Fluctuations in the price of imported cars ‌

What is clear is that the downward trend in prices is mostly due to cars that have had a large price bubble for the past three years and at the same time stopped importing, and have taken the top of the market pyramid in terms of price. These cars are referred to as luxury cars. According to market participants, other existing imported cars, which are far from luxury cars, have also been less affected by the parliament’s decision. Thus, the luxury products on the market, whose prices have reached over five billion in the last three years, have been more affected by the liberalization decree, and the price bubble of this type of car has been largely emptied.

Accordingly, other cars in the price range of one billion and under one billion also faced price declines in the same period, but their bubble has not been emptied as much as luxury products.

Thus, in a situation where the car market has faced a 7% drop in prices over a 10-day period, Ruhollah Izadkhah, a member of parliament and a car parole designer in the Industries and Mines Commission, stated that with the final approval of this plan by the Guardian Council, 30 to 40% of import prices Available in the market will decrease. Now the question that arises is about the speed of the market reaction to the parliament’s decision. On Wednesday, September 15, the Islamic Consultative Assembly voted in favor of the 4th Amendment of the Industries and Mines Commission in order to liberalize imports, while from the 26th of Saturday, the fall in prices in the foreign products market increased significantly. What is clear is that during these 10 days, the behavior of the car market players changed, so that customers stopped buying in the hope that prices would fall further, while sellers were actively present in the market. Surprisingly, during this time, cars such as the Optima, Cleos, Elantra and other zero-kilometer cars were found in abundance in showrooms or online niche markets.

What is clear is that these cars were seen after three years of import suspension, because the owners of these cars finally decided to withdraw their capital from the depot and sell their speculative product. Because considering the possibility of import liberalization, it seems that the depot of these cars is no longer suitable. Meanwhile, some opponents of imports and market stakeholders widely disappointed market traders with the release of the car and conveyed this warning to the market by publishing an expert report of the Parliamentary Research Center or the comments of some members of the Expediency Council and the opposition of the Supreme Supervisory Board. They said that car imports would not be resumed. Although the warning did not affect the market, the Guardian Council’s objection eventually halted the downward trend in prices. What is clear is that the car market can be considered a mirror of sensible decisions, far from the excitement of the parliament and the government. In the last three years, after the import ban was stopped, dealers and speculators took full advantage of the turmoil in the foreign car market. . Thus, it seems that if the two objections of the Guardian Council are corrected by the Industries and Mines Commission, we will see a further fall in prices in the market. Under these circumstances, however, some market participants believe that the greater impact of imports has a great deal to do with the volume and number of cars allowed by the Competition Council and the final tariffs. If import tariffs are reduced by imported products in order to regulate the country’s car market, we will definitely see more prices fall.

In any case, it is clear that opponents and stakeholders of the current market situation will make great efforts to thwart the liberalization of imports. This is at a time when the car market has shown that the continuation of the import ban is only in the interest of profiteers and speculators, and the customer is the real victim of the decision of the twelfth government of the last three years. A simple book of accounts shows that the liberalization decree in 10 days has led to a 7% reduction in the price of imports, so if this decree passes the Guardian Council filter, the price drop figures will definitely go up, and this is in the interest of the imported car customer. The market showed that the expected inflation of customers has now reached zero, while it seems that the parliament and the government should not change the path of import liberalization in favor of speculators.

Reaction of market participants to the parliament’s decision

The situation in the car market was at its peak before the approval of the MPs to amend Article 4 of the plan to organize the car industry, and prices were rising under the influence of the exchange rate. But the parliament passed a kind of return to the car market, especially the market of imported cars. After the parliament passed, we saw a 7% drop in car prices. However, the news of the return of the mentioned resolution by the Guardian Council to the parliament stopped the downward trend of prices. Now the question that arises is which cars experienced the biggest price drop during this period? In response to this question, Mustafa Khedri, an activist in the car market, says that the parliament’s decision has emptied most of the bubbles of cars that are at the top of the price pyramid and are referred to as luxury cars. According to this market activist, the more we move down from the top of the pyramid, the less the price of cars will be affected by the parliament’s decision. While Khedri believes that the price of luxury cars is more influential, Mehdi Dadfar, secretary of the Importers’ Association, has a different opinion and believes that the price of all imported cars has been affected to some extent by the parliament. Dadfar tells our correspondent that the news of the parliamentary resolution somehow lured the owners of imported cars, and they sought to sell the car at their disposal by analyzing that the blocked car import route would be reopened in a short period of time.

The secretary of the Importers’ Association believes that each of the cars on the market lost a percentage of its price under the influence of the said decree. However, as mentioned, this resolution has been returned to the parliament by the Guardian Council in order for the representatives to resolve some of the ambiguities of the Guardian Council in this regard. As some deputies, including Javad Hosseini Kia, a member of the Industries Commission, have commented, the Guardian Council’s objections are formal, not substantive, and the Industries Commission will work to address them.

But despite the above-mentioned analysis, the news of the return of the parliamentary resolution by the Guardian Council had an impact on market prices. Khedri says that the return of the parliamentary resolution by the Guardian Council not only stopped the downward trend in car prices, but also saw the prices of some cars move up the road. Dadfar also believes that the Guardian Council reversed the impact of the parliamentary resolution, which caused the car price to fall. However, considering the reversal of the resolution between the Guardian Council and the parliament, it has also been speculated that the resolution will not be able to pass through the neck of the Guardian Council and become law, so we will see the car import route to the country blocked.

If this speculation becomes a reality, how will the market react to it? Khodri says: “If this resolution of the deputies fails to satisfy the opinion of the members of the Guardian Council, not only will we see a re-growth of prices in the market, but the price of cars will also exceed the previous prices.” Dadfar also said in connection with the Guardian Council’s non-compliance with the parliament’s decision to liberalize car imports: the continuation of the car import ban, despite the hopes that have been created in the car market, will put prices in a new direction. According to the secretary of the Importers’ Association, if the parliamentary resolution fails to satisfy the members of the Guardian Council, the growth of prices will be such that we will see the creation of a new price ceiling in the car market.

An examination of the prices of imported cars in one of the online demand markets in the period of 10 days shows that the price charts of some of these products, despite the return of the parliamentary resolution by the Guardian Council, have not only not seen growth but have continued to move down the road. Others have been stable. In this regard, the newspaper has examined the ups and downs of 10 selected cars in a period of 10 days, according to which the Hyundai Tucson has seen the largest price drop in the mentioned period. At the beginning of the mentioned period, this car was traded with an average price of 734 million Tomans, but at the end of the 10-day period, its average price reached about 639 million Tomans.

In other words, this product of Hyundai brand has lost about 13% of its price and its price has decreased by 95 million Tomans in the mentioned period. Toyota لو Hilux is another product that has seen the biggest price drop in the mentioned period after Hyundai Tucson.

Examining the price chart of this car shows a decrease of about 12.5% ​​in its price. In other words, this car, which could be traded with an average price of about 700 million Tomans for zero and functional models, saw a drop of about 88 million Tomans and its price fell to around 613 million Tomans. Kia Cerato is also in third place in terms of price loss in the 10-day period. This car was priced at 503 million Tomans on average in the market for the zero and used model. But at the end of the mentioned period, with a drop of nearly 60 million Tomans, it is traded with an average price of about 443 million Tomans. Therefore, this product of Kia brand has lost more than 11.5% of its price. Sportage, another product of this Korean brand that is present in the Iranian market, ranks fourth in the table with the highest price drop.

Kia Sportage was priced at 767 million Tomans on average for the zero model and performance. But this car, with a drop of more than 9%, stabilized its average price at 697 million Tomans. Toyota Camry ranks fifth in the table. This popular product of this Japanese automaker had an average price of about 808 million Tomans for the zero and used model at the beginning of the mentioned period, but with a drop of more than 70 million Tomans at the end of the mentioned period, its price reached 737 million Tomans on average. .