Identifying the risks of the stock market / which stock market industries should we invest in? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, Ahmed Janjan, a capital market expert, in a conversation with Tejarat News regarding the risks of the market due to the arrival of the summer season, said: Of course, in the stock market, we are facing power outages in the summer and gas outages in the winter. This issue has become the medium-term systematic risk of the stock market. This means that we are facing this risk at least until we can solve the problem of electricity and industrial feed.

He added: It can almost be said that market participants, both real and legal, have come to terms with this risk and include it in their investment and portfolio planning. However, the issue of electricity and gas outage still has its effect and if there is a significant drop in the reports of the companies, naturally, the market will also show a noticeable reaction to it.

Market leading industries in the summer season

Referring to the role of stocks in similar conditions, Janjan said: cement, sugar and food products will find good conditions due to their good performance. Good things are happening in some shares of the bank group and credit institutions. Especially since it is heard that they are going to take the shares of refineries from them and actually hand over these shares. (for example, to the National Development Fund) if this happens, it will have a serious impact on the financial statements of this group.

He added: “Finally, if relative stability is achieved in the exchange rate, in the sense that we have a correction to around 45 thousand tomans, and after that the currency market starts, the petrochemical and refining industries will bring significant growth to their shareholders.” But in general, I think that in the second 6 months of the year, the growth will include the whole market.

Will the market return to its upward trend?

Few people would deny the role of the dollar in the future of the stock market. Janjan examined the behavior of the currency in the coming weeks and months and said: The coincidence of these events with the news of the country’s political environment in terms of relations with neighboring countries, solving some problems that we had so far in the diplomatic environment, is definitely effective and can increase the exchange rate. Adjust a little. Therefore, we can see more calmness in Ferdowsi square transactions.

This capital market expert stated: The average value of Tehran Stock Exchange transactions has penetrated below 6 thousand billion tomans. Janjan pointed out that he said: Considering that the value of the stock market transactions has decreased, it is expected that we will be involved in a time-quantity correction, the time dimension of which is a little more full.

He added: As a rule, he should not have seen the value of transactions lower than 14 thousand billion. On the other hand, according to the macroeconomic parameters, there is no expectation of a deep correction of the total index of the stock market. For example, a deficit on the side of budget resources from oil sales; The budget has made the price of 85 dollars per barrel of oil the standard of calculations. Meanwhile, the price of oil is currently around 70 dollars per barrel.

This capital market expert added: In addition, it should be known that Iran is facing competition with Russia, which has set a ceiling of 60 dollars for oil, which has caused it to sell its oil even slightly less than this amount.

Referring to the regrowth of the market around August and September, Janjan said: In any case, it can be said that the stock market has been in the same range for several weeks in order to stabilize and stabilize. Considering the budget restrictions, I believe that around August and September, a strong start will be formed in the stock market, and by the end of the year, we will reach the total index of three to three million 500 thousand units.

He said: It seems that the market conditions will definitely be much better in the second half of the year. Also, due to the upcoming parliamentary elections, this issue becomes more prominent. According to the experience of the past years before the parliamentary elections, before the parliamentary elections, various groups, especially the rial groups of the stock market, had significant growth, which is expected to happen this year as well.