5 budget signals for markets / Which market is growing this year?

According to Trade News, the law Budget 1401 It was announced on the day of Eid. A law that is supposed to show the measure of government revenue and expenditure in the coming year. There is a lot of criticism of the government’s proposed budget and the budget approved by the parliament. But in the end, the budget law was announced.

Ebrahim Alizadeh, Editor-in-Chief of Tejarat News, examined the effect of the budget on the markets in a post on his Instagram page. What follows is this economic journalist’s analysis of the impact of the budget on markets.

The impact of the budget on the price of the dollar

Oil revenues (export of 1.2 million barrels of $ 60 oil), budget deficit of 156 thousand billion Tomans and growth of imports are three factors that show the trend of the new year budget. The price of the dollar It is ascending.

But it is unlikely that the government will allow the dollar to rise, and it will probably not allow the dollar to rise by suppressing the currency.

The impact of the budget on the price of gold

gold price In Iran, it is influenced by two factors: the price of the global ounce and the price of the dollar. The government prevents the growth of the dollar by suppressing currency. So the price of gold is unlikely to rise under the influence of the dollar. On the other hand, it is predicted that the government will try to reduce inflation by implementing contractionary policies. One of the policies that may be implemented in the new year is the possibility of increasing bank interest rates in order to collect liquidity from the foreign exchange market and take it to drunken banks.

Therefore, it can be said that the price of gold does not grow under the influence of domestic factors and we can not expect significant returns from gold in the short term.

How does the budget affect the stock market?

Exchange It is directly affected by the price of the dollar. The government is likely to block and suppress the growth of the dollar. So the stock market can not grow by raising the price of the dollar.
In addition to the possibility of suppressing the price of the dollar, the possibility of controlling prices and raising interest rates are two other factors that hinder the growth of the stock market. Based on this, it can be said that in the new year, the possibility of high growth of the stock index is unlikely unless some single shares grow cross-sectionally.

The impact of the budget on cars and housing

In the New Year budget, the government is supposed to tax houses and luxury cars. On the other hand, the main government promises to build one million a year Housing15% reduction in cost carHas increased car production and exports.

But the government is unlikely to have much funding to deliver on these promises. Following the budget path, there is no possibility of reducing car and housing prices. Unless the government can control the price of cars to some extent by suppressing the exchange rate.

But is this a good year to buy a car and a house? The answer to this question depends on whether we buy a house or a car with a consumer view or invest. From a consumer perspective, this year is a good year to buy a house and a car. But from a capitalist point of view, high profits cannot be expected in the short term.

Will bank interest rates rise?

The government is likely to raise bank interest rates this year to control both inflation and markets such as the currency and gold markets. Bank interest rates are likely to rise, but the range of interest rates changes is not so great.