Analysis of 6 surveys; The fall in the popularity of the Democrats in the multi-step congressional elections

The US mid-term elections will be held on November 8 (November 17) to determine the fate of 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 seats in the Senate. These elections are held in an atmosphere where the poor performance of the Biden administration as the President of the United States of America has endangered the future of the Democratic Party, at least in this election.

Looking at the results of recent polls, it becomes clear that Biden and his supporting political spectrum are in the worst possible situation and their popularity has reached the lowest level in the time period of January 2021, i.e. entering the White House so far; Popularity between 30 and 40 percent.

Gallup: 40% satisfaction of Biden and 21% of Congress
The results of the “Gallup” poll, which was published on Tuesday, November 1, showed that the political atmosphere for the 2022 mid-term elections was in favor of the Republican Party, and the level of satisfaction with the performance of the President and the American Congress was the lowest in history at 40 and 21, respectively. The percentage has been reached.

According to the Gallup poll, the president’s party has typically lost seats in midterm elections when approval ratings for its performance were below 50 percent and when approval ratings for Congress were at or below 35 percent. The pollster also added that midterm elections in the United States usually end in favor of the party that is not in power.

According to the survey, this year is the lowest level of satisfaction with the way things are going during the midterm elections. Meanwhile, 17% of Americans are satisfied with the situation, which is still 5% less than the previous lowest level of 22% in 2010.

drink Close competition between Democrats and Republicans
The “Pew” polling institute also published its report on October 20 (October 28), the results of which were different from other findings and polls and in favor of the Democrats, showing that 41% will vote for the Democrats and 40% for the Republicans.

According to Pew, 4 in 10 voters (40 percent) currently support or lean toward the Republican candidate in their district; While almost the same number support a democratic candidate (41%). About 2 in 10 voters support another candidate (5 percent) or are not sure which party to vote for (13 percent).

Drilling down into the results of the Pew poll, it becomes clear that voters were surveyed by gender, color and race, age, education, and more (chart above). For example, among men, 45% will vote for Republicans and 39% for Democrats, while the opposite is true for women. 43% of women support the Democratic candidate and 37% support the Republican representative.

Also, about half of white voters (49 percent) say they would support the Republican candidate if the election were held today, compared to 36 percent who would support the Democratic candidate. 7 in 10 black voters (69 percent) support the Democratic candidate, while only 4 percent support the Republican.

CNN; Biden is 40% popular and 55% unpopular
The results of the poll recently published by “CNN” show a 15% gap between Biden’s popularity and lack of popularity. Therefore, his supporters and opponents constitute 40 and 55 percent, respectively.

Reuters: 39% popularity of Biden
Reuters and Ipsos (a global market research and polling company headquartered in Paris) conducted a poll, the results of which show that Biden’s popularity has increased ahead of the midterm elections that will shape the rest of his term. The lowest level of his presidency is approaching.
In this two-day national poll, 39% of Americans approved of Biden’s performance. Previously, the level of satisfaction with Biden reached 36% in the months of May and June.

CBS News: Congressional Democrats lose by 13 seats
One of the polls related to the mid-term elections of the Congress was conducted in cooperation with the news channel “CBS News” and the “YouGov” institute, which reports an increase in the possibility of control of the House of Representatives by the Republican Party.
According to the results of this survey, if the congressional elections are held today (October 16-October 24) in the United States, the Republican Party will win 224 seats and the Democratic Party will win 211 seats in the House of Representatives.

According to this report, while in the previous poll, it was predicted that the Democratic Party would win 222 seats and the Republican Party would win 213 seats. This situation shows that the bottom of the scale weighs heavily in favor of the Republican Party.
While this survey presents the Republicans as the winner in the congressional mid-term races, the Democratic Party now holds 220 seats and the Republicans 212 seats.

Fox News; Biden is at the bottom of 33% popularity
The Fox News poll, as a pro-Republican media whose full support for Trump during his presidency was not hidden from anyone, indicates a sharp decline in Biden’s popularity on the eve of the mid-term congressional elections.
According to Fox News, “Most respondents (54%) said they would vote for someone else in the 2024 US presidential election, and only 33% were ready to vote for Biden again.”

In general, with a glance at the recent polls, a sharp decrease in the popularity of the Democrats and Biden as the leader of this party can be seen; His popularity, which was between 50 and 60 percent at the beginning of his administration, has reached between 30 and 40 percent after 2 years of his administration and within a few steps of the mid-term elections of the Congress; This trend, if continued, will narrow the field for the ruling political spectrum during the 2024 presidential elections.

attachments:

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-only-33-would-re-elect-biden-approval-rating-ticks-up
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/cbs-news-yougov-battleground-tracker-120318790.html
https://news.gallup.com/poll/404414/gop-political-winds-back-2022.aspx
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/10/20/the-midterm-elections-and-views-of-biden
https://www.cnn.com/polling/approval-rating-poll-of-polls