How likely is car price prediction / car price reduction scenario?

According to the report of Economy Online; After about 6 months of the year, the car market still hasn’t taken a downward trend; Meanwhile, the relative increase in supply by car manufacturers, car sales in Integrated system and the finalization of regulations Car import As the main policies of the Ministry of Privacy, it has not been effective so far.

A look at the car price trend in the fourth week of September also shows that the car market is resisting price reduction and we continue to see price fluctuations in this market. (Click here to read the detailed price report of the fourth week)

On the one hand, the third stage Car lottery was held and on the other hand, as the officials of the Ministry of Security have said, probably the first phase of imported cars will arrive in the country in Azar.

Estimating the equilibrium price

The most important point in the car market comes back to equilibrium prices; The car is considered as a tradable item. Therefore, the important point is to estimate the equilibrium dollar price. For this purpose, three equilibrium prices can be used. The first equilibrium price corresponds to the equilibrium dollar price in a base year (2014 and 2015). The second equilibrium dollar price is the dollar price adjusted based on the inflation of the automobile industry. The third equilibrium price is also estimated as the average of two equilibrium prices.

So here we calculate three equilibrium dollar prices:

1- Fixed equilibrium price: Based on the dollar price and the car price in the base years (2014 and 2015), we calculate the equilibrium dollar price and consider this price to be the same in all years.

2-Equilibrium price based on the global inflation of the automobile industry: In this approach, we change the fixed equilibrium price based on the changes in the price index of zero kilometer cars in the United States as a measure of the inflation of the world automobile industry.

3- The average equilibrium price: This price is calculated as the average of two fixed equilibrium prices and the equilibrium price based on the global inflation of the automobile industry in order to minimize the distortion and calculation error of the two considered approaches.

(For a detailed study of the report on how to calculate the equilibrium price, read this report.)

After estimating the equilibrium price, compare it with Vehicle price We compare; If the daily price of the car is significantly different from the estimated equilibrium price, it can be considered as a negative or positive bubble and it is expected that if other factors, specifically the dollar price, do not change significantly, the car price in the medium term tends to the equilibrium price.

For this, three car models Peugeot Pars TU5, Peugeot 206 type 2 And Tiba 2 we consider; The reason for choosing these three cars is because, firstly, they are among the most demanded cars in the market, and secondly, their production line has continued during this period.

Is the price of the car a bubble?

According to the explanations given and also the report in which the method of calculating the equilibrium price is explained in detail, we will examine the equilibrium price of the selected cars and compare it with the daily price of the cars.

Peugeot Pars TU5

Daily price of Peugeot Pars TU5 It was around 370 million Tomans. The equilibrium price of this car is 11,000 dollars based on the constant dollar price, and considering the 31,750 tomans dollar, it is about 349 million tomans. In other words, the daily price of this car is 6% more than the equilibrium price.

But if we consider the variable dollar equilibrium price based on the global inflation of the automobile industry as the criterion, we arrive at a price of about 12,890 dollars, which, according to the daily price of the dollar, means a price of about 409 million tomans. In this case, the daily price of this car is 10% lower than the equilibrium price.

Based on the average of the previous two equilibrium prices, we arrive at a price of about 379 million tomans. In other words, the daily price of this car is 2.5% lower than the equilibrium price.

In this report, we put the average equilibrium price as the criterion; Because in the equilibrium price based on the constant equilibrium price, there is a possibility of underestimation and in the equilibrium price based on global inflation, there is a possibility of overestimation. So it seemed that the price of the car Peugeot Pars TU5 At current dollar prices, it is in its equilibrium price range.

Peugeot 206 type 2

Peugeot 206 type 2 price It is equal to 298 million Tomans. The equilibrium price based on the constant dollar price is estimated at 302 million Tomans ($9,500) and the inflation-adjusted equilibrium price is estimated at 353 million Tomans ($11,133). In other words, the daily price of this car is 1.2% lower than the fixed equilibrium price and 15.7% lower than the inflation-adjusted equilibrium price. If we consider the average of these two equilibrium prices, we reach the figure of 328 million. In other words, the daily price of this car is about 9% lower than the equilibrium price. Therefore, it seems that in the current situation, the price of Peugeot 206 type 2 is in the equilibrium price range.

Tiba 2

Tiba day price 2 It is equal to 205 million Tomans. The equilibrium price of Tiba 2 is estimated at 238 million Tomans ($7,500) based on the constant dollar price, and the inflation-adjusted equilibrium price is 279 million Tomans ($8,789). If we consider the average of these two prices, the equilibrium price of Tiba 2 is estimated to be around 259 million tomans, and the current price of this car is more than 20% lower than this price.

Therefore, it seems that in the current situation of dollar price and inflationary expectations caused by JCPOA news, car price reduction is a scenario with low probability and the current prices in the car market are based on the macroeconomic realities of the country.