Has the stock market lost its way?/ The direction of the stock market in the shadow of economic shocks

According to Tejarat News, as capital market experts say, the stock market generally goes through periods of boom and bust. These periods may be short or long depending on political and economic conditions. This time, however, the correction period of the stock market seems to be prolonged, and every time the overall index tries to record new levels, it fails.

Although this year’s total index has managed to conquer and even surpass the historical ceiling of 1999, it is now undergoing a severe downward trend and has not yet reached stable and reasonable conditions. However, capital market experts believe that Tehran Stock Exchange will find its way and reach stable conditions.

The capital market finds its way

Hassan Shahvardi, a capital market expert, answered the question of how you see the state of the capital market and said: This is a difficult question and in the capital market, whatever answer you give, it will be interpreted differently. Now we don’t want to say where the market will go, but we have to pay attention to many factors.

Shahvardi added: Both internal reports and the performance and activities of companies are discussed, which is very important, and the importance of global markets and parallel markets is high. At the same time, the importance of political issues is also high; All these tie together and show the direction of the market.

He added: It is not very correct for us to provide a forecast of the market today; Better not to do that and let the market take its course.

The conditions are favorable for the growth of companies

About the challenges facing the market, the CEO of Amin Toan Afarin Saz Investment Company also pointed to the issue of feed and energy carriers and emphasized: if the price increase is not approved in the end and is canceled between the government and the parliament, the situation of petrochemicals and petrochemicals will be good. .

Shahvardi said: It is also important that when discussing politics, we must say that whether there is a JCPOA or not, the market goes its own way and is growing in both cases.

He emphasized: It is not a correct way for us to predict and say, if this happens, it will happen like this, and if it does not happen, it will not happen like this; Because the main discussion of the market is the performance of the companies themselves. Shahvardi added: Another important discussion is commodities and global markets. Meanwhile, internal issues are also important; We consider everything favorable for market growth.

Capital Market; The way to save pension funds

Another capital market expert, Mohammad Nazifi, emphasized that there is no other way to manage risk than this market, and said: “For example, pension funds are dealing with a crisis that is not limited to Iran and the European Union countries either. To some extent, they are struggling with this issue.”

Nazifi added: “The second issue we are facing in Iran is that the nominal value of the assets of all pension funds is constantly increasing due to the high inflation of the economy. This is despite the fact that the cash flow, which should compensate for inflation in the target society of these funds, does not grow at the same rate. This situation requires the use of debt instruments. Because they have a significant asset in their support.

He continued: “In other words, the problem that the funds are dealing with is that this ratio does not grow similarly. That is, the value of assets increases, but their cash flow and the quality of their cash flows do not grow in the same proportion, and in order to compensate for this, they must use debt instruments; provide financing and be able to generate cash flow according to the size of their assets in order to meet the needs of their audience.”

Nazaifi stated: “To realize this goal, there is no other choice but to move towards the capital market, and these funds must necessarily expand their presence in the capital market.” This is also happening. The Banks Fund, Contingent Provision Organization, National Pension Fund, Foulad and other pension funds are institutions that are setting up financial groups so that they can use the capital market and its capacities more.”

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