Domestic dollars at risk; Dealers are the watchers of emotional purchases

According to the report of Iran Economist, the reduction of fluctuations and lack of demand for currency were the two main indicators of informal markets in 1402, this shows first of all the success of the policies of the central bank and the currency and gold exchange center, and the need to pay more attention to policies that suppress speculation. It shows in the markets.

In fact, in 1402, the central bank was able to increase the transparency of exchanges by creating a suitable platform for real currency exchanges and reduce the possibility of price fixing by dealers in real needs to zero.

This issue gave the first blow to the informal markets because in the absence of real demand, the motivation for speculative activities also reached its minimum and it was no longer bought that some people want to heat up the market and sell the currency to them at a high price.

Therefore, in 1402, the private market of dealers became less volatile so that the market maker could manage the exchange rate more easily than in previous years, according to “Nod Ekhmani”, if we look at the trend of exchange rate changes in the informal market, we will see that the ceiling The movement of this market has shortened from the range of 55,000 at the beginning of the year to the range of 52,000 in the fall and winter of 1402. At the same time, reaching the same price ceiling was done with the help of news and rumors and media waves, and the fundamental factors of the market are still stable. And they play the reduction of the exchange rate.

In this regard, factors such as the increase of oil revenues by more than 43%, the reduction of the liquidity growth rate to the range of 25-27%, the reopening of the international currency credit line for the Iranian banking system, the replacement of non-sanctioned exchange routes for commercial transfers, access to foreign exchange sources and growth of more than 4% of Iran’s economy.

These cases caused the process of currency allocation in the official market to intensify and oil currencies in the Nima system faced an oversupply. But while the real currency markets were in a stable condition, during the past days, some tried to increase their rates by surfing the war news and attributing this news to the Iranian market. Rates that remained without buyers and could not warm up the frozen market.

According to experts, the lack of demand makes prices fragile, they say that in this situation, if the market maker decides to intervene in the market, he will have an easy job and can simply break the dealers’ rates, an action that is currently being taken by the policy maker in the markets. The official is followed and the market maker has not shown any desire to be directly present in the informal markets.

* Domestic dollars are at risk / BRICS will break the dollar

In the face of long-term inflation, American bills have become popular among Iranian households as one of the savings options.

But with the serious actions of major economic countries such as China, India, Russia, Brazil and the countries of the Persian Gulf to remove the dollar from their trade exchanges, the power to maintain the value of the dollar is also severely threatened, and it is possible that with the strengthening of other currencies in world trade, The value of the dollar will also drop sharply.

This issue has even been pointed out by American experts and they have considered the possibility of emergence of currency competitors of the dollar and the decline of the purchasing power of the American currency as very likely due to the increasing acceptance of new trade and regional agreements such as BRICS, ECO and Shanghai.

This issue can also affect that part of Iranian households’ savings that are kept in the form of dollars or currencies related to it. Therefore, experts advise people to consider the increase in the credit risk of the dollar in the world and to replace the currency in the composition of their assets.

According to experts, the introduction of alternative currencies by the BRICS or Shanghai member countries can quickly reduce the purchasing power of the dollar and hit the dollar’s assets.

* People should not make hasty and emotional decisions during currency fluctuations

Masoud Daneshmand, a member of the Chamber of Commerce, says about the recent events in the foreign exchange market: What is happening in our foreign exchange market is a shock, unfortunately, sometimes in this situation, people make hasty and emotional decisions and go to buy dollars, and those who have dollars They also try to maintain it.

He added: “If the government does not give in to this dollar shock and the central bank has a reasonable intervention to adjust and stabilize the price, we will overcome this wave and there will be no problem.”

This member of the Chamber of Commerce stated: Based on the experience of the past few months, the central bank has a good ability to control the currency market and such fluctuations. People should also know that this increase in the exchange rate is temporary and will be controlled because the increase in the exchange rate in the past one day is emotional. That will be fixed soon.

* Buying and selling is not done with the current prices of free currency

Majidreza Hariri, the head of the joint chamber of commerce of Iran and China, also says in this regard: There is no doubt that the main reason for the fluctuation in the currency market was the crisis in the region and the attack on Yemen, and we have also witnessed much smaller and more limited regional events in the past years. We were fluctuating in the currency market. Of course, the recent fluctuations in the currency market have been in the range of one or two thousand tomans, which should not be considered a big and long-term fluctuation in the currency market.

And he said: It should be noted that the fluctuation and increase in currency prices in recent days are not seen and recorded in real transactions, and rather than being real, the numbers are cross-sectional.

Hariri added: In fact, there is no transaction at all at these prices because the majority of our currency is directed for official import through the central bank channel and the current numbers of the currency market are mostly in small and informal markets.

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