return market and works according to companies.
Fortunately, many of our capital market shares are commodity-oriented and traditional shares; That is, for example, we don’t have many startup companies in the capital market that are difficult to analyze. Or companies with high risk are identified and tabulated.
Therefore, we must first inform the people; The concept that a person buys a share without analysis and expects it to always grow does not exist in the capital market.
Even the basic shares are the same; A stock may have an upward trend or a downward trend. Some stocks depend on global variables; For example, if the price of copper decreases in the world, the corresponding shares should also decrease in the market. Or if the price of steel decreases or increases, the corresponding stock will be affected. So we have to get rid of the idea that the capital market is a risk-free market with very good returns. This is not the correct definition.
In the initial offerings, the impression was created that every initial offering you buy has at least 50% profit. While initial offerings in the world are not like this; Therefore, trust means that there is no manipulation in the capital market, there is proper monitoring of transactions, and the influencing variables are predictable so that traders can analyze.
In this way, the capital market is prone to growth; But can we say that the market has used all its potential?
The capital market currently needs only one thing that has been done well; It is also about the two-way market and options. In the stock markets of the world, the markets are two-sided, that is, traders make profit both with the growing market and when the stock price falls.
Currently, options have taken a good path in our capital market; Now it is no longer the case that in situations where there is an option, the trader only profits from the price increase, but also from the price decrease.
Therefore, if infrastructures such as borrowing sales, short-selling and options are developed, the capital market can be a good and profitable market, whether in an upward or downward trend.
Forecast of the stock market in 1402
Considering the two scenarios of the continuation of sanctions and a possible agreement, what is your prediction of the path of the stock market in 1402?
The continuation of sanctions does not have a very special effect on the capital market; Because we have many companies that have found solutions to access currency abroad. Of course, sometimes we have challenges in these fields.
If the economic opening happens, industries like automobiles and banks will have very good conditions, and in industries like petrochemicals, sales overhead costs caused by sanctions will disappear. This issue will have a significant impact on the amount of sales and their currency transfer process.
In any case, it is predicted that the capital market will have a good and upward trend in the medium and long term!
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