Forecast of the housing market in 1402 / Should we buy land or an apartment? – Tejarat News
According to Tejarat News, the economist Peyman Molavi said that the next year will be the year of survival in the markets and said to Tejarat News: The situation has become such that all people are involved in the issue of what to do with their property.
He added: “The reality is that money is melting and in such a situation it is impossible to speak optimistically.” All the people who cannot become Elon Musk, Warren Buffet or Bill Gates! They have to maintain the value of their money and property in this situation.
Land or apartment?
In response to the question of which of the two options of land and apartment in the real estate market is better for investment, this financial market expert said: Land price returns have always been higher than housing in recent years. But it is important to know whether the land is 6 dong or not? Can it be bailed or not? and such cases.
He added: This is despite the fact that the property can be mortgaged or rented easily and has a tangible return. In fact, in this, the investor’s income flow strategy is important.
Molvi said: The first and most important thing to pay attention to when it comes to housing and activities in this market is the real interest rate. As long as a stable negative real interest rate dominates the economy, the trend of price growth in the housing sector will continue. Because when the real interest rate in the country’s economy became positive during the past years, the recession overshadowed the transactions of the housing market.
He added: Currently, the real interest rate is negative 20%, this shows the continued growth of prices in the housing market.
This economist said: The second most important thing about the housing market is the value of the dollar. The dollar value of housing fluctuates around $1,000 per square meter. Whenever this index crosses the lower border, an important signal is sent to the housing market that price growth is on its way.
He added: In December 2017, the average housing price in Tehran was 9 million tomans per square meter. At that time, the price of the dollar fluctuated from 4,200 tomans to 18,700 tomans. After this, what happened was that the return on housing dollars reached 100% in less than 3.5 months.
Molvi stated: We are currently in such a situation, but the growth of housing prices will not be as high as in 1997, and it is expected to be slightly lower than that.
Will housing prices rise?
Molvi added: It is expected that housing prices will increase by 40% by June 1402. The reason for this price increase will be inflation. We should not fall into the trap of arguments such as the reason for the increase in housing prices is the increase in the dollar rate. Rather, the main reason for the increase and growth of prices in the market of housing, cars and the dollar itself was and is the inflation rate.
Molavi stated: The average housing price in Tehran was 48 million Tomans in the December report and it has certainly grown by 20%. Of course, we may not see growth in this market in April of next year, but this is not a miracle of the central bank! In fact, the market is sleeping during this period due to the holiday of Nowruz.
This expert of financial markets added: It is likely that the growth of the housing market will reach 40% from January of this year to June of next year. The reason for that is the decisions and policies of the central bank that limit one market and move the demand to another market.
Molavi stated: inflation is the growth factor of this market; It is not a reason to say that the dollar went up. In fact, the growth factor of property and all markets is inflation! He said: In January and February, we have seen a 5% increase in housing prices and in March, more than 5%!
This financial market expert stated: But the housing market is a fair market and no one can make new and strange decisions for this market; You saw that the tax on luxury homes was not approved in the end because this market is not controlled.
Molloy advised that if a person has capital to buy a house, it is better to buy the first house wherever he can, because with this process, we are getting further away from owning a house every day.
Where is the rental market going?
This financial market expert said about the situation of the rental market: saying that the rental price should not increase by more than 25% is not possible. If the policy maker does not increase the liquidity and does not fight above 36%, there is no need for these decisions!
Molloy stated: The real estate market is a source of income for many people and they use it to maintain the value of their property. In fact, the government cannot control this market by order.
He explained with an example: In Austria, after the First World War, the approach of socialism prevailed, and the government said that you have no right to raise the rent; Three years later, Vienna faced problems and no one was entering the housing market to invest. It must be accepted that the problem is elsewhere and it shows its effect in the markets.
Molloy emphasized: Investing in the housing market has good returns. Mortgage in this market means yield, collateral is yield, and in general, investing 50 to 60 percent in this market is profitable.
You can read the details of this conversation in the report “In which markets should we invest?” read.