Forecasting the increase in stock market demand in primary commodity groups
According to the economic reporter of Fars News Agency, the capital market had a nearly balanced trend on the first day of the third week of June and was able to compensate for a part of last week’s drop. But there are still many uncertainties in this market, and the decrease in the value of small transactions in Saturday’s trading can sound the alarm for the stock market.
Capital market experts believe that although the conditions for the people of the capital market did not go as well as expected last week and most days we saw a decrease in the market indicators, but now due to some events, the path of the capital market can improve in the coming half-holiday week and the color green returned to the Tehran Stock Exchange map.
* Repetition of the important technical support of the stock market index?
A look at the technical situation of the stock market index shows that this indicator has been out of its upward trend (channel) for some time and is following a neutral path. Based on technical analysis, there is currently no sign of returning to the upward path.
However, the existing support in the range of 2,250,000 units has prevented the total stock index from further falling many times, and it seems that according to the existing conditions, this support can repeat these conditions again.
According to the situation of the Tehran stock market during the first half of June 1402 and after the heavy falls of the market in May, the capital market still does not have the ability to become positive and has kept all assumptions from a technical point of view.
Assumptions such as the status of the RSI indicator in the total index of the Tehran Stock Exchange, which is in the middle of the road and shows the balance in the market, or the upward trend line of the hypothetical channel along with the 23% Fibonacci level of the previous wave, all remain unchanged in the market.
This situation remains until the transaction value changes. In the first half of June, the market is still in the range of 2.3 million units with no particular change and has set its growth and decline for after the holidays.
According to stock market activists, the stock market is looking for an excuse to start moving, and these days it is looking for a good justification to move to get out of this uncertain situation.
* Why does the stock market not have the power to rise?
Ali Momeni, a capital market expert, in an interview with the economic reporter of Fars News Agency, said about the stock market trend in the coming weeks: Some conditions and uncertainties in the past weeks have made sellers prefer to leave rather than stay.
He continued: The strong rise of the stock market, which started at the beginning of March last year, was able to compensate for a significant part of the laggard of the stock market compared to the parallel markets, and the price of many symbols experienced a good growth, and since the rises are always accompanied by periodic corrections. are together, it was predicted that the Tehran Stock Exchange will also go through this correction process over time.
This capital market expert continued: During the past weeks, global markets often witnessed difficult days and commodities (primary goods) often reduced their prices on a daily basis, making it more difficult for the Tehran Stock Exchange.
Referring to the reasons for the drop in the price of basic metals, Momeni stated: This issue had various reasons, the main of which was the increase in expectations for the continuation of the contractionary policies of the Federal Reserve, the concern about the US debt ceiling, and also the weak statistics that were published from the Chinese economy.
He added: However, it seems that the situation has changed a little and in the past days we saw a relatively good growth in commodity prices, and we can expect that the stock market will be able to meet better demand in the coming days, especially in large and commodity-oriented groups. .
* Integrated growth of stock exchange performance indicators
At the end of trading on Saturday, the stock market index increased by 8,639 units compared to the previous working day and reached the level of 2,279,681 units. The efficiency of this positive index was 38 percent.
The total equal weight index of the stock market stood at 771 thousand 303 points with an increase of 5 thousand 795 points. The yield of this positive index was 76 percent.
The total OTC index also increased by 188 points to 28 thousand 813 points. Also, the over-the-counter equal weight index reached the level of 140,998 units with a growth of 1,370 units.
* Entry of real money into the stock market
On Saturday, the net change of legal to real ownership in the stock market was positive and 16 billion tomans of real money entered the stock market.
Last day, the symbol of Ghagol (glucosan), Alis (Spring Rose Alis Chenaran) and Vesapa (Saipa Investment) had the most entry and exit. On the other hand, the largest withdrawal of real money was allocated to Shatran (Tehran Oil Refinery), Shapna (Isfahan Oil Refinery) and Shabandar (Bandar Abbas Oil Refinery).
* The negative record of capital market micro transactions
Yesterday, the total value of stock market transactions reached 10,862 billion tomans. The value of debt securities transactions in the secondary market was 1,308 billion tomans, which includes 12% of the total value of market transactions on this day.
The value of retail transactions also decreased by 28% compared to the previous trading day and reached 6,560 billion tomans, which is the lowest figure since the beginning of the year. Previously, on the trading day of March 22, the value of small transactions was lower than this level.
* Supply and demand in the stock market
During the trading on Saturday, 138 symbols had a buying queue and 28 symbols were facing a selling queue. The total value of shopping queues decreased by 14% compared to the previous day to 1,10 billion Tomans, and the total value of sales queues decreased by 31% to 270 billion Tomans.
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