Car price prediction in the final months of the year / Where does the car price come from?
According to the report of Economy Online car service; After a period of almost 6 months of stability, the car market has started an upward trend again since the middle of October. A look at domestic high-demand cars also shows a 10-20% price increase in the last month. This price increase among Iran Khodro products has been more visible than Saipa products.
Meanwhile, Peugeot ParsLX was priced at 372 million Tomans in mid-October, which increased by about 13% to 420 million Tomans. The price of Peugeot 207 panoramic gear has increased by more than 12% and the price of Peugeot 206 Type 2 has also increased by 9% during this period. The price of Quick also increased from 200 to 220 million tomans, which indicates a 10% increase. The price of Tiba 2 has also increased from 203 million tomans to 217 million tomans with an increase of about 7%.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Security announces the arrival of imported cars in the country from the end of February, and the financial statements of car manufacturers also indicate an increase in the amount of sales compared to last year. In fact, these two propositions mean an increase in the supply of cars in the market. But why, despite the increase in supply, the price of cars in the open market continues to rise.
Import and increase in supply did not control the car price
The first issue is that in the inflationary conditions of Iran’s economy, many goods have become an investment, and cars are no exception to this rule. Due to the price gap between the factory and the free market, speculative demand and investment have intensified. Therefore, in this situation, it seems that no matter how much the car supply increases, it cannot cover the demand of several million cars, especially at the factory price. For example, in the last stage of Iran Khodro’s immediate sale, more than 5.5 million people registered to buy less than 5 thousand cars.
The second issue is that, on the one hand, the real price of the car is not its factory price, and this can be seen from the loss of car manufacturers. On the other hand, the most important factor for determining a product such as a car is changes in inflation and specifically the price of the dollar. Therefore, it seems that to predict the car price, the best variable is to check the car dollar price trend. To investigate this issue, we consider the dollar price of Peugeot Pars, Peugeot 206 Type 2 and Tiba as the three most demanded cars in the Iranian market.
Dollar price of the car
Based on the calculations, the dollar price of Peugeot Pars is in the range of 11 to 13 thousand dollars, and according to the current dollar price in the open market, the equilibrium price of Peugeot Pars is in the range of 388 to 460 million tomans. The price of Peugeot Pars now in the open market is about 420 million tomans, which is about 12 thousand dollars. According to these numbers, it seems that the price of this car is in its average dollar price.
Based on estimates, the equilibrium dollar price of Peugeot 206 Type 2 is in the range of $9,500 to $11,250. Based on the average of these two numbers, it can be said that the equilibrium price of this car is in the range of $10,375. Considering the dollar price in the open market, the equilibrium price of this car can be considered to be around 365 million Tomans. The price of this car in the open market is reported to be 326 million tomans, which shows that this car is even lower than the equilibrium price being traded.
Estimates show that the equilibrium dollar price of Tiba 2 is in the range of 7,500 to 8,850 dollars. If we consider the average of these two prices, the equilibrium price of Tiba 2 can be considered to be around $8,200, which is equivalent to 288 million Tomans. Meanwhile, the price of this car in the open market is about 217 million Tomans.
In this section, it should be noted that the mentioned numbers are estimates. Considering the many variables affecting the price of the car, these numbers are definitely associated with errors and only the general trend of the market can be inferred with them to some extent. Therefore, the calculated numbers should not be used as a criterion for your economic decisions.
(For a detailed study of the report on how to calculate the equilibrium price, read this report.)
Car price prediction
According to the estimates, it seems that the price of the car at the current levels of the dollar price is prone to continue the upward trend rather than having the potential to decrease. Perhaps it can be said that in the best case and if there is no significant fluctuation in the currency market, the prices in the car market will experience a stable trend in the last months of the year, but the decrease in car prices from the current levels seems a little far from expected. .