Forecasting the markets in the period of new economic opening / future of dollar, gold, stock exchange and car
According to Tejarat News, in the first 100 days of Ibrahim Ra’isi’s government, the best housing market (housing rent) and the worst stock market was.
During this period, according to reports published in the world of economy and trade news, the dollar has grown by 12%, coins by 11% and the stock market by 2%.
Also, housing prices have increased by 5%, housing rents by 21% and Pride prices by 17%.
But what will happen to the markets in the future?
On the other hand, the Minister of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Welfare has said: 1401 will be the year of economic opening. Earlier, in August last year, the then president used such a phrase.
A 29 percent drop in the stock market index, a 20 percent rise in the price of the dollar and a 54 percent rise in the price index (inflation) are a reminder of the previous economic opening, the details of which can be read in the “New Economic Opening” report.
Ali Tabatabai and Vahid Masoudi, two financial market experts today, in a conversation with Ebrahim Alizadeh, The editor of Tejarat News predicted the market situation during the activity of Ibrahim Ra’isi’s government.
What are likely to happen during the tenure of the government of Ibrahim Ra’isi, the dollar, gold, the stock market and housing?
Those who are interested can download this program on the page Trade News To observe.
Capital market conditions
The first part of Live was dedicated to analyzing the conditions and future of the capital market.
Tabatabai: The stock market is not a priority
“It is not a priority for many people,” said Tabatabai, a stock market financial expert at the beginning of the live broadcast. Officials do not give much weight to the capital market. Because the economic situation is facing many problems and he is somehow having a stroke. When there is a severe budget deficit and deployment from the central bank, they are thinking of an economic stroke, not a drop in the index.
He added: “In this situation, they try to use the capital market to prevent more acute economic problems and, for example, pay more attention to the sale of securities than the stock market index.”
The future is uncertain
The financial markets expert stressed: “As long as the 1401 budget headings are not clear, the future of the capital market is uncertain and policies in this area are not clear.”
Tabatabai said: it is unlikely that the index ceiling will be hit next year. Market conditions are not bad these days, the only problem is that there is no stability. Equilibrium and stability are important and the investor can decide in this situation.
Indicator status until the end of the year
According to him, given the securities policy and the liquidity control policy, significant growth of the overall index is unlikely, and the index is unlikely to exceed 1.6 million units.
The financial market expert added: “If the index corrects to about 1.3 million, by the end of the year, there may be a balanced homogeneous growth of 30 to 40% in the market as a whole.”
Masoudi: The market is not in bad shape
Masoudi, another expert present at the live, continued: “There is not much effort in the government to increase the index; Because the authorities do not want to create high expectations in the first year. If this year’s index hits the previous ceiling, they may not be able to respond in later years.
He added: “These days, if there was no significant rise in the stock market in 1399, the market would not have bad conditions.” But shareholders compare the situation to the past and are therefore dissatisfied.
Rhythm without index stability
The financial markets expert, meanwhile, said the index did not have a good rhythm. It does not always have to be bullish, but decisions such as bond sales have a negative effect on it.
Masoudi added: the total index will probably experience correction up to 1 and 300. The capital market needs liquidity to be able to exceed 1.5 million units.
The whole shaft can be manipulated
He emphasized: Of course, the whole index is not properly defined and the weighted index is a better symbol for the stock market and the country’s economy. The whole index can be manipulated and even the status of some indexing symbols is irrelevant.
The financial markets expert added: “The index does not reflect the conditions of individuals’ portfolios, and some of them may have shares with a negative 60 to 80 in their portfolio.”
Indicator status until the end of the year
According to Massoudi, the situation is now such that technical analysis does not respond to the market situation and it seems that some symbols are trying to candle.
He said: the index can see about 1 million 600 to 700 by the end of March, but the negative state of the people’s portfolio may not change.
Tabatabai: The stock market is the best market in the long run
Asked if it was a good time to enter the capital market, Tabatabai, another live expert, said: “To invest, you have to see how much people need that money and with what expectations they want to enter the market.”
He added: “Investing in the Iranian stock market is a long-term action for a period of at least one year, and one should know that this market is not quick to return.” Risk-taking is also essential for Word to stock.
The financial markets expert said: “If a person has such conditions, there is no cheaper way to invest in the country than the stock market.”
Tabatabai added: “But if a person has a short-term view and wants to make a profit of 20 to 30 percent in the short term, he should know that the conditions of the capital market are not predictable.”
Which groups are leading?
According to him, in order to choose a share, one must weigh the market; The market must be stable; Not that it is always ascending or descending. The problem with capital markets is that they are unpredictable.
“Implementing policies have trained oscillators, and market participants are more likely to buy shares based on signals than reason and thinking,” he said. It is now difficult to make rational decisions in the market and thus make a profit.
Impact of 4200 Tomans
Tabatabai also said about the effect of the currency of 4200 Tomans: now the dollar is provided at this price only for some drugs and for the other groups, it has been almost eliminated.
He added: 4200 Tomans currency has a great impact on food and if it is removed but the price is not liberalized, some factories will go bankrupt.
According to this expert, until the market is stable and there is no money in the industries, the market can not react to the news and the movement of shares will not occur.
Massoudi: I recommend petrochemicals
Also, Masoudi, another financial expert present at the conversation, said: “It is not possible to really predict whether there are suitable conditions for entering the capital market or not.”
He added: “The charts are not in good condition and the only groups that were able to hit the ceiling of 1999 were the petrochemicals.”
“Banks and cars, while negative, can save the capital market,” he said. But I have no offer to invest in these groups.
Masoudi added: “In the long run, with the view of the assemblies, I recommend buying shares of petroleum refineries; Especially symbols that have dollar profits.
According to him, the stock market has found a serious competitor called Ramzars and now the situation is somewhat worrying; Because people prefer to buy stocks instead of, say, steel.
The future of the dollar market
The next part of this Instagram conversation was dedicated to the dollar market.
Masoudi: Without an agreement, the dollar will be 42 thousand tomans
Masoudi, a financial markets expert, pointed to the impact of the negotiations on the future of the foreign exchange market and said: “Whether an agreement is reached or not, the dollar has an upward trend over a period of about two years.”
He added: “If an agreement is reached, the price of the dollar will improve, but it will rise again.”
This financial markets expert said: if the negotiations are erosive and no agreement is reached, the dollar can reach 32 or 33 thousand tomans before the summer of 1401. In the long run, $ 40,000 to $ 42,000 can be achieved.
According to Masoudi, the floor price of the dollar is 25,000 tomans.
Tabatabai: The intrinsic value of the dollar is 35,000 tomans
Furthermore, Tabatabai, another expert present at Live, estimated the intrinsic value of the dollar at 35,000 Tomans and added: “A significant drop in the price of the dollar in a short period of time is unlikely.”
He added: “Some experts raised the possibility of $ 25,000, but the possibility has decreased.” It is even said that the government is closing the 1401 budget on the basis of 23,000 Tomans.
The financial markets expert said that an agreement should be reached, but it can not be expected to affect the price of the dollar in the short term. Because it takes one or two years for the lifting of sanctions to show its impact on the country’s exports.
According to Tabatabai, it may only affect the markets psychologically and create hope for reducing inflation.
He said: “Less than 35,000 Tomans of the dollar has become possible with currency exchange, and the price of the dollar will probably go in this direction in the coming months.”
According to the expert, the blocked resources have already been spent in the form of printing money and borrowing from the central bank, and will not affect the market.
Gold market forecast
The experts then analyzed the situation and the future of the gold market.
Tabatabai: Ounces do not hit their previous ceiling
“The global ounce is influenced by US monetary policy, which is likely to be anti-inflationary,” Tabatabai said. In this case, gold can not hit its historic high because the dollar will strengthen.
He added: “On the other hand, the competing market also claims that it can become a safe market.” The advantage of gold has always been that it was considered a safe market, but now the cryptocurrency market claims the same.
30% growth in a year and a half
“In the domestic market, gold is more affected by the dollar than by the ounce,” said the financial markets expert.
Tabatabai said: If the maintenance period is about a year and a half, it can have a 30% return for individuals. Of course, this does not mean rented gold and coins.
According to him, the growth of the dollar and gold in a one-year period can be about 25 percent.
Masoudi: Gold is a safe market
“Gold is a safe market in the long run,” said Massoudi, another live expert.
According to him, the gold market has better conditions compared to the dollar and cryptocurrencies.
Is Ramzarz market falling?
The financial market expert described the cryptocurrency market as a hotbed of inflation for the US economy, adding: “If inflation in this country decreases, the market will probably fall into the hands of gold again.”
Masoudi added: “Now we are in a period of optimism and acceptance about cryptocurrencies, and bitcoin is probably on the rise for the next year, but after $ 84,000, it will probably improve.”
He said: “It will probably reach this price before the beginning of the new year, and after bitcoin at $ 84,000 and $ 110,000, it remains to be seen where public luck will go.”
According to this financial market expert, the price floor of Bitcoin is around 52 to 53 thousand dollars.
Tabatabai: Enter the market with caution
“If the United States changes its economic policies, liquidity will increase and it may be inflationary,” said Tabatabai, another expert in the Instagram interview.
He added that Ramzarz could be a tool to control inflation in such situations. For this reason, people should enter this market with a small part of their money and with caution.
The future of the housing market
The next part of Live Trade News was dedicated to the housing market.
“Housing is usually higher than its intrinsic value,” Tabatabai said.
He added: “If there is an economic opening, the exit of housing from the recession will require a reduction of about 20 to 25 percent in the official price.” Today, 60 to 70% of ongoing transactions are concluded with the same amount of discount.
“If land prices fall, there will be a sharp drop in housing prices,” he said.
According to Tabatabai, if the government implements the housing leap plan properly, the value of land will go to the outskirts of cities and the price of land in the center and north of each city will decrease.
“At best, the housing market will be in recession for the next four years, and prices are unlikely to rise,” he said.
The future of the car market
In the next part of the conversation, the experts analyzed the situation and the future of the car market.
Masoudi: It is possible to increase the price of the car
“The official increase in the price of production cars is possible because of the rents that exist in this industry,” said Masoudi, a market expert.
According to him, in the case of imported cars, if imports are released, there is a possibility of a slight decrease in prices in the short term.
Masoudi emphasized: car symbols can save the stock market index in the long run.
Tabatabai: Price liberalization is inevitable
Tabatabai, another expert present at Live, first emphasized: The car is a consumer good and should not be seen as a capital good.
He said price liberalization was inevitable given the conditions of the capital market, adding: “Car factory prices are going up, which of course is not a bad thing.”
The financial markets expert said that with the liberalization of prices, intermediaries, brokers and price jumps will be eliminated.
According to Tabatabai, a 25 to 30 percent increase in the average price of products is enough to get automakers out of the losses.
Appropriate investment portfolio
In the final part of the live, the experts expressed their views on the appropriate investment portfolio.
Tabatabai said in this regard: I invest more than 80% of my assets in the capital market. The cryptocurrency market is risky and I go for it with a small amount of capital.
Masoudi also stated: I put 50% on petroleum refineries. I trade the other 50% in Ramzarz and Forex markets.
Read the latest news from different markets on the Trade News page.