4 predictions of the future of the stock market

According to Tejarat News, Elahe Zafari, a stock market expert, writes about the capital market situation: December is a psychologically important month for the stock market because most of the time, in neutral and downward conditions, the market in December has formed good floors for climbing. The current state of prices and the reforms that have taken place to date are being strengthened. The increase in interbank interest rates to the range of 21% has been one of the worst news for the market these days, which has caused panic and behavioral reactions from stockbrokers.

Currently, one of the main fears of the market is the existence of a government without debt and without resources, but powerful, which many people look to wherever it is possible to earn money, which of course is quite natural for a government in crisis with a perspective of at least 3 years. You are facing a serious crisis in providing and controlling the basic conditions of the economic context, the debate is about life and death, and there is no room left for more advanced issues such as the stock market.

In the meantime, the issue of industrial feed supply (in terms of access and resources) also shows itself; However, the economy is a fully connected system, and with any reduction in production, especially in export-oriented companies, the expectation of a growth in the dollar will increase.

Continuation of current policies (as always) will have more destructive effects and more volatile inflation in the long run, but at present will have short-term negative effects on the stock market (as a pillar that is actually much closer to the market in the country’s economy). With all these assumptions, with the end of December approaching and the final status of how to deal with industries and the 1401 budget assumptions are determined, with the estimation of the global rates situation, we do not expect the index to decrease further than the current range.

Fluctuations will remain in the same range

Elnaz Afshar, a stock market expert, also states in this regard: Contrary to the opinion of political analysts, there is no economic sign of Borjam from a purely economic point of view. By comparing the price of currency with goods, we will find that the current price of the dollar is lower than its real price.

The new government, like the previous ones, continues with the policy of controlling the exchange rate on the one hand, and on the other hand, with the issuance of bonds.

But what remains in the economy is the truth, so soon we will see a gradual boom in the capital market, given the system’s policy of controlling markets parallel to the capital market and taxing capital gains. The same wrong economic policy goes so far that the exchange rate of 4200 Tomans and mandatory pricing will only cause the bankruptcy of companies and factories.

Gradually, the government’s economic team has no choice but to use the market mechanism, ie the single exchange rate and the elimination of the 4,200 Toman currency, which has led to mandatory pricing. This leads investors to the capital market, which is the only path that imposes the least inflation on the economy.

The capital market is currently devoid of potential sellers, and shareholders’ emotional trading behaviors stem from political news, which they experience in complete confusion.

Gradually, shareholders and investors will realize the current economic reality and invest in the long run to maintain the value of their money, but given the current market conditions and the government’s hasty decisions and ambiguity in pricing policy, it deprives investors of the ability to analyze and decide. It has caused distrust and confusion for investors in the capital market, and with the possibility of a resumption of Barjam negotiations, which has culminated in an unpredictable situation for shareholders, market fluctuations continue in the same range to make the political and economic conditions clearer for investors.

Kamormagh Stock Exchange in December

Shayan Karami, another stock market expert, believes: In December, we have several factors that affect the stock market conditions and are important. One of these is the issue of interbank interest rates, which have risen very slowly to 21%, and this is a little emotionally worrying for the capital market, so I think the main influential variable in the market so far is the rate hike. Profit has been interbank. Another factor that I believe affects stock market conditions is the exchange rate.

Although the exchange rate is stable and slightly rising, its fluctuations have become more controlled in every way. Another factor is that we are at the forefront of the issue of Borjam’s international negotiations, which, when it comes to negotiations, creates an ambiguity for investors.

In this atmosphere, most of them try to be spectators, which is why the exchange rate can not rise, and of course, as I said, it is going through stable conditions.

Another issue was the issue of moneylessness in the market. Considering all these conversations, I see December as a low-volume, low-volume and even slightly declining month.

The stock market in the coming month is small and eroding

Bahman Fallah, a stock market expert, says: “Unfortunately, nothing special has happened in the macro variables that is a positive signal for the capital market. The only information we have is that the exchange rate in the 1401 budget, which goes to parliament this month, is 23,000.” Toman has increased, which can be a positive factor for export companies.

Naturally, when this rate is considered in the budget, the exchange rate in the open market and the Nima and Senate systems will definitely be exchanged at 20% higher than this amount, but unfortunately, despite the fact that we saw the Minister of Economy of the 13th government in the Islamic Consultative Assembly. Came forward and made commitments to support the capital market, something like another 50,000 billion tomans has received permission to supply government bonds from the Economic Coordination Council; In other words, in addition to the 123,500 billion tomans that the government has been licensed to sell up to 1,400 bonds, 50,000 billion tomans have been licensed again for the budget deficit, and from the previous ceiling, there is about 5,000 billion tomans left. This has a significant psychological effect on stock market conditions.

That is, on average in the months of December, January, February and March, the thirteenth government must sell at least 12 to 13 thousand billion tomans of securities in the market. As we get closer to the end of the year, the payments of holdings and banks and companies are going up because most of the payments are for the end of the year and therefore it will be very difficult for the government to finance this quarter until the end of the year.

In the field of Barjam and political issues, no special news has been transmitted to the market, but in general, for December, in the worst case, I think we will have an almost positive balanced market, because the market has fallen a lot and the shares have been corrected, but still considering that The market suffers from a lack of liquidity and does not have much growth potential.

On the one hand, because it has undergone a lot of improvement and there has been a severe psychological burden on the market, I think that the December market is also an almost balanced, low-volume and erosive market. If positive stimuli are not injected into the market and the market is not supported, the trend can be down again and more reforms in the market, despite the fact that we are approaching the 9-month reports, but as a rule, the heavy shadow of more than 50,000 billion tomans of bond sales is still What is to be done in the market in the next four months, which has been added to this figure, is on the market, but well, we hope to wait for positive stimuli in the market.

Source: the world of economy