Ben Salman; From the desire to drag the war inside Iran to the resumption of diplomatic relations

According to Fars News Agency, the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to resume diplomatic relations, which was signed on Friday, 19 March, had many dimensions and analytical aspects, but perhaps the most important aspect is the reasons for convincing Riyadh to converge and avoid tension. “Mohammed bin Salman”, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and the number one decision-maker of Saudi Arabia, was directly involved in the tense situation with Iran that lasted for seven years. As the successor of his father and an ambitious young ruler who came to office with the slogan of reforms, he entered the war in Yemen in the continuation of the tension with Iran. A war that never benefited him and made him support the unrest in Lebanon and even the crisis in Syria.

The first part: We are taking the war inside Iran

The Saudi crown prince repeatedly took a stand against Iran not only in regional competitions, but also interfered in the country’s internal affairs. Perhaps the most important rhetoric of Bin Salman against Iran goes back to the interview with “Al-Saudi” channel in 2017; Where he publicly threatened to bring the war into Iran!

In this media interview, he pointed out that there is no common ground between Iran and Saudi Arabia and admitted: “How can we reach an understanding with them?” The logic of Iran is to lay the groundwork for the emergence of the Mahdi, which is achieved through the control over the Islamic world. The main goal of the Iranian system is to reach the Qibla of Muslims. We are not waiting for Saudi Arabia to become a battlefield, but we are trying to drag the battle into Iran… Iran’s extremism is preventing dialogue between us.”

Bin Salman, who was in charge of the Saudi Defense Ministry at that time, said that Iran is the cause of the war in Yemen and that the Yemeni forces are Tehran’s tools. When the host of Al-Saudiya TV asked him about the end of the war in Yemen, he replied: “We will eliminate the Houthis and Saleh in a few days.” At that time, more than two years had passed since the beginning of the war in Yemen, and the ambitious Saudi crown prince did not know that he was going to wade in its swamp for another six years; The one who had claimed at the beginning of the aggression of the Saudi coalition that this Arab campaign would not last more than a few weeks.

Second part: We want good relations with Iran

In May of this year, however, the Saudi Crown Prince, in a remarkable turn, withdrew from all his anti-Iranian positions in a press interview; This turn occurred after Yemen’s Ansarullah missiles had reached the depth of Saudi Arabia. In an interview with “Al-Arabiya” channel on Tuesday evening (May 8th), Bin Salman stated: “Iran is a neighboring country and we hope to have a good relationship with it. We want good relations with Iran. Our problem is Iran’s negative behavior and we are working with the countries of the region and the world to find a solution.

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia has also claimed that Saudi Arabia agrees with America on 90% of issues and that the United States is Riyadh’s strategic partner. Bin Salman added about his biggest problem, the war in Yemen: “We hope that the Houthis will come to the negotiating table to end the war, and the Saudi initiative to solve this issue is still standing.”

The American news agency “Reuters” analysis of this turn was remarkable; This media wrote in its report: “Mohammed bin Salman”, the Saudi crown prince, has adopted a more conciliatory public position towards Iran and is trying to reduce the long-standing hostility due to balanced economic considerations and differences with Washington on how to deal with Tehran’s regional behavior. Tensions have been rising between Riyadh and Tehran over the war in Yemen, and Yemen’s Ansarullah has stepped up attacks against Saudi Arabia at a time when Saudi Arabia is trying to attract foreign investment. The differences between the two regional powers intensified after the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, which Riyadh blames on Iran.

Three months before that interview and in March of last year, Bensalman talked to the American website “Atlantic”; Regarding Tehran-Riyadh relations, he stated: “They are our neighbors and will remain our neighbors forever. We can’t get rid of them and they can’t get rid of us either, so it’s better to solve the problems and look for ways that allow us to coexist. We held discussions for four months and heard many statements from Iranian leaders, which were welcomed by us in Saudi Arabia. We will continue to examine the details of these discussions and I hope that we will reach a position that will be good for both countries and create a bright future for Saudi Arabia and Iran.”

Before this, in October 2018, Bensalman gave an interview to the American channel “CNN” in which he abandoned his opposition to Iran and took a conciliatory approach.

The third part: Betting on unrest in Iran

That Al-Arabiya interview, which showed the peak of Bin Salman’s change of position towards Iran, was broadcast after the fourth round of Tehran-Riyadh regional negotiations; An interview that helped to hold the fifth round of negotiations hosted by the Baghdad government and in Iraq between the negotiation teams of the two countries. The sixth round, which was supposed to be held at the level of foreign ministers, was canceled due to the autumn unrest in Iran. Based on the analysis and monitoring of media activities by Saudi Arabia, observers of international developments identified the reason for the cancellation of the sixth round of negotiations as Riyadh’s calculation of internal disturbances in Iran.

Media affiliated with Saudi Arabia [چه رسانه‌هایی که در داخل این کشور مستقر هستند و چه رسانه‌هایی که در سراسر جهان با دلارهای ریاض مدیریت می‌شوند] They made a wide maneuver on the death of “Mehsa Amini”. Media such as International promoted the projects of sedition and chaos and division; To the extent that the Iranian authorities reacted to its consequences.

The authorities of Riyadh not only started a media war, but also expressed some positions from the international media platform against Iran’s security. “Khalid bin Salman”, the brother of the Saudi crown prince and the country’s ambassador in Washington, claimed in an interview with “Washington Post”: “The Iranian regime tried to block the way to the future. They have launched a backward revolution. We want to choose another path.”

Saudi support for internal unrest for Iranians had a history. The closest one happened in December 2016; Where some people started chaos and insecurity in the country under the pretext of economic demands. At the same time, Saudi users repeated Binsalman’s statements eight months ago with the hashtag “We are moving the war into Iran”. The same interview in which Saudi Crown Prince Tati talked about transferring the war to Iran; Saudi users claimed that bin Salman had kept his promise about Iran by reposting that video after the 96 riots!

Part IV: And finally, agreement

Finally, Al-Saud leaders, especially Bin Salman and his close advisers, came to the conclusion that in order to get rid of the tense cases they have opened in the region and also to strengthen their strategic partnerships with powers such as Beijing and Moscow, they have no choice but to agree with Iran and try to de-escalate. Now the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been realized after the effective mediation of China and the two sides will resume all their diplomatic relations in the coming months.

The website of the Lebanese network “Al-Akhbar” on Saturday, in a report about the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, pointed out several important points and wrote: The announcement of the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran at the initiative and supervision of China to resume diplomatic relations is a new event in the series of developments. It is happening in the region, and its effect will be extensive in regional and international changes. It is true that this decision to resume Tehran-Riyadh relations for some reasons [از جمله انتظار عربستان برای دیدن نتایج اغتشاشات در ایران] Delayed, however, the signing of the agreement by Riyadh at this exact time has many signs; Especially after the height of the efforts of the Zionist regime regarding the necessity of establishing an alliance with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf in order to strike Iran.

The entry of the Saudi regime into the phase of agreement after a long period of hostility is considered a significant turn in the policies of an inexperienced politician who has seen the results of his adventurous outlook in the past seven years. Riyadh, which once talked about dragging the war to Iran and it seems that at some points it even tried for it, is probably now aware of the undeniable geopolitical limitations in this direction. Thus, the interviews of seven years ago are gradually changing into a calmer tone, and on the other hand, the policy of full-scale hostility is turning into a willingness to compromise.

Of course, this agreement does not mean the solution of all cases between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Tehran will definitely monitor the behavior of Saudi Arabia, but as always, it will welcome constructive relations with its neighbors.

As the Saudi government realized that it should not side with the Americans in the matter of increasing oil production and was accused of supporting Russia, and as it accepted the oil deal with the yuan, it can probably accept other realities, especially at the regional level. Of course, we have to wait and watch the future behavior of the Saudis. Of course, any behavior in Riyadh will have a corresponding response in Tehran.

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