How is the Bazarsaz plan implemented for 47,000 Toman dollars?
According to the report of Iran Economist, with the establishment of the Iranian currency and gold exchange center at the end of 1401, currency transactions gradually entered a transparent and legal market in order to provide the necessary tools for foreign exchange policy.
In the spring, the Central Bank reduced the unofficial exchange rate to 47 thousand tomans through the exchange center, which seems to be pursuing this goal in the last quarter of the year as well.
* How is the currency market controlled?
It was at the end of last year that the Central Bank of Iran presented the currency and gold exchange center as the official currency exchange market. According to the officials of the Central Bank, this market was formed in order to increase the transparency and predictability of the exchange rate in Iran. The appropriate tool for hedging the risk of currency contracts will target the stability of the Iranian currency market.
This policy, which was the main demand of Iran’s economic activists for many years, had very positive effects in 1402 and increased the central bank’s power of policy making and management of expectations.
Also, with the major entry of real currency transactions into the exchange center, we witnessed that the pricing power was taken from non-transparent and inefficient markets and the destructive effects of these markets in the economy were also reduced to a great extent.
As shown in the above diagram, informal markets are always exposed to a lot of fluctuations due to the lack of transparency of transactions, which takes away the power to make decisions for the future from economic actors.
Also, non-transparent and unsupervised markets are abused by currency monopolists, and they change prices in any direction they want, not through real supply and demand, but through manipulation of transactions and creation of Syrian supply or demand in the market. they guide
But in a market that can be monitored and transparent, the price discovery process is carried out efficiently and effectively, and the possibility of supply or demand entering the market for speculative motives or with the purpose of fluctuation is minimized, on the other hand, creating an official and transparent market. For currency, it can provide the necessary tools to control emotional behavior.
This issue was well realized in 1402 and the gold and currency exchange center was able to act as a tool for managing informal markets in Iran.
Based on the chart above, during the currency crises and the emergence of emotional behavior in the informal markets, we saw that the central bank started its foreign exchange interventions through the exchange center and through this market, it returned peace to the informal markets.
As can be seen on the left side of the chart, the unofficial currency markets increased after the New Year holidays, at this time, the central bank raised the official exchange rate to the range of 42,500 tomans and by keeping the rates constant in this range, forced the unofficial rates to retreat, this trend continued up to the range of 47 thousand tomans, and it was in this range that the market maker reduced the price of the dollar in the exchange center by one step, the stability of the official rates (with a slight downward trend), from the end of June to the beginning October caused informal markets to be in a stable and less volatile range.
But with the start of the Gaza war and the arrival of a new shock to the informal currency markets, we saw that the market maker once again issued permission to increase the official exchange rate to the range of 42 to 43 thousand tomans. This issue caused the informal markets to once again take a downward trend and despite some predictions, it returned to the channel in the range of one thousand tomans.
If we consider the trend of the spring season, it seems that the market maker intends to reduce the unofficial rates to the bottom of his movement channel by establishing the relative stability of the official rate in this range.
According to foreign exchange market experts, due to the increase of the Central Bank’s foreign exchange resources and Nimai’s surplus supply, the Central Bank will have the power to reduce the rates to its desired level.
end of message/