Forecast of the stock market on Saturday, October 1, 1402 / Charge the stock market with positive news for the steel group?
According to Tejarat News, the summer of 1402 saw off the Tehran stock market with low trading on its last trading day and started the new season. After the ups and downs of the news from May until now, the shareholders are still waiting for the strong start of the next wave of the upward rally of the index. Can the beginning of the third of the year promise this encouraging news for the people of the capital market?
After the excitement subsided due to the pumping of positive news, such as the formulation of the feed rate of refineries and petrochemicals and the increase of the base rate of the dollar in the calculation of the base price of petrochemical and refining products in the commodity exchange, the market is stuck in the phase of settling down. From the point of view of experts, the positive point of these market days is resistance against heavy negatives and staying within the current limits. But shareholders still expect the value of their portfolio to increase. What conditions are needed to prepare the market for the start of strong positive days like the beginning of this year?
Rumors of the possibility of licensing the prices of parts makers brought the spare parts group to the positive peak of the fluctuation range on the day of low market activity.
The performance of the glass hall displays
At the end of trading on Wednesday, the main thermometer of the glass hall decreased by 0.34%, equivalent to 5,26 units from the height of this index, to 2,128,000 units.
The 7,000-point decrease in the height of the main indicator of the Glass Hall happened while the equal-weight index, which indicates the general price trend of all listed companies, registered a parallel performance and reached a height of 721,000 points with a 0.09 percent decrease. The convergence of the two main indicators of the glass hall shows that the money flow did not intend to enter any of the two sectors of index-making stocks or medium and small stocks of the capital market.
The total OTC index, which reflects the general level of prices and dividends of the companies present in the OTC, stood at the level of 26,218 units with a decrease of 0.29%, so that this statistical measure, like other market indicators, ended the day on a happy note.
Tehran Stock Exchange in the mirror of statistics
The board of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows the value of retail transactions (shares, preemptive rights and mutual funds) at three thousand and 570 billion tomans. This sharp decrease in the value of small transactions has reduced the possibility of the stock market rising again until the end of the week.
Experts believe that stabilizing this index above seven thousand billion tomans is necessary for the continuation of the positive trend of the stock market. The board of Tehran Stock Exchange shows the trading volume of 5.9 billion shares on the last trading day of the week.
Experts believe that the more the trading volume reaches higher levels in the current ranges of the total index, the clearer the vision of the new wave of the total index will be drawn in the minds of the shareholders. Because the entry of fresh shareholders will make the way up more smooth.
Checking the ownership statistics of real people on Wednesday indicates the exit of real people’s capital to the stock market. The index of capital inflows and outflows at the end of the stock market on Wednesday reports the outflow of 281 billion tomans from stocks, preemptive rights and mutual funds.
Imposing heavy duties on the export of steel, iron ore and coal by Russia
Apparently, the Russian government has approved that the export of a wide range of goods, including steel, iron ore and coal, will be subject to customs duties from the beginning of October this year (October 9, 1402) until the end of 2024. These duties, which were imposed with the aim of controlling inflation in Russia and strengthening the value of the ruble, will probably limit the presence of Russian steelmakers in the world markets, and this is an opportunity for Iranian steel exporters.
This important news in the eyes of steel shareholders will lead to an increase in demand in this group. Because Russia is one of the competitors of the steel industry in Iran. The decrease in the supply of Russian steel companies will lead to an increase in the demand for the products of Iran Steel Group, which will ultimately increase the profitability of steel companies in their performance reports.
The critical range of the total index
Regarding the current state of the Tehran Stock Exchange in the last days of summer 1402, experts believe that the market is in the correction phase, which can be expected after the growth experienced by the main index of the Glass Hall.
On the other hand, part of the sales pressure in the market traditionally comes back to the nature of the last days of September. Due to the historical settlement of a large number of brokerages in September, many credit customers are forced to sell their shares in order to settle the credits. Therefore, there is a lot of selling pressure in the market.
Experts believe that the range of 2,100,000 safety belts is an indicator. As long as this range is maintained, there is no need to worry about the days of stock market stagnation and the low value and volume of transactions.
Saturday stock market forecast
According to what has been said, along with the stagnation in the value and volume of transactions and the immobility of the American banknote, it seems that the stock market on the first trading day of the Tehran Stock Exchange in autumn will be another balanced day with selling pressure from suppliers. On the other hand, experts expect the two parts manufacturing and steel industry groups to be in the focus of shareholders’ attention during Saturday’s trading.
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