Arab embrace for Damascus – IRNA
The suspension of Syria’s membership in the Arab League following the country’s internal conflicts has exposed the hostility and irreconcilability of most Arab countries with the government of Bashar al-Assad. Two weeks ago, however, the Algerian foreign minister, whose country will host the Arab League summit in March 2022, said it was time for Syria to return to the bloc. Iran’s share of the Syrian economy is only three percent, but Turkey accounts for 30 percent of the country’s trade. According to the Vice President of the Chamber of Commerce, this situation shows our weakness in economic diplomacy.Officials in the Arab world have long been determined to travel to Damascus, where Abdullah bin Zayed met with Assad in Syria as part of one of his most recent diplomatic trips, marking the opening of relations after a decade. There is ample evidence of Arab governments trying to get closer to Syria, and this has led many observers of the developments in the region and the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic to ask whether one should be concerned about this process.
A look at the economic situation of Iran and Arab countries in relations with Syria
The normalization of relations with Syria is relevant in both economic and political-military-security axes. One of the biggest realities facing Syria is that after ten years of war, the country needs reconstruction. According to a report released by the United Nations in 2017, the cost of rebuilding Syria is $ 388 billion. Of course, in a meeting with the Russian parliament, the president announced this figure at $ 410 billion. Although the Islamic Republic of Iran has tried not to lag behind in the reconstruction process in Syria in recent years, Displays the restrictions in this area. “Mohammad Amirzadeh,” the vice president of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, said at a meeting of the board of representatives of this trade forum: “Iran’s share of the Syrian economy is only three percent, but Turkey has taken 30 percent of the country’s trade.” This shows our weakness in economic diplomacy.
“Seyed Ruhollah Latifi,” the spokesman for the customs, said in an interview with the “Bazar” website on November 17: “In the first seven months of this year, the volume of trade between Iran and Syria increased to 123 million, 895 thousand and 325 dollars, with the share of exports.” Iranian products have been 106 million 217 thousand 38 dollars. The total value of trade between the two countries in 1399 amounted to 139 million and 938 thousand and 65 dollars, which is a very small figure in Iran’s foreign trade. According to the latest customs announcement, in the 12-month period of 1999, about $ 73 billion was exported and imported from the country’s ports, which means that less than 2 tenths of the total value of Iran’s foreign trade in 1999 was related to Syria.
What is Tehran’s most important priority in relation to Syria?
Less than 2 tenths of the total value of Iran’s foreign exchange in 1999 was related to Syria.
According to what has been said, what has priority and prominence in the relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Syria are political-diplomatic as well as military-security issues rather than economic interests. In the field of strategic issues, the Islamic Republic of Iran is still trying to strengthen the position of Bashar al-Assad’s government, along with its main partner in the field of developments in Syria, Russia, while preventing the resurgence of Takfiri terrorism. On the other hand, projects such as the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut transit and strategic connection illustrate the long-term goals of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the future of Syria and show that the most important context in Tehran’s policy towards Syria is strengthening the axis of resistance.
Regarding the presence of the advisor of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Syria, which continues at the request of the legitimate government of this country, issues such as the infiltration of the Zionists into the surrounding areas of Iran, especially the Republic of Azerbaijan, have given new importance and dimensions to this presence. But the question remains, should we look with concern at the process of Arab states’ rapprochement with Syria and the normalization of relations?
Why Arab countries normalize relations with Syria and its consequences for Tehran
In an interview with IRNA, Dr. Javad Haghgoo, a faculty member at the University of Tehran and an expert on international relations, said that in order to normalize Syria’s relations with the Arab countries in the region, it should be noted that there are differences between Arab governments and this is not the case. That all Arab capitals pursue this goal in unison. The same issue can be considered as a theoretical introduction to explain this issue. The UAE, for example, has taken effective steps in this regard, but the Qataris have shown little interest in it. This issue itself needs to be investigated. Given the events that have taken place in the region for some time, especially the developments in Afghanistan and the Taliban’s domination of Afghanistan, this event should be considered a serious and fundamental stimulus to start a new wave of activities of seemingly Islamist terrorist groups. Like it or not, and despite the Taliban’s slogans that Afghanistan wants to be a normal player in the international system, recent Afghan news reports tell us that as the Taliban gain power, currents close to al-Qaeda and ISIS in Khorasan are gaining power. In Aqaba, this issue indicates important strategic and macro-developments in the region that need to be addressed. Projects such as the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut transit and strategic connection illustrate the Islamic Republic of Iran’s long-term goals for Syria and show that the most important context in Tehran’s policy towards Syria is to strengthen the axis of resistance.
In this regard, the analysis suggests that the bombings and terrorist operations that have targeted Shiites in recent weeks may not be so unrelated to the Taliban’s own intentions. There is a lot of evidence that in the not too distant future in Afghanistan and Iraq, etc., we will see an increase in the activities of extremist groups. Meanwhile, many countries in the region, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, etc., in the current situation, want to strengthen the network of governments that oppose the takfiri terrorist groups. The faculty member of the University of Tehran believes that when we look at the nature of the Syrian political system or the situation of the Brotherhood’s confrontation with Bashar al-Assad, the tendency of these Arab states will be understandable. From a futuristic point of view, the behavior of Arab countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is understandable.
In his view, the negative view of Qatar and Turkey on the normalization process can be explained from this perspective. In discussing the normalization of relations with Damascus, we must examine this process from the perspective of the will of the governments mentioned, not merely the will of Syria. All of these governments once tried to bring down the regime of Bashar al-Assad, but when they came to the conclusion that this goal could not be achieved, their plan changed: “The new map should provide a new explanation of the situation. In this new explanation, which can be called a triangular explanation, the three vertices of the triangle are influencing the trends in the region. On the one hand, Qatar and Turkey have generally taken advantage of the capacity of Takfiri terrorist groups and gained new energy as the Taliban regained power. Although Pakistan is not the Middle East, it is in the process alongside actors such as Qatar and Turkey. “At the other end of the spectrum is Iran, which stands alongside the Axis of Resistance, including Syria itself, and at the other end of the spectrum are the conservative governments of the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE, which compete with the other two.”
According to some analysts in the region, the proximity of the Arab states to Damascus will at least bring Tehran an advantage that could prevent Ankara from leaving Syria in the future.
According to Dr. Haghgoo’s analysis, in this period, considering the movements that Turkey, along with Pakistan, the Zionist regime and the brokerage of the Republic of Azerbaijan, have on the northwestern borders of Iran, and these developments can certainly not be considered separate from events beyond Iran’s eastern borders. With the progress of the Tehran-Riyadh talks, which are expected to lead to a domino effect with the talks with Cairo and Abu Dhabi, all indicate that in the new blockade of power in the region, normalization of Syrian relations with these countries can not be to the detriment of the Islamic Republic. We should not ignore the fact that Syria has known its friend and enemy in the worst conditions, especially since 2011, and we should not worry that Damascus will leave Iran behind. In the triangular model of the actors in the Middle East, in the normalization of the relations between the Arab countries and Syria, one end of the triangle (with the presence of the UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, etc.) to the other end includes Iran and the resistance countries including Syria, Yemen and Iraq and Lebanon. Despite the ups and downs of the two recent countries) is approaching.
One of the motives of the conservative Arab states’s closeness to the top, including the axis of resistance, is the restraint of the aggressive policies of the third head led by Turkey; An actor who has created many challenges in the region with Erdogan’s ambitions and “neo-Ottoman” policies, and these challenges will certainly increase.
As a result, as mentioned, a country like Turkey has 10 times more trade with Iran than Syria, which is due to the weakness of our trade diplomacy and the restrictions imposed by sanctions on the one hand and Turkey’s proximity to Syria and the economic capabilities of the Turks on the other. The equation is to the detriment of Iran. According to some analysts in the region, the proximity of the Arab states to Damascus will at least have the advantage for Tehran, which could prevent Ankara from leaving Syria in the future.
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