Good news for this fall and winter
According to Moj news agency, Behzad Laighi in the expert meeting on climate change from the perspective Meteorology Focusing on droughts, floods, and dust storms, he said: Oceans play a role in moderating the weather conditions on Earth and moderate the energy transferred from the solar system to Earth. In addition to atmospheric systems, ocean currents also play an important role on Earth.
He added: since the industrial revolution, the increase in carbon dioxide has also increased the temperature on the earth’s surface and this process will continue. 70% of the earth’s surface is covered by water and most of them receive solar energy. 50% of solar energy transfer occurs through the oceans, although Iran receives this solar energy directly, but some countries receive it through the oceans. Issues such as global warming and receiving solar energy are very influential in predicting climate conditions such as monthly and seasonal forecasts.
According to the head of the deputy director of development of forecasting of atmospheric risk management of the National Meteorological Organization, the Pacific Ocean is the largest body of water on the planet, which also receives a lot of energy due to its large area and volume. Normally, the temperature conditions in this ocean are such that it has warmer waters in the western and Asian parts and colder waters in the eastern parts. As long as the conditions are normal and the warm waters are on the west coast, it does not have much impact on the climate, and when the energy accumulation increases, the warm waters extend to the east coast and a large amount of water is heated. and transfers energy to other places.
He continued: With the extension of these currents to the eastern parts, there will be a lot of rainfall on the coasts of countries such as Japan and the Philippines, and it will be transferred to more eastern parts as well. Currently, these rotations are in El Nino conditions and the convective rains continue to the middle of the Pacific Ocean and change the pattern of rains in that region and extend to the Indian Ocean and we see its effects in Iran. Usually, when El Nino prevails, we experience more rains in our regions, and currently the conditions are such that we will have more rains in hot areas, especially in the southern and central regions.
Laighi added: In addition to the fact that we are experiencing this change in the rainfall pattern in different regions, we should expect an increase in tropical and subtropical storms at this time more than in the past, which also happens in Iran. La Nina is the opposite of El Niño. In La Niña conditions, most of the ocean is affected by the cold current, which causes a decrease in instability and a decrease in humidity, and it leads to a decrease in rainfall in some areas and an increase in rainfall in some areas, which leads to low rainfall and drought in Iran. Iran is currently experiencing a positive state of the El Nino index, so we should expect more rains in the southern and central regions of the country.
He continued: There is another index called “NAO” which is related to the North Atlantic and its effects can be seen in the northern half of the country and the movement of air from this part towards the Asian continent is affected by a pattern that affects both the water temperature and It also affects the rainfall pattern of this region. When the pressure difference in this region is high, the negative phase of Nao occurs and the transfer of moisture to the Iranian region increases, so autumn and winter rains in our country will have better and more conditions. In the positive phase of this index, the moisture transfer is more towards Northern Europe and the regions that are parallel to Iran experience less rains.
According to the head of the deputy head of forecasting development of the weather risk management of the country’s meteorological organization, this index is currently in a negative state and in the fall and winter of this year, we should expect more rains, which we hope will not be normal and will not bring many risks.
He added: We have another index that is related to the temperature pattern of the Indian Ocean and takes into account the temperature difference between the western and eastern parts of the ocean, and if this index is in a positive phase, the accumulation of warm waters will be more in the western part of the ocean and near Africa. and the Middle East, and in this case we should expect more rains in Iran, but if we have cold water in the negative phase and the accumulation of cold water in Africa, drought is expected to occur in Africa and Iran.
At the end, Laighi clarified: When we want to consider the climatic conditions, we must also consider the indicators of the oceans and the environment because they are very important and influential.