Forecast of the stock market on 16 February 1401 / Which industries are more attractive for investment? – Tejarat News
According to Tejarat News, the trend of the capital market on the trading day of the weekend was followed in a way that a dull day was recorded with a significant decrease in the value of transactions and the withdrawal of more than 320 billion Tomans of real shareholders’ money from the market.
During the last two weeks, the capital market took a negative trend. Although the total index and the equal weight index both recorded positive numbers on the trading board, it cannot be said that it passed attractive trades. In general, individual stocks outperformed the market as a whole.
It can be said that the whole market was largely affected by the car group, which was reformed according to the margins and news around this industry.
Considering that the total index had risen above the range of 1,600,000 units, the return of this indicator below this range and its placement in the 1.5 million channel has doubled the uncertainties in the stock market.
Capital market risks
If we want to speculate about the future of the market, it can be done in different ways. By default, there are a series of risks in the capital market. For example, capital market activists and residents have known for several years that gas outages will occur in winter for some industries and electricity outages in summer for a number of groups, which will lead to a decrease in production and efficiency of these industries and companies.
These types of risks are considered as accepted risks in the market, but sometimes other risks are imposed on the market. The recent challenge of selling cars in the stock market is one of these examples. In this case, it is clear that the supply of cars in the commodity exchange will benefit the society and the capital market as a whole.
Another aspect of this review can be short-term news and its impact on the stock market. For example, the news of setting new interest rates and facilities by the Central Bank, issues such as the budget bill, which will have a great impact on the operating joint-stock companies in terms of fundamentals. Another example of this type of news is political risks and news that affect the free dollar rate.
The hidden side of the car supply in the commodity exchange
What is evident in car transactions is the huge profit of dealers and the distribution of rent with the car lottery mechanism. The advantage of selling the car on the commodity exchange is that the profit from the sale of the product will go to the producer’s account and thus to the shareholders instead of the pockets of dealers and rent-seekers.
The importance of the issue increases when we know that car manufacturers have outstanding financial facilities and the compensation is from printing money that the Central Bank has compensated for the lack of liquidity of the banks. An increase in the monetary base will cause more inflation, and this means that subsidies will be paid to automobile manufacturers from the pockets of the entire Iranian people.
The motivation of stock market investors
What makes some people invest or hold their shares in such a situation, which is associated with many risks, is inflationary expectations.
Therefore, taking into account the growth of parallel markets and the backwardness of the Tehran Stock Exchange, people tend to share in industries and companies that are less affected by the budget bill and the central bank’s foreign exchange policies, such as keeping the Nima dollar rate constant at 28,500 tomans. .
It goes without saying that experts believe that due to limited resources and facilities, the government will not be able to maintain and control the price of Nima dollar at the rate of 28,500 tomans.
But by the end of the year or in the next 6 months to one year, assuming global prices remain stable, industries that can increase rates along with inflation and be less harmed by laws such as the budget bill and the Nima exchange rate seem attractive.
In this situation, what industries will be attractive for investment?
To predict the stock market in the medium and long term, it should be kept in mind that, for example, the tile and ceramic group or glass manufacturing companies or some symbols of the drug group have these conditions.
Overall, it seems that if the conditions continue in the current form, the correction that the market has seen will continue, but in the next six months to a year, there are very attractive industries and stocks that can be invested in.
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