Housing market forecast in 1401 / Inflation stagnation awaits the housing market?
According to Tejarat News, what will happen to the housing market next year?
ایسنا Farshid Pourhajat wrote: Municipalities are set to triple the fee for building permits next year. For this reason, in recent weeks, some manufacturers have applied for licenses at this year’s prices, but this does not mean that the construction industry will prosper next year.
He added: “The license rate varies in different cities, regions and blocks.” For example, in the north of Tehran, the rate of licensing fees reaches up to 10 million tomans per square meter, and in the middle areas of Ahvaz, it is between 200 and 250 thousand tomans per square meter.
The secretary of the Mass Builders Association said about the incentives provided to the builders in the worn-out structures: “Despite the promises made, in practice, the municipalities are hindering the development and prosperity of the worn-out structures.” They announce that we are reducing the cost of licenses by 50%, but when we go into details, we see that licenses have become so expensive that these incentives have become virtually ineffective.
Imposition of colorful costs on worn tissues
Pourhajat emphasized: In some cities, by imposing colorful tolls on worn-out structures, they impose heavy costs on the builders. For example, in the case of tolls on dilapidated buildings, the municipality not only does not give people money to retreat to open the passages, but also receives heavy costs as a right to quality and toll. One of the obstacles in the development of worn-out tissues is the unprofessional view and it suppresses the investor motivation in development.
We welcome the stability of the housing market, but stability is not on the way
He stated that the builders are never in favor of expensive Housing market “Naturally, we welcome the stabilization of housing prices, construction input prices and ancillary costs,” he said. Because then people can plan to buy and construction will thrive, but unfortunately the news that reaches us does not promise such a situation.
“The various costs incurred by the builders will ultimately be borne by the final buyer,” he said. Rising prices for construction materials, rising salaries, tolls resulting from the issuance of building permits, various costs of obtaining branches, engineering service packages will increase next year, and this will mean inflation in the housing market.
Pourhajat said: “Some people say that we intend to stop the jump in housing prices, but despite the law on the jump in housing production, we do not predict good conditions for next year in terms of housing construction costs.” Institutions and agencies related to the housing sector increased costs as they wished, and the private sector has no choice but to raise housing prices. The cost of production can not be increased by more than 50% and it is expected that manufacturing companies will not increase the cost of housing production.
Estimation of 7 million and 100 thousand tomans per meter for the units of the National Housing Movement
Regarding the builders’ estimates of housing construction prices next year, he said: “Based on the adjustment coefficients and indicators related to the third quarter of 1400, we announced a report to the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development for 5 or 6-roof buildings in the National Housing Movement project.” It was 7 million and 100 thousand tomans, which is minus the cost of licenses. These figures are documented in the price list booklet and rates announced by the Management and Budget Planning Organization of the country and have been calculated by announcing the coefficients and adjustment indicators for the third quarter of 1400. That is, the number of 4.5 million Tomans per square meter, which the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development has said, has become 7 million and 100 thousand Tomans, which should be examined.
The government’s insistence on unrealistic prices in the National Housing Movement
A member of the board of directors of the Mass Builders Association reminded: We said two years ago that a house could not be built with 2.7 million Tomans per square meter, but government friends did not accept. Their insistence has led to a steady increase in housing production costs, and most of those who have registered with the National Action Plan since 2009 are undecided. They were supposed to build 400,000 units by 1400, but they actually opened 40,000 units. If they accepted the real rate and the projects started, less inflation would come to the people. Many people have deposited between 50 and 160 million tomans and the units have not been built yet.
Regarding the housing market forecast for 1401, Pourhajat said: “Given the heavy price jump in the last four years, the inability to buy and the construction slump, our forecast for next year is a slump with inflation; Inflation due to rising construction costs and recession due to lack of purchasing power among applicants. In the same silence of the market, cement increased from 24,000 Tomans to 50,000 Tomans. Of course, in appearance, they say that an envelope costs 24,000 Tomans, but in practice, an envelope over 50,000 Tomans reaches the consumer. Steel, which was about 15 thousand tomans, exceeded 18 thousand tomans per kilogram. Workers’ wages, including construction workers, which are set at 57 percent for next year, have not yet been taken into account.
The price of each meter of house in Tehran is 33 million Tomans
Therefore, according to the report, in February 1400, the average price of one square meter of housing in Tehran was 33 million and 60 thousand tomans, which has increased by 0.4 and 16.4 percent, respectively, compared to the previous month and the same period of the previous year. According to the Central Bank, the number of transactions in this month was about 8.5 thousand items, which shows a decrease of 13.1 percent compared to the previous month and an increase of 117.8 percent compared to the same month last year.