Hidden rent | The need to plan for the import of basic goods after the reform of the preferred currency / ‌Subsidy payment structure is wrong

Ahmad Salehi, in an interview with Fars News Agency economic reporter regarding the need to eliminate the 4200 Toman currency, said: Regarding the elimination of the 4200 Toman currency, now everyone has reached the consensus that the elimination of this type of currency is a necessity and almost no one wants a double exchange rate. The reason for this is also clear, because when the payment of subsidies such as 4200 Tomans for import is determined, all management and supervisory tools of the government should be used, so that in all stages of import of goods from the beginning to the end, including allocation of currency, import and Its distribution should not be violated and the government currency allocated for the import of basic goods or any other type of goods should hit the target community, which is the low-income strata of society.

The economist said: “Therefore, in order to allocate a subsidized currency to importers, a comprehensive qualification assessment should be carried out in the country so that qualified importers can be identified and this currency should be paid to well-experienced importers to ensure that at least the goods It should be imported into the country and this currency should not be spent on other things, and in the next steps, careful monitoring should be done so that quality goods in accordance with the standard enter the country from across borders and then be monitored so that the goods are not damaged during long journeys. And there should be no problems due to the existence of sanctions for the import of those goods into the country, and after the imported goods reach the country’s ports, the necessary supervision should be done so that the goods are properly distributed in the distribution and super-distribution network.

He added: “Therefore, in all this long and complex chain, the government should staple its trade in the currency of 4200 Tomans so that there is no import in many circles, because if there is only 2% deviation in each of these circles, it should be according to the circles.” Numerous chains from the stage of allocating government currency to the import of goods to the stage of final distribution and delivery of goods to the consumer can be assured that about 18 to 25 percent of the subsidized currency has been created.

* Government oversight of the allocation of preferred currency has not been successful

Salehi in response to the question that some experts believe that the 4200 Toman currency did not hit the target community is due to the fact that governments have not been able to perform their oversight function properly and in this situation instead of solving the real problem by removing the 4200 Toman currency. “Yes, exactly what I meant was that governments have not been able to monitor properly, but this point must also be taken into account,” said Tuman, who will happen to increase commodity prices as well. Asked why they could not monitor.

He added: “Governments are never good executors. As mentioned, the process of allocating currency and importing goods and distributing it is a very long process, and in all links in the government chain, it must look and define an observer and move with a preferred currency so that this The currency is thrown into a loop and has to go through a complex process of importing goods, which is a very complex network.

Ahmadi said: “Of course, the government may succeed in establishing a very precise monitoring network during all import cycles, so that the government currency allocated to the import of basic goods has no waste, at which time it can be said that the subsidy It can be paid at the source and there is no problem to hit the target community, but now those conditions are not available.

In response to the question that according to the current situation after the removal of 4200 Tomans, the resulting subsidy should be paid in cash or non-cash, he said: After the targeted implementation of subsidies and payment of 11 years of cash subsidies to people now easily It is possible to identify different strata of society, while with one button it is possible to determine which strata of society will be given the subsidy, or how many millions of people will be eligible for subsidies, so based on technology, much stronger operational capabilities Compared to 11 years ago.

* The wrong structure of 80 years of subsidies in the country

Salehi stated that in our country, during the last 80 years, subsidies have been distributed in such a way that the most consumed are more enjoyed. He said: Enough, if the government eliminates this currency, it must give the necessary guarantee to different segments of the people, which will support them by eliminating the 4,200 Toman currency and increasing the prices of basic goods such as meat, rice, wheat, etc., and support methods for different segments of the population. Especially low income will be considered.

He said: “Of course, a very important and fundamental point should be considered by the government that if the government currency is removed, there may be disruption in the process of importing goods, so that before removing the 4200 Toman currency, importers knew that by importing Basic goods can receive government currency, so importers have been importing goods continuously and the items needed by the people have been provided, that is, importers have continuously imported goods to the country by buying goods on credit from foreign sellers. And after receiving the preferred currency from the government, they would pay the seller, but if this type of currency is stopped and if the importer is forced to import in free currency, this type of import may not be profitable for the importer. And thus stop its imports.

* Elimination of the preferred currency and the possibility of temporarily stopping the import of basic goods

He added: “Therefore, before eliminating the 4200 Toman currency, the government should have completed its basic goods reserves for several months and have a contract for the purchase of basic goods for at least 6 months, so that if this type of currency is eliminated, there will be no problem for the country in supplying basic goods.” Does not occur.

This economic researcher stated: As mentioned, after removing the 4200 Toman currency, importers may stop their imports until they adapt to the new conditions, and they may not even import to the country for 6 months, so the government should be fully prepared for this. Conditions and with careful planning to prevent any problems in the supply of basic goods.

He added: “The issue of supply of basic goods is very important and it is not even possible for the country to be without basic goods for 20 days, and in this situation where social capital is low, lack of timely supply of basic goods may become a serious crisis for the country.”

Ahmadi added: “There were discussions that if the government removes the 4,200 Toman currency, the government will pay a subsidy of 110,000 Tomans to each member of the target community. 4200 Tomans to pay sums as livelihood assistance to the needy and the logic of targeted subsidies in 1989 was the same logic.

He added: “There are two methods to hit the subsidy at the destination, one method is to pay cash and deposit it in people’s accounts, which can have inflationary effects, and the second method is to give credit to goods using new distribution tools.”

Salehi said: “In the method of allocating credit shopping cards, people can buy different items such as rice, red meat, chicken or dairy products from different chain stores or online stores, so in this method, no money is injected into society, but By using credit cards, different people can meet part of their needs.

“For this, the government can use the capacity of the people, the capacity of chain stores and even the capacity of online stores,” he said.

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