Forecast of tomorrow’s stock market / has the inflation wave reached the stock market? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, the main indicator of the Glass Hall has taken an upward slope since the beginning of today’s trading, with the green start of large and index-making stocks. Over time, we saw an increase in supply in groups such as the basic metals industry and an increase in demand in some other groups of the capital market, such as the automotive group. In the end, the main indicator of the glass hall stood above the height of one million and 563 thousand and 566 units with a growth of 25 thousand and 563 units.

Equal weight index also managed to register a growth of 1.42% in line with the main indicator. This growth resulted in an increase of 6,479 units for the equal weight index. At the end, the equal weight representative of capital market symbols was placed at the height of 462 thousand 753 units. Metal mineral industries and also the automobile group had the best performance among the market industries with a growth of more than 3%.

Another record of volume and value of transactions

The noteworthy point is related to the secondary figures of the capital market. where the value and volume of transactions have managed to register a record higher than the record of the autumn quarter and even the previous day. The value of transactions at the level of 6 thousand 838 billion and the volume of transactions of 15.4 billion shares was the record of Tehran Stock Exchange today. This figure is more than the level of the previous day, which was a new record compared to the fall of this year.

Has the inflationary wave of Iran’s economy reached the stock market?

Mohammad Khabarizad, a capital market expert, said in a conversation with Tejarat News: After the wave of inflation that we had in almost all assets such as the dollar and coin market, the housing and car market and other markets in the recent period, especially in the last three months when this wave intensified. has taken, the capital market remained and currently it can be said that it is the most backward market.

Khabarizad emphasized: In the past week, the Tehran Stock Exchange has had a good upward movement, but it still seems that the stock market has the potential to make up for more lag, taking into account inflation and the current cross-sectional yield.

He continued: In general and in summing up the statements, if something special does not happen in the area of ​​the Nima dollar rate or the interbank interest rate in order to endanger the capital market, it seems that the upward trend will continue. Because the stock market is valued based on half a dollar whose daily rate is around 29 to 30 thousand tomans; Therefore, we can conclude that the market still has a lot of room for growth.

Referring to the non-harmful growth of the capital market, Khabarzad said: Unlike other parallel markets, the Tehran Stock Exchange is the only market whose growth will not cause harm in any way. Unlike other markets such as the dollar, housing or cars, which will affect a large percentage of the society with their growth.

Shifting the leadership role of the capital market rise between different groups; what is the reason?

The conditions of the capital market these days are slightly different from the rise of the previous years. In the recent growth that happened during the first two days of this week, we saw the lead of the basic metals and petrochemicals group; Well-known symbols such as Foulad, Fars, Shapna, Shabandar.

Today, in the initial phase of trading, these symbols were trading at the end of the green range of the fluctuation range, but in the second phase of the market, with a few percent drop, the trading flow of symbols from the automobile industry revived and pushed them to the threshold of the buying queue.

In the past, for a period of at least several days, the leader of the market rise was the responsibility of a certain group. In explaining the difference between the conditions of these market days and previous years, Khabarizad stated: The important point in investigating this new event lies in paying attention to the amount of money in the market. In other words, maybe the amount of money that should be in the market for the growth of all industries is not yet there.

This expert said: So now it can be said that with a short-term growth, existing smart money will move between different industries. For example, the 10% growth of basic metals from yesterday to the middle of today’s trading seemed to be enough for the market participants, and then Iqbal went to other industries.

Important resistances in front of the index of the whole stock market

Regarding the important resistance ranges facing the capital market, Khabarizad said: There are three resistance ranges with high reliability and psychological stability in front of the total stock market index on the way to further rise, which are: 1.6 million units, the famous resistance of 1.8 million 1000 and at the end the historical ceiling which is two million and 100 thousand units.

Khabarizad continued: The capital market does not have a hard time to cross the resistance of 1.6 million, and maybe even up to the range of 1.8 million, there is no significant obstacle for the market to climb.

An important driver of the capital market on the way to break important resistances

Khabarizad further added: to cross the resistance range of one million and 800 thousand units, a strong stimulus is needed. This strong stimulus may be the reduction of the gap between the Nima dollar rate and the free dollar rate or the 9-month reports of companies that will be published at the end of December.

He clarified: In contrast to these stimuli as a negative event for the capital market, there is a risk of internal and external political uncertainties such as the JCPOA negotiations. In fact, if something of a fundamental nature, such as the return of the JCPOA agreement, which causes the inevitable decline of all markets, including the capital market, does not occur, the capital market will not have a difficult way to continue the upward trend, the main driver of which is inflation and the growth of the dollar.

Tomorrow’s stock market forecast

Referring to the events of the last phase of the market, Khabarizad said: Considering the end of today’s trading time, the supply intensified, the initial phase of tomorrow’s market will probably be full of supply. But in general, tomorrow’s market will be balanced and positive trading flow.

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