2 stock market growth scenario in the second half of the year / will the reign of recession end? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, the change in the policies of the central bank and the attempt to control inflation by suppressing the markets has caused a recession in all markets, not just the stock market. However, after all the ups and downs that happened during the first 6 months of 1402, the stock market won the title of the most profitable market in the first 6 months of the year, ahead of the gold and coin, dollar, car and real estate markets.

stagnation; The absolute ruler of the markets

In an interview with TejaratNews, Berrozo Haqshanas, an expert on the capital market, stated: Prediction Exchange Currently, it is a debate that cannot be easily guessed in advance. The stock market is highly dependent on the dollar and other markets. Currently, the economic policy maker and the central bank at the top of it, clearly say that the markets must be controlled.

He added: Policy-making institutions have their own concerns in terms of inflation. They say that prices, which are the output of inflation, should be controlled. In his interview last week, Mr. Farzin clearly said that by stabilizing and controlling the markets since May, we have succeeded in controlling inflation.

In response to the question of how long this new policy will last, Haqshanas said: In this field, the policy maker’s hands are open for now. That is, as long as events such as the exchange of prisoners and the closeness of countries’ positions dominate the diplomatic atmosphere, the politician’s hand is open. Now, in the second half of the year, the macroeconomic issues of the country, contrary to Mr. Farzin’s statement, indicate that the economy is moving towards the compression of the market spring. If the smallest issue in the field of foreign policy occurs against the current positive trend, the dollar and other markets, including the capital market, will move accordingly.

Price control is not the way to control inflation!

This stock market expert added: controlling the price is not controlling inflation. The main root of inflation is monetary policies and these policies are still ongoing. Even though officials say that the acceleration of liquidity growth has decreased, but the issue of increasing government debt to banks says something else. While the statistics of monetary components are not published, and while we are in October, the statistics of April have been published recently, which shows that there are some things that have not been said.

He emphasized: Therefore, the market conditions depend on this issue. Now, if I, as an analyst, at the same time as a monetary policymaker, believes in restraining prices, if I say with certainty that the markets should grow due to the macroeconomic conditions, it is irrelevant.

This stock market expert added: This view is not unique to Mr. Farzin, and unfortunately, in the past 50 years, when the root of our inflation has been mainly monetary policies, the policy maker has always considered the price control policy, which is at the end of the inflation path, due to populist issues. .

He added: It means that the policymaker thinks that inflation will be controlled by stagnating the markets. No; The problem lies elsewhere and inflation is rooted in other elements. The government has always proceeded by squeezing the market. However, somewhere this spring has been lost and the prices have grown by leaps and bounds.

The first scenario of the possible growth of the stock market

About the possible scenario of market growth, Haqshana said: So far, the markets have stopped with news therapy. The fact that the tensions between the parties do not escalate has caused the stagnation of the markets, according to the policy of the related institutions. But from now on, there is a need for more serious measures. If these actions do not occur in the second half of the year, all markets will have an upward movement ahead. In this case, as long as there is a will on the part of the policy maker to control the markets, the markets will go their way. The realization of this scenario depends on the fact that serious news, for example, a special event does not happen in the country’s diplomatic atmosphere.

This stock market expert continued: But the market will wait for a while with repeated news such as the mediation of Oman, Japan or Qatar and such news treatments. As it happened last year until September. Last year, the news about the possibility of signing the agreement kept the markets waiting until September, but in the second half of the year, because nothing actually happened, the markets started to move.

Haqshanas emphasized: The same thing is happening now and these claims that the growth rate of liquidity and inflation have decreased are not very true. For example, there have been several cases where the statistics have changed by changing the base year. In fact, with a game with statistics, the variables will simply change in the desired direction. If the liquidity growth has decreased, why has the government’s debt to the banks increased by 145%? What is happening is like you don’t want something to happen today and you just put it off until next year on a bigger scale.

He stated: In short, our macroeconomic conditions are not in favor of controlling inflation. On the other hand, what the policy maker does is not according to the findings of economics! It means that we see all the inflation in controlling the prices, as if we have abandoned the cause and beat the effect. Now, at some point, the spring of the markets will open, it is not possible to say with certainty, but finally, in another year, the government will have the ability to keep the market stagnant.

The lawyer emphasized: the situation Company reports (What has been published so far) is not so touching. Not in the sense that it is extremely bad, but it does not grab the heart and cannot be considered as an important driver for the growth of the market. As a result, in the second half of the year, the market driver is the American bill; If growth happens in Ferdowsi Square market, the stock market will also grow accordingly. On the other hand, due to the macroeconomic conditions, the possibility of dollar growth is also high.

The second scenario of the possible growth of the stock market

Haqshanas stated: Another possibility for possible market scenarios in the second 6 months of 1402 is that a game will happen on revaluations in large shares such as Zob and the banking group, which can be considered as another driver for the growth of the market. There is a possibility of this because the five-year term of these companies has been filled.

This stock market expert said: Market growth occurs in the form of one of these two modes or the simultaneous occurrence of both, and otherwise we should wait for the continuation of the stagnant conditions of the markets. Unfortunately, what the politician is proud of today (dominance of recession in the market) is wrong and its consequences will continue to affect the government. You have done bad things a hundred times and you have seen the results, what good is bad if you did not do it once! The repeated mistake of the government in the last 50 years is being repeated with the approach of the current policy makers. The last time this policy was implemented was from 1993 to 1996, after which we saw that there was no economic growth from 1996 to 1400 and even until 1402. What Mr. Rouhani’s government was proud of also happened because of the sale of oil.

A comprehensive agreement is beneficial to the market in every way

Regarding the usefulness or harm of the agreement in the country’s diplomatic atmosphere for the capital market, Barzo Haqshanas said: A comprehensive agreement, if it happens between Iran and foreign parties, is very beneficial to the market. Of course, in the short term, it may shock all the markets, but even in the medium term, for example, a period of 6 months after the agreement, its good effects will appear in the financial reports of companies. But the comprehensive agreement we are talking about is more like a wish. This means that based on what has been experienced in recent years, it is impossible to form such an agreement between Iran and the West.

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