Efficiency of markets in July 1401/ growth of commodity markets, decline of 3 financial markets
According to Tejarat News, the fourth month of the year ended while all financial markets fell in its last week. But in general, Efficiency of financial and commodity markets in July 1401 how was it
Dollar price
Dollar price The National Exchange had a growth of 0.76% in July. This is despite the fact that the dollar was in the second place after gold with a positive return of 7.82 in June.
National ExchangeOn June 31, he announced the sale rate of the dollar at 27,637 tomans. Meanwhile, the national exchange rate was recorded at 27,846 Tomans on Thursday, July 30.
In the free market, there were many fluctuations last month, and the dollar fluctuated between two channels this month. But in the end, it ended its work with a declining trend.
gold price
On the other hand, The efficiency of the markets in TirThe price of gold dropped by 5.63% last month. This is despite the fact that last month, gold had the highest positive return among the financial markets with an increase of 10.11.
gold price On the last day of June 1401, it was one million 435 thousand 886 Tomans. While the gold market reached the price of one million 355 thousand 89 Tomans on July 30.
Prices for coins
Coin market buyers also lost money last month. The drop in the price of the new design coin was 4.52%. While the coin experienced a positive return of 6.90% in Khordad.
Prices for coins The new plan was 15,500,000 tomans on the last day of June and reached 14,800,000 tomans on the last working day of July.
The price of gold and coins fluctuated a lot in the second month of the year under the influence of the price of the dollar and ounce. Gold reached about 1 million 400 thousand tomans, but then it fell to about 1 million 340 thousand tomans. The coin also reached the final level from the channel of 15 million tomans. Although both of them ended the last working day of July with an increase, but finally, they had a negative return this month.
Exchange
On the other hand, Market efficiency in July 1401Overall Index Exchange It also fell last month. The June stock market ended at the level of 1 million 539 thousand 630 units.
Meanwhile, the total index of the stock market on the last working day of July was 1 million 471 thousand 898 units. These figures mean a 4.40% drop in the total index. The stock market was the only financial market that had a negative return in June with a drop of 2.54.
Housing
Further review The efficiency of the markets in TirIt should be mentioned about housing that was associated with growth.
to report Statistics Center The price index of consumer goods and services of the country’s households in this group increased by 3.9 percent in the fourth month of 1401 compared to the previous month. This figure for June this year was 2.3%.
Durable goods
On the other hand, Market efficiency in July 1401the market of durable goods (cars and household appliances) was also bullish last month.
The price index of consumer goods and services of the country’s households in this group grew by 1.4% in the fourth month of 1401 compared to the previous month. This figure was 3.3 for the previous month.
Effective signals on market performance
According to Tejarat News, the financial markets have been affected in recent times Vienna talks and political news were located
Financial markets in Iran especially Dollar price Usually to political news especially about Nuclear negotiations have been sensitive This week, the trip of the senior political officials of Russia and Turkey to Iran was among the important political news. In particular, the presence of Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, in the country had signals for the dollar market, followed by gold and coins.
Two important political events took place this week. One was US President Joe Biden’s visit to the region and the second was Putin’s visit to Tehran today.
This news made the price of the dollar in the free market fluctuate and decrease in the last four days. Analysts believe that this price reduction was due to the formation of some positive political expectations. Political trips could lower the price of the dollar.
At the same time, Iran and the opposite sides continue to accuse each other of indecisiveness. Nasser Kanani, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, wrote in a tweet on his personal page: The false dichotomy between the JCPOA (which Iran, unlike the US, is still a member of) and the good relations between Iran and its neighbors, including Russia, does not hide the fact that indecision America, the covenant-breaker, is the most important obstacle to reaching an agreement.Irena).
On the other hand, the head of British intelligence considered the ability of the parties participating in the nuclear negotiations to revive this agreement to be unlikely.
He said: I think that the agreement is definitely on the table; And the European powers and the (US) government have been very clear about this, and I don’t think the Russians and the Chinese will stand in the way of an agreement. But I don’t think Iranians are looking for it (choice).
The future of financial markets
Ali Sadeghin, an expert on financial markets, said in a conversation with Tejarat News: In general, the trend of the dollar can be summarized in two parts; One part is market-making policies and the other part is the fundamental variables that determine the price of the dollar.
He continued: From the perspective of market-making policies, it is expected that in the next one to two weeks, there will still be supply in the Nima system.
This expert also said: the pressure of market supply in the next month is still there. But from September onwards, when the budget deficit worsens, fundamental variables show more effect. On the other hand, political news is somewhat more challenging. As a result, we see more price increases.
Barzo Haqshanas, an expert in financial markets, believes that the ambiguity in Vienna negotiations And the country’s inflationary outlook shows that probably the prices in the market will increase in August Gold and coins and for the exchange rate to grow.
Questionable central bank statistics
In the meantime, the latest report of the central bank from the selection of economic statistics shows that the increasing coefficient of liquidity and monetary base in June this year was a decrease compared to March 1400. Of course, the liquidity of June 1401 compared to March 1400 has grown by 5.6%.
The increasing coefficient of liquidity in June compared to March has also been announced as negative 4%. Of course, the one-year growth of the increasing coefficient of liquidity was 7.8%.
Also, the monetary base has reached 6403.7 thousand billion Rials in June this year, which has grown by 27.8% compared to June last year. The monetary base growth of June this year compared to March 1401 has also been announced as 6%.
Of course, the growth of the monetary base in June compared to April was negative 3 thousand billion tomans.
At the same time, the report of the National Monetary and Banking Authority shows that the government’s borrowing from the central bank continues. In fact, in addition to the growth of monetary base and liquidity, which are the main factors of inflation, in recent months, public sector debts to banks have also increased rapidly.
What does the increase in government debt mean to banks?
Earlier, Haqshanas, an expert on financial markets, told TejaratNews: Contrary to the statistics published by the central bank about the decrease in liquidity growth rate in Farvardin, Ardibehesht’s data show another reality.
He added: In addition, in the first month of this year, this institution has taken measures that will have inflationary effects in the future. Among them, state companies have taken large loans from the banking network with the approval of the central bank.
Haqshanas said: In fact, this institution is playing with statistics to make the growth rate of liquidity appear to be decreasing. When government companies receive facilities from banks, the central bank has actually started printing money with a delay. In other words, the government does not put its hands in the pockets of this institution, but in reality it has indebted its companies to the banking network.
This financial market expert considered the payment of cash subsidies as another sign of the possibility of inflation. He explained: Since the beginning of the year, a large amount of cash subsidies have been paid to the people, and it is not clear where the financial resources came from. If this issue has made the government indebted to the banks, it will show its negative effects in the future, including in the dollar, gold and coin markets.
Signals for the housing market
Last month, signals were also issued for commodity markets such as housing and automobiles. In the case of housing, a sharp reduction in construction can affect the market.
The circulation of housing production in Tehran has reached the lowest level in the last 18 years during the first quarter of this year. Statistics that are not pleasant for buyers or sellers.
The new statistics of issued building permits show that between 80,000 and 100,000 residential units were built in Tehran every year. This number has been decreasing since 2014 and reached 60,000 residential units and 40,000 residential units last year. But this number dropped significantly in the first quarter of this year and reached 6,000 units.
In this regard, it is recommended to read the new statistical message report to housing applicants.
Mansour Ghaibi, an expert on the housing market, also said in a conversation with Tejarat News: In economics, the balance of supply and demand balances the price. Currently, there is neither sufficient supply nor clear demand in the field of housing. For this reason, we see speculative demand in the housing economy.
He explained: In general, if the production of housing in the country faces stagnation and low production, the accumulation of demand will intensify even in the field of consumption. On the other hand, as a catalyst, the demand for capital, which causes the imbalance of housing prices, aggravates the problem of price increase.
Signals for the car market
In the automobile market as well, despite the slight increase of about 9% in production, the accumulated losses of automobile manufacturers have also increased sharply. In the meantime, car price fluctuations have decreased compared to the previous days. But the market is still in recession.
Amirhassan Kakaei, an expert in the automobile industry, said in a conversation with Tejarat News: “Currently, the prices are fluctuating.” But the market is in recession. As long as the Vienna negotiations and the issue of car imports to the country are not finalized and come to a conclusion, these fluctuations seem to continue.
Political signals and macroeconomic indicators Efficiency of markets are effective
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