Global trade will decline in the coming months
According to the report of Iran’s Economist International Economic Group, the Al-Khalij Online news site close to Qatar wrote in a note entitled “Predictions of the decline of global trade in the coming months” that global trade is subject to major disruptions and challenges, and trade growth is expected in the second half of the year. The current will lose its momentum and continue its weakness in 2023.
In this note, the report of the National Bank of Qatar, published on November 12, 2022, is mentioned, which predicts that the volume of world trade will be significantly affected by several shocks to the global economy, especially the war in Ukraine and the tension in international relations in the coming months. Decrease attention.
In its report, Qatar Bank has relied on business data and indicators, which is one of the few indicators to are you well It expresses the general conditions of the world economy.
Data on global trade and real cross-border transactions track demand for major products and factors of production, including consumer goods, capital goods, inputs, and basic goods. Economic growth and contraction change.
This bank has stated in its report that the data related to the volume of world trade presents a picture of the recent past and not the present or the future, and indicates that the growth of the main indicators of world trade will not continue, but in the coming months we will see a decrease. It may also shrink.
In this analysis, three points have been pointed out: First, the data related to the three main economies of the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan point to a global trade recession. Surveys also show that registration of new export orders has been decreasing for consecutive months and was in the worst state of contraction in October.
The report warned that rising inflation will negatively affect disposable income in major economies and reduce aggregate demand, and thus trade growth in Asian exporting economies (Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) has also been accompanied by a decline. These countries usually drive global trade trends and play a major role in the supply chain of industrial activities across different continents.
The second point discussed in the Qatar National Bank report is related to the expectations of investors who monitor the market conditions. Their expectations for future gains in the transportation sector, a key indicator of future global trade growth, suggest a sharp contraction in demand for physical goods.
According to the Qatar National Bank report, the third point is that foreign exchange price fluctuations can play a role in the decline of world trade. Increase Dollar value The US is a major drag on global trade growth, with interest rates expected to rise and the US economy to perform better.
To opinion Qatar National Bank, about 40% of global trade is done with US dollars, and the strength of the dollar makes non-US imports more expensive, and this leads to more pressure on disposable income or even replacing imports with domestic products, which ultimately affects the volume of transactions. leaves negative
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