How expensive was the impact of the decrease in housing production on the future of the market/houses in Tire?

According to Tejarat News, Statistics Center Recently, it published the consumer price index report in July 1401. According to this report, in the past month, the trend of the monthly and annual inflation rate of the sector Housingfor households at the level of the country and urban and rural areas, there has been an increase and a decrease point inflation.

While in June, the trend of the monthly inflation rate of this sector was decreasing for households in the country and urban areas, and the point and annual inflation of this sector was increasing. For rural households, all three items had increased.

What do the statistics say?

The report of the Statistics Center shows that the monthly inflation rate of the sector Housing In the country (percentage change of the price index number in the current month compared to the index number of the previous month), in July 1401, there was an increase. In the latest report of the Statistics Center, this figure was recorded as 3.9%, while in Khordad It was 2.3%. The comparison of two numbers shows a 69.57% increase in monthly inflation. Meanwhile, this index decreased by eight percent in June compared to May.

However, the spot inflation rate (percentage change in the price index number, compared to the same month last year), in the fourth month of this year, has decreased by 31.8%. This figure was announced as 31.9% in June. The comparison of two numbers shows a decrease of 0.31% in the spot inflation rate of this sector. This index had increased by 4.59% in June compared to April.

Also, the annual inflation rate is also considered an important indicator in the analysis of developments in the housing market. This figure shows the percentage change in the average numbers of the price index, in a year ending with the current month, compared to the index of the same period of the previous year. The annual inflation rate of this sector reached 28.1 in July 1401.

Statistics Center announced this figure as 27.5% in June of this year. This means an increase of 2.18% in the annual inflation rate of the sector Housing Is. This index increased by 1.10% in June compared to April.

What are the conditions in urban and rural areas?

The statistics mentioned so far were at the national level. But how are the conditions for households living in urban and rural areas separately?

The report of the Statistics Center shows that the monthly, spot and annual inflation rates in urban areas have reached 4, 31.8 and 28.1 percent, respectively. These figures were 2.3, 31.9 and 27.4 percent in June. In other words, the reports indicate a 0.31% drop in the spot inflation rate and an increase of 73.91% and 2.55% in the monthly and annual inflation rates of urban households for this sector.

On the other hand, the report of the Statistics Center says that the monthly, spot and annual inflation rates in rural areas have increased to 2.7, 30.6 and 29.3 percent, respectively. These figures reached 2.4, 31.9 and 29 percent in June. As a result, reports show a decrease of 4.08% in the spot inflation rate and an increase of 12.5% ​​and 1.03% in the monthly and annual inflation rate of rural households, for the sector Housing They show.

A signal of declining production statistics for the housing market

Meanwhile, according to the latest statistics, housing production is at its lowest level in the last 18 years. That too in the year when the government had promised a jump in housing production. On the other hand, due to the increase in prices, the demand for purchases has also been affected.

How do these issues generally affect the housing market in the future?

Mansour Ghaibi, an expert on the housing market, said in a conversation with Tejarat News: In economics, the balance of supply and demand balances the price. Currently, there is neither sufficient supply nor clear demand in the field of housing. For this reason, we see speculative demand in the housing economy.

He continued: When there is ineffective and speculative demand, we cannot expect the increase in apartment production to be sufficient for the consumption sector.

This expert also said: Capital demand will ultimately cause prices to collapse. In other words, in the first stage, in order to balance the price, the process of housing capital should be managed and after that, the same amount of housing should be built after identifying the real applicant.

He explained: In general, if the production of housing in the country faces stagnation, this accumulation of demand will intensify even in the field of consumption. On the other hand, the demand for capital that causes the imbalance of housing prices, as a catalyst, aggravates the problem of price increase.

Building materials are not the root of production shortage

A housing economics analyst also said in a conversation with Tejaratnews: We have no problem with housing production Building Materials We have and not land.

Baitullah Satarian, saying that housing is involved with the macro economy, said: Unfortunately, our serious problem comes back to the macro economic issues of the country. The export of materials is not the cause of the lack of housing production in the country.

He called the export of construction materials as a logical action considering that there is no internal problem in this area.

He added: Considering the production capacity of materials, the needs in different markets should be used.

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