Has the demand for housing become zero? / Price reduction in the midst of a recession – Tejaratnews

According to Tejarat News, the most important visible issue since last month is the stagnation in the housing market. These days, the recession has stopped the real estate transactions from booming and has put buying and selling at its lowest level.

Real estate consultants in Tehran’s real estate market say that there is so little demand for real estate in the market that sellers with the necessary money are willing to sell their residential units a little lower than the market price, and this has put prices on a downward slope. An issue that the 13th government considers to be one of its achievements.

Contagion of housing market recession to businesses

Mansour Ghaibi, a housing expert, has previously told Tejarat News about the market situation: “It is true that the market has moved away from the false and emotional increase. “Every day people were putting a price on their property and comparing themselves to parallel markets like the dollar. It has decreased.”

He continued: “When it is possible to control parallel markets, including the dollar, in the housing economy, the market will distance itself from inflammation and become a real trend.” The best version of the housing economy and the property market is a relative prosperity proportional to the normal inflation of 20 to 25 percent per year; No more and no less.”

Ghaibi explained in this regard: “Both of its modes also harm the economy, because the housing economy is the driver of the economy, and if we do something to reduce it, several dozen fields of production and services will face stagnation, which will harm the macro-economy.” That is, the policy maker and executive should make a plan so that housing does not fall into a state of stagnation and inflationary stagnation.

Is it the right time to enter the housing market?

The question that arises in this recession situation for the activists in the housing market is whether now is the right time to enter the real estate market, whether in terms of investment or consumer demand.

Economist Peyman Molavi has explained about the right time to enter the housing market: “My advice to people who don’t have a home is to act as soon as possible and buy wherever they can, and pay attention to rumors about failure. do not have a price; This news is psychological. “Unfortunately, in the real estate market, even when it enters recession, it is not possible to lower the price due to the nature of this market.”

In this regard, he added: “People who have a house and are now thinking of investing, buying property with an income perspective is recommended. It means that they should buy a house and have income from rent. Those who have more than one house are also advised to get a house abroad after diversifying their assets.

This economist has also stated about the growth of the dollar in the housing market: “The dollar growth of the real estate market at the end of 1402 will not be less than the rest of the markets, and its yield is moving like the dollar and gold market.” Therefore, it is recommended to buy a house for those who do not have a house and to get a loan in any way.”

Will the supply of national housing save the market?

Hamidreza Sohrabi, the vice president of urban housing of the Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation, recently explained the process of implementing the National Housing Movement Plan in the cities under the responsibility of the foundation and said: “Currently, more than 142 thousand units of the National Housing Movement Plan by the Foundation have entered the operational phase and It has been implemented.”

Now we have to see what effect the supply of these units can have on the housing market?

Hassan Mohtsham, a member of the Board of Directors of the Association of Mass Builders of Tehran Province, told Tejarat News in this regard: “For the National Housing Movement, almost an acceptable number of contracts have been signed, not to the extent and size that was promised, but in any case at the level of the country.” And contracts have been concluded with different cities.

He continued: “These units will naturally play a decisive role in the price level of low-cost houses if they enter the construction cycle and are placed in the operation delivery phase.”

Mohtsham also said about the country’s need for housing supply: “We need millions of housing units and a complex of 500 units cannot have an effect on the lack of this amount of housing.” Naturally, if more than 100,000 units are prepared, it can have an impact on national housing units and Mehr housing units. Of course, not that it can affect housing in general.”

Does the increase in home loan help?

On the last day of spring 1402, the Money and Credit Council increased the ceiling of housing purchase facility from the place of pre-emptive bonds (TSE). According to this news, mortgages for couples have increased up to 800 million tomans and for singles up to 400 million tomans. 160 million Tomans of Jaala loan remains the same as the previous amount. But in the meantime, there was an issue that surprised the applicants of this facility.

The mortgage installments for the loan of 960 million for Tehrani couples are 19 million and 300 thousand tomans and for singles about 11 million and 300 thousand tomans. These figures, however, drew criticism from the people and members of parliament, and for this reason, the central bank raised the issue of staggered loan payments in a circular.

In the step-by-step payment of mortgage installments at the request of the applicant, instead of determining a fixed figure as the installment during the entire repayment period, a lower figure is defined in the first year and then three, five or 9% will be added to it annually at the request of the applicant. .

Although the installments of this type of staggered repayment also have a significant amount, and according to the average income of the society, it is not possible to pay it for a large segment of people; Therefore, it will not have much effect on people’s purchasing power.

Although these days the price and the housing market are in recession, but experts believe that soon this recession will turn into an inflationary recession and the rise of prices will be on its previous path.

On the other hand, due to the inflation in construction materials and the decrease in the profit margin of the mass builders, the supply of housing is facing a shortage as in the past few years, and this problem is also causing problems in the housing market from the production side.

Activists of this market believe that the housing sector, like other sectors of the economy, has a high degree of adhesion with the state of the macro economy, and this causes the crisis in the housing market to continue as long as there are economic problems such as sanctions and inflation in Iran.

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