3 When will the condition of the return of prosperity to the housing market/recession period end? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, the housing market transactions, which enjoyed a good boom last year along with the price increase, entered a recession after stepping into 1402 and with the government’s economic suppression policies.

On the other hand, the currency price has not fluctuated much for several months, and as a result of these two factors, according to some officials, house prices have experienced a 20-30% price drop.

Of course, this price reduction ultimately did not have a positive effect on people’s purchasing power, and a large segment of the society is still facing difficulties in meeting housing expenses. But what effect does this recession have on the housing market and how long will it last?

Does the housing market draw a line from the dollar?

Referring to the recent developments in the housing market, Alireza Tavalikashi, an expert in housing economics, explained three important conditions for the return of non-inflationary prosperity to this market. He stated that the changes in the housing market have always depended to a large extent on the state of the currency market and fluctuations in the dollar rate, and he clarified: noticeable growth in the currency market has always led to an increase in the price of housing, and naturally, a decrease in the exchange rate also results in a decrease in the price of housing. is reflected

Tavakoli Kashi pointed out: Although the reduction and stability of prices along with the stagnation of transactions that we have seen in the housing market in recent months are in some ways dependent on currency fluctuations, but in most cases, it is caused by an internal factor in the market, that is, a huge gap between the levels The current housing price is based on the purchasing power of households. Moreover, even if the price of the dollar increases, there is not enough purchasing power in the housing market from the consumer side, and maybe a limited group of investors will be interested in this market and buy and sell apartments.

This housing economics expert added: For this reason, it can be said that although the subsequent fluctuations in the dollar price may lead to an increase in housing prices, the market’s entry into the boom phase and the end of the recession period are completely dependent on the state of purchasing power on the side of consumer demand.

Conditional return of prosperity to the housing market

He said: Based on what has been said, there are three important conditions for ending the recession period and entering the market into the boom phase of real estate transactions (non-inflationary boom). The first condition is to restore and improve the purchasing power of households and consumers, especially first home applicants, for their entry into the housing market.

Tavaklikashi explained in an interview with the economic world: In fact, the gap between purchasing power and housing prices should be filled and compensated in the first place. On the other hand, it is necessary for the prices to remain at the same current levels for an effective period of time so that the households can gradually gain the ability to enter the market, and in the next place, with effective arrangements, the income level of the households will increase and with facilities and arrangements, their access will be possible. increase to real estate.

Housing market forecast until the end of this year

He also said in relation to the possible option about the state of the housing market until the end of the year: the option of price stability until the end of the year is more likely; If the exchange rate does not fluctuate for a period of one year, housing prices can be expected to decrease. Tavaklikashi said: definitely, the stability and devaluation of the currency needs to be continued in order to have a decreasing effect on the housing prices, and restoring the purchasing power of the applicants is also the main condition for the non-inflationary prosperity of the housing market.

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