Forecast of the stock market on Sunday 23 February 1401 / Interbank interest rate jump; The new challenge of Tehran Stock Exchange
According to Tejarat News, after three weeks from the beginning of February, the Tehran Stock Exchange finally witnessed a weekly positive candlestick.
On the last trading day of this week, the total index of the stock market reached one million and 558 thousand units and recorded a return of 0.04% compared to the last week.
On the other side of the market, the over-the-counter index also moved in line with the total index of the Tehran Stock Exchange and reached a level of 20,279 units with a growth of 0.1%.
But the equal weight index took a path opposite to these two indices and turned red; The equal weight index stood at a height of 20,279 units with a decrease of 0.48%.
Continued withdrawal of money from the capital market
In the past week, the conflicts between the Competition Council and the Stock Exchange Organization regarding the supply of cars from two major car manufacturers caused the market’s confidence to be damaged to a great extent and risk-averse investors exited the market.
This issue, along with other uncertainties that cast a shadow on the investment atmosphere of the capital market these days, such as the stabilization of the Nimai exchange rate in the range of 28,500 tomans, issues related to the details of the budget and other components that can increase the systematic risk in the country, cause Last week, we were faced with a fluctuating market during which, on average, about 425 billion tomans of real shareholders’ money was withdrawn from the market.
A new challenge facing the Tehran Stock Exchange
It was on Thursday that the central bank published the statistics of interbank interest rates and the minimum repurchase agreement or repo rate. Based on this update, the interbank interest rate jumped and recorded its historical high of 78.21 percent.
This happened while the central bank injected heavy money into the banking system again last week. The central bank provided banks with about 24 thousand billion additional tomans in the form of repurchase agreements.
In this way, the balance of money that the central bank provided to the banks at a rate of 21% in this way reached its highest amount since the beginning. Also, more than 133 thousand billion tomans of money was provided to banks in the form of repo.
Before the announcement of the new interbank interest rate on Thursday, February was the third month in a row that the central bank had adopted an expansionary policy and was trying to facilitate monetary policy by injecting as much money as possible.
The result of this policy was the control of the interest rate and its relative drop, which was witnessed by market participants. Reducing the interest rate, at least in the short term, is one of the big variables that will benefit the capital market.
Now, it seems that the policies of the central bank have changed; A change that does not seem to please the taste of capital market shareholders.
In any case, the prediction of the next week’s stock market will not depend on only one factor. It should be seen how the reaction of the stock market and its people will be to the important discussion of the interbank interest rate jump, along with other effective factors such as the challenge of supplying cars in the commodity exchange.
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