Failing the promises of the central bank, the dollar continues to rise
According to the report of Iran Economist, in spite of the strict promises and closing of foreign trade activities with the strategy of lowering the price of the dollar by the central bank, the price of the dollar is on the way to jump and now stands at the border of 55 thousand tomans per dollar. .
Mohammad Reza Farzin, the head of the central bank, what other powers does he want to control the dollar price so that he can achieve the goal of stabilizing the dollar price and lowering the flag of the free currency market? We have to wait and see which restrictions will be issued this time to curb the demand. With all the strictures that the government and the central bank have imposed on the currency market, the fact is that the lack of supply of dollars is still not enough even with the skill of the demand. The calm days of the currency market are over and the new political and economic developments have illuminated the growth engine of the dollar price. The American banknote, which was fluctuating in a certain price range until the middle of last week, has started its upward movement for a few days and is leaving behind the price steps in the 50 thousand toman channel. Some are looking for the root of the increase in the price of the dollar in negative political news and are trying to put them in a buying position by strengthening the expectations of traders. Surveys show that in recent days, the weight of demand is heavier than supply and the number of buyers in the market has increased. However, there is no news of currency exchange and supply strengthening by the central bank to lower the price of the dollar in the market. But some monetary signals that have reached the market are the reason for the increase in currency prices, and they say that the record-breaking creation of money, the increase in the ratio of money to liquidity, and the inflationary expectations of the society are the engines driving the growth of the dollar price in the market. It seems that the return of prosperity among currency traders after several weeks of stagnation indicates the market’s upward prospects in the coming months.
Yesterday, the currency market started its work with a price increase. The American banknote was able to go up one step in the foreign exchange market trading yesterday and was bought and sold at rates above 54 thousand tomans. Investigations show that yesterday the dollar even went up to a step of 55 thousand tomans, however, it stopped climbing further and retreated to the rates of 54 thousand and 700 tomans. At the time of writing this news, the dollar was traded at the rate of 54,750 tomans. The trend of increasing prices in the foreign exchange market started from the days leading up to the end of last week, so that the American bill first started its price increase in the channel of 52 thousand tomans and in the transactions of Thursday it was able to enter the channel of 53 thousand tomans. Based on this, it can be said that the rate of increase in the price of the dollar has been so high that in just a few days, we have seen the rise of the American bill from the channel of 52 thousand tomans to near the channel of 55 thousand tomans. The interesting point is that in recent weeks, the currency market went back and forth between two price channels of 51 and 52 thousand tomans, and there was no change in the mentioned price range. Some people said that the reason for the drop in the price of the dollar in the last few weeks is the stagnation prevailing in the market. Now, with the end of Ramadan, some are reporting the return of prosperity among traders.
It seems that the noises of the oil minister about the sudden jump in crude oil exports and the timely receipt of exported oil have not convinced the foreign exchange market that more dollars will be supplied to the market and the dollars will probably be spent in other activities and sectors. As expected, the government and the central bank have lost the ability to exchange currency, and this way to stabilize the price of valid currencies has been closed.
An important issue that experts emphasize is the state of economic variables. They say that the government’s budget deficit, the continuation of the money creation process that has shown itself in the monetary statistics of the Central Bank, and also the record-breaking inflation are the real engines of the growth of the dollar price. The latest report of the central bank also shows that the volume of liquidity has reached a record of 6103 thousand billion tomans. Meanwhile, the 25% share of money in liquidity, which shows the strengthening of inflationary expectations, is another important factor that affects the price trend in the currency market.