Bitcoin’s record-breaking deviation from the accumulation to flow model; The price should be 72 thousand dollars!

Bitcoin currently has the greatest distance (negative) with the price target of PlanB’s accumulation-to-flow (S2F) model; A deviation that has never been seen before.

To Report Cointelegraph, with the fall in the price of Bitcoin under the influence of the bankruptcy of the “FTX” exchange, the downward trend in the market has been strengthened even more. This drop is important for the Bitcoin network from many aspects, especially the activity of miners; But under the influence of this fall, some well-known criteria have also lost their validity.

One of these criteria is the accumulation-to-flow price prediction model, which has been criticized recently.

This model works on the axis of halving events (halving of block rewards) in the Bitcoin network and provides an upward perspective of the price of this digital currency for the coming years. The popularity of the accumulation-to-flow model also goes back to before the price of Bitcoin reached its all-time high in November 2021 (Aban 1400).

In this model, a place for price deviation is also considered, and the price is not supposed to always increase in the accumulation-to-flow model; However, even with this in mind, the current price of Bitcoin has an unjustified gap with the price target of this model.

According to data from the “S2F Multiple” Twitter page, Bitcoin should now trade at a price of around $72,000 according to the accumulation-to-flow model.

Analytical platform LookIntoBitcoin also has a tool to measure the deviation of the market price from the target price of the accumulation-to-flow model, which provides a similar conclusion of the current state of this index. Philip Swift, the founder of this platform, wrote on his Twitter that “Bitcoin has deviated more than ever to the bottom of the Accumulation and Flow Index”. He said, “The current deviation is equal to minus 1.26, and the previous historical peak of this deviation is equal to 1.21 and goes back to 2011.”

Despite all the criticisms, Planbey is still responsible for his creation and while defending the accumulation-to-flow model, he believes that this index is still effective.

He recently tweeted:

It seems that the world has come to an end; But FTX is probably only a small blip in the long-term outlook [بیت کوین] will be.

The accumulation-to-flow model was heavily criticized during 2022 and it was said that this indicator is baseless.

In response to the widening of the difference between the market’s current price and the target price of its model, Plan B has also said that imagining a larger deviation range for the price and keeping the model valid in that range is better than having no insight into the future of Bitcoin’s price.