Fundamental analysis of Shefan shares/ profit forecast of 1402 Fanavaran Petrochemicals – Tejaratnews

According to Tejarat News, after the announcement of a 40% increase in the price of petrochemical feedstock, the issue of reducing the profitability of petrochemical companies in 1402 was raised. But now, Mohsen Alizadeh, a member of parliament’s observer in the Supreme Islamic Council of the Stock Exchange, has announced: finally, after many and repeated follow-ups, the Board of Compliance of the Government’s approvals with the laws declared the approval of feed rates for industries and petrochemicals illegal and void. But this is not the end of the story; Because the price of methanol in the world markets does not convey good news for petrochemicals.

Sheffen in 1401

A look at the financial statements of Fanavaran Petrochemical shows that the company recognized a net profit of three thousand and 145 billion tomans in 1401. A profit that increased by 52% compared to the year 1400. Previously, taking into account the feed rate of seven thousand tomans, the predictions of the company’s profitability were pessimistic. But now, after canceling the feed rate increase, the profitability of Shefen in 1402 is not far from expected.

Reduction of global methanol rates

To predict the profit of 1402 Shafen, one should also look at the sales parameters of Fanavaran company. Since more than 77% of Shafen’s production portfolio is made up of methanol, the global price changes of methanol have a high impact on Shafen’s profitability.

A look at Shafen’s financial statements indicates that the Riyal sales rate of this product has increased in 1401 and the company has considered this as a reason for increasing income. But it should not be forgotten that the growth of the rial in the rate of methanol is nominal and is only due to the increase in the price of the dollar.

Therefore, the issue of increasing the profitability of the Technavaran company is somewhat deceptive, and if we calculate the company’s financial statements at the dollar rate, there is no news of the growth of gross profit and net profit. The net profit of the company is only due to the net increase of other incomes and the decrease of other non-operating expenses of the company, which are not related to the company’s operations.

Decline in Sheffen’s profitability in 1402

But in 1402, what will happen to the profitability of Shefan? Due to the decrease in the world price of methanol, it is unlikely that the net profit of Fanavaran Company will increase in 1402. On the other hand, it is good to take a look at the company’s sales figures for four months. If the sales amount of the first four months of the last two years are added up, 349 thousand 438 tons for 1402 and 311 thousand 323 tons for 1401 will be obtained.

The improvement of the company’s performance in the amount of sales in the first four months of 1402 compared to the same period of 1401 makes the profit of 1402 more optimistic. But we should not forget the decrease in global methanol rates. Therefore, at the beginning, it should be said that the situation of Shefan in 1402 is not so dire that the technocrats will suffer. Also, the reduction of the company’s methanol rate will prevent the increase in profitability in 1402.

In this way, it should be said, Shafen will not lose money in 1402, but the company’s profit in 1402 will not be more than the profit in 1401.

Now, if we take a closer look at the sales parameters of Sheffen, it is predicted that the company will sell in 1402 if the same sales trend continues and the latest sales rates for methanol ($266/ton) and domestic acetic acid ($377/ton) are applied, according to the Pellets publication. , to make a profit of one thousand and 60 billion tomans, which is about one third of the year 1401.

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