4 factors affecting the dollar in returning to the channel of 49 thousand tomans

Iran Economist – note – Mohammad Kohandal, analyst of economic issues: Observations show that the price of the dollar in the Iranian market, in addition to depending on economic variables, is more or less related to political factors and variables, and with a superficial look at this issue, probably hasty analyzes of the increase The price of the dollar after the Kerman terrorist crime seems more correct than other analyses, but why will the price of the dollar maintain its stability and return to the same channel of 49 thousand tomans?

When it is said about the effect of political factors on the price of the dollar, one should look at the depth of the issue and not its levels, when a political variable can stimulate the dollar when, firstly, the price is ready to change in terms of time, and secondly, there is the potential to stimulate demand in the currency market. So, the cash flow in the market is at a level that can push the prices up, and lastly, the inflation outlook is also active.

We examine these three issues, the price of the dollar has grown by more than 50% from the beginning of 1401 to the end of it, and now it has been in the corridor of 48 to 52 thousand tomans for almost 9 months. Experience has shown that the dollar needs time correction to move to channels 10, 20, or even 50, because it basically takes some time for society and market participants to react to such prices.

Secondly, the market that jumped last year and now with its stability of 9 months has been far from a market such as the efficiency of the housing and stock market, cannot have many applicants, and the silence of Ferdowsi Street as the axis of the informal market confirms this.

Thirdly, it seems that by controlling the growth of liquidity and adjusting the growth rate of demand deposits to its historical figure of about 30%, the flow of cash in the foreign exchange market has been severely limited, which has helped to weaken the demand side.

And in the last issue, despite the control of liquidity and probably the continuation of the government’s oil revenues, which will leave the policymaker’s hands free to interfere in the market, the expectation of inflation adjustment cannot be considered unreasonable. The existence of political events does not have the potential to change and any price increase can be emotional and fleeting.

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