American think tank: Washington revives ISIS and al-Qaeda with a new name
Speculations in Washington about the continuation of the strong presence of the United States in the Middle East or its exit from the region and focus on East Asia and the intensification of China’s containment policy have increased. The final view of the White House is not yet clear, but it seems that the United States is not able to choose an option between the two regions and is trying to have both regions by creating a kind of balance, but giving the main priority to China.
The think tank “Center for Strategic and International Studies” (CSIS) has expressed several scenarios in order to manage the future of the White House policy on developments in the Middle East. In this 100-page report, there is a set of possible actions that the United States may have to take in the Middle East in the future.
This American research institute has presented the following scenarios based on several principles:
(1) be rational and based on plausible events that may occur in the next 5 to 10 years in the Middle East against possible enemies of Washington.
(2) respond to the needs of policymakers and be developed based on possible military missions.
(iii) be based on high-risk situations that could challenge the capabilities of United States and partner forces;
(4) be responsive to the obligations and vital interests of the United States and its current and future partners.
(5) It can be used again and it can be repeated in all kinds of studies and analyses.
Based on the mentioned cases, this think tank has put forward different scenarios for the situation of American presence and intervention in the Middle East, which can be predicted and presented, which include: confronting Iran in the Persian Gulf, reviving the activities of Salafi-jihadi groups, proxy conflict with Russia in Syria, and the re-emergence Terrorist groups in Afghanistan.
Revival of takfiri groups
The experts of this Western think tank say: The first possible scenario is the repetition of terrorist acts originating from the Middle East. According to the prediction of the American think tank, the United States and its partners should be ready to act in the event of a resurgence of terrorism in the Middle East because it threatens the security of the United States. This scenario raises the possibility of the revival of terrorism from a new Salafi-Jihadist group, which is composed of members of both former Islamic State and Al-Qaeda groups.
The Western think tank suggests the possibility of the revival of terrorism in the Middle East consisting of a new Salafi-Jihadist group. This group is made up of members of both ISIS and al-QaedaThe new group, called Tanzim al-Jihad, unites members of both groups in an operational base in war-torn Syria and sanctuaries in Turkey and Iraq.
The report predicts a claim: In 2025, civil war will once again break out in Syria, causing a governance crisis in a fractured country with a weak government.
At that time, Syria has extensive economic problems and it is estimated that 80% of its population lives below the poverty line. This conflict causes many waves of refugees to go to neighboring countries such as Iraq, Jordan and Turkey.
In addition to these countries, as well as the European Union, they are facing increasing pressure in the field of refugees, as well as increasing opposition from their native population.
At that time, Russia will have about 5,000 military forces in Syria, including an aviation group at Al-Hamimim Air Base and a naval group in Tartus; Militants are present all over the east and south of this country.
The war flares up again and attracts fighters from all over Europe, the Middle East and South and Central Asia to Syrian territory again; The number of fighters from the United States will be small. Governance challenges are still staggering. The Damascus government still does not control parts of the northwest such as Idlib and parts of the north occupied by Turkish and Kurdish militias and parts of the east and south under the control of Shiite militias.
According to the World Bank report, in 2025 Syria will rank 1st or 2nd in the list of countries in the world in terms of government effectiveness, supervisory quality, political stability and corruption control. In short, Syria becomes almost like another Afghanistan; A weak country controlled by other countries.
A western think-tank scenario in the Middle East: In the next few years, ISIS and al-Qaeda will create a new terrorist group and ignite a war, drawing fighters from all over Europe, the Middle East, and South and Central Asia back into Syrian territory.
US proxy war with Russia in Syria
The second scenario of this western think tank, reports the increase in the possibility of conflict between Israel and Iran in the region.
In the third scenario, By 2025, Moscow’s competition in the region will increase. In this way, Russia is slowly but steadily expanding its influence in the Middle East and expanding its presence in places such as Al-Hamimim, Tartus and T-4 and all air, ground and intelligence bases.
According to this report, Moscow maintains its military capabilities in bases such as Hmeimim and Tartus air bases in Syria and provides military assistance to Lebanon, Iraq, Libya and Egypt.
In addition to its air, sea, and land capabilities, Russia has increasingly deployed irregular forces to expand its influence and established intelligence units for its Foreign Intelligence Service and its Main Intelligence Directorate.
In addition, Russia is establishing increasingly close diplomatic, intelligence, and military cooperation with Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad, Tehran, Tripoli, Cairo, and Ankara in order to succeed in competing with the United States as the dominant power in the Middle East.
In general, the Middle East becomes Russia’s sphere of influence, which includes Libya, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and to some extent Turkey in the Mediterranean Sea to Syria, and in some way cooperates with China. Russia is also improving its relations with Baghdad.
On the other hand, the United States, on the other hand, maintains close relations with Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf countries.
In their report, CIS think tank experts also proposed this scenario: in the years leading to 2025, Israel and Iran will carry out a series of military and cyber attacks against each other.
Israel is disappointed with Moscow due to its failure to curb Iran’s development. With the support of the United States, Israel conducts periodic attacks against the forces and infrastructure of pro-Iranian groups in the region.
According to the report, Israel is also making every effort to continue periodic assassinations of nuclear scientists inside Iran and to bolster its program of aggressive cyberattacks against infrastructure sites in Iran.
In addition, Russia is deploying more air and ground equipment to Syria, as well as naval vessels in the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea to prevent an Israeli blockade of Lebanon. China obviously remains neutral but provides necessary information and materials to Russia and Iran. As Russia’s military involvement increases, Israel formally requests military assistance from the United States.
Another scenario of the Western think tank: In the future, the Middle East will become a sphere of Russian influence, which includes Libya, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and to some extent Turkey in the Mediterranean Sea to Syria, and in some way cooperates with China.
Resurgence of terrorism in Afghanistan
The fourth scenario of the Western think tank about future developments in the Middle East includes; The resurgence of terrorism by Al-Qaeda, ISIS and other regional terrorist groups in Afghanistan. In addition to domestic attacks, al-Qaeda and ISIS Khorasan have acquired the ability and intention to carry out foreign attacks across Europe and the United States, and even against US allies, embassies, and American soil.
According to this scenario; The Taliban maintains a close relationship with the leadership of Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). According to US intelligence estimates, there are probably 2,000 to 4,000 Al-Qaeda fighters active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, mostly in the provinces of Badakhshan, Ghazni, Helmand, Khost, Kunar, Kunduz, Logar, Nangarhar, Nimroz, Nuristan, Paktia, and Zabul. In addition, the Taliban coordinate with other regional and international militant groups, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Some networks of East Turkestan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Lashkar-e-Islam in the region of Afghanistan and Pakistan also cooperate with the Taliban.
Pakistan’s intelligence agency has strengthened its ties with the Taliban over the past five years, regularly providing weapons, funding and training to Taliban forces. Due to the links between the Taliban and al-Qaeda, some of the equipment provided by Pakistan has been transferred to al-Qaeda fighters.
In this scenario, it is also claimed: In the coming years, there will be various attacks by al-Qaeda, of which two foreign attacks are prominent, including against American embassies in the region or American cities.
According to this report, the main militant group not aligned with the Taliban in Afghanistan is ISIS-Khorasan. After the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in August 2021, the new government tried to quickly consolidate power and suppress the opposition.
Anti-terrorism efforts against this ISIS branch have been prioritized. Regional partners are providing minimal counterterrorism support in an effort to stem the growing flow of migrants from Afghanistan. Even China—which intended to position itself as a key ally of the new government—failed to make significant efforts to counter ISIS, instead focusing on diplomatic and financial support to bolster the Taliban government.
In this report, it is estimated: economic collapse and increase in poverty rate under Taliban rule will facilitate recruitment for ISIS with stable income and allow it to remain resilient in the changing political and security environment.