In which market should we invest? / Countdown to activate the inflation shield!

According to Tejarat News, the unpredictability of Iran’s economy has caused the outlook of Iran’s economy and the market situation to remain unclear even though we are on the threshold of the second month of 1402. In this way, capital owners are still hesitating to choose their investment destination in the new year.

This confusion increases especially when, by examining the markets from the beginning of this year until now, we see a picture of stagnation in the markets that had appeared noisy and bullish until Eid night. In such a situation, which market should be chosen for investment?

Saturation of markets in 1401

From November of last year until just a few weeks ago, the dollar was leading in the Iranian economy and it was dragging gold and coins along with it. This dollar excitement caused the parallel markets, except for stocks, to give amazing returns to their investors during the second 6 months of the year.

In this emotional atmosphere, the price of the dollar reached the level of 31 thousand tomans in early autumn to 60 thousand tomans in winter; Even the withdrawal of the dollar from this height was not as much as the governments were proud of; Because the American banknote started its work in the new year with a price of 51 thousand tomans and never returned to the channel of 30 thousand tomans in the first days of autumn 1401!

In this upward path, gold and coins moved together with the dollar and set unprecedented records. The price of each gram of 18 carat gold went from one million and 310 thousand tomans on the first day of October 1401 to two million and 640 thousand tomans on the last day of the year so that 18 carat gold recorded a 101% yield during the second 6 months of last year!

The Imami coin, as a symbol of the coin market, did not lag behind the growth of the price of gold, and from 14 million and 323 thousand tomans on the first day of autumn 1401 to 33 million and 700 thousand tomans on the last day of the year, so that the yield of this precious metal also reached 135 % reach!

Now, the transactions in these markets have been stagnant for some time and since the beginning of this year, they have not registered any interesting fluctuations and returns. Meanwhile, it does not seem that the gold and coin markets are waiting for new developments. Experts believe that these markets are currently saturated and even the prices in a market such as coins are far from their intrinsic value.

At the same time, the government and the central bank have strongly turned to the policy of suppressing prices and statistical silence, and they have grasped any means to control the price of the dollar (as the main driver of parallel markets). Although the political arm of the country cannot be neglected and the impact of the activities and international actions of the Supreme National Security Council in improving the country’s foreign relations cannot be ignored; A process that has gradually reduced the psychological insecurity of the currency market and has caused a relative stabilization of the dollar price.

In this way, it can be said that due to international policies on the one hand, control and disciplinary policies in the currency market on the other hand, along with the saturation of the markets, the dollar, gold and coins are currently out of the list of investment destinations.

On the good market of housing for big money

During the last year, due to the increase in the price of the dollar, the housing market was affected to some extent by this commotion and faced price growth in the second half of the year. However, the central bank remained silent in this uproar and did not publish any data on housing market developments since December. Even the Iranian Statistics Center continued to publish housing reports only until January, and since then, it has adjusted its policies in line with the Central Bank and in line with statistical censorship.

However, the field investigation of the housing market indicates that this market has not fallen behind the price changes in other markets and has experienced significant growth compared to its recession season.

In the meantime, it should be noted that housing has not yet started its main movement! In this way, the housing market is getting ready to officially start moving on the upward road with the start of the moving and buying and selling season from the middle of May this year.

Based on this, it can be said that this market is ready to attract money; Of course, only big money! Because the jump in housing prices in recent years and the lagging behind of housing assistance facilities from this inflation, practically removed a large part of the people who had smaller capitals and could buy a house, even a small one, from this market with their savings and adding a loan. has done.

The inflationary vertigo of Iran’s economy

In the meantime, it is no secret that Iran’s economy is still suffering from double-digit inflation and its growth rate is getting faster and faster every year! 1401 was the fourth consecutive year that the country experienced nominal inflation above 40%, and it is natural that many of the country’s economic capacities were weakened during this long period.

In this way, the risk of inflation and the inflation outlook continue to cast a shadow on Iran’s economy and the investment process in the country. At the same time, although Iran has taken great strides in improving international relations, distancing itself from the JCPOA and reluctance to restore relations with European countries has kept the risk of investing in Iran alive.

What should be done in such a situation? Which market and economic activity can maintain the value of money against inflation? Should we still seek refuge in speculative and unproductive markets such as dollars, gold, and coins, or is it better to move money to productive and productive markets?

Stock market capacity to control inflation

To get answers to these questions, you have to go to the capital market. The capital market, as an important pillar of production financing, can not only inject stray money into companies and increase their productivity, but it will also give investors a good return. Of course, this yield will be the share of both long-term investors and short-term investors who only buy and sell stocks. This market especially slows down the movement of the inflation engine and reduces the increasing excitement in the financial and commodity markets.

In this way, it seems that now is the time for the government to become more familiar with the function and capacity of the capital market and accept it. Although the transparency of the glass room of this market is always inconvenient for governments, but now is the time to make a hard decision! The engine of the stock market has been turned on since the last days of the previous year and gives the green light to the owners of small capitals.

Despite the correction in the last two days of last week, the stock market has had an acceptable record since the beginning of this year. Recording the record of the highest value of retail transactions in the last 27 months and the stability of transactions at levels above 10 thousand billion tomans have promised the return of prosperity to this market to loyal investors.

Meanwhile, in recent days, the arrival of real money has been significant; Although this trend cannot yet be interpreted as the entry of new and new money into the market, the same circulation of money in the market and the emergence of actors who were only observing cash before this will be a good stimulus and motivation for the entry of new actors. Was. This trend, especially if coupled with smart money pumping, will charge the stock market to record the best performance among parallel markets this year.

If the government is convinced not to interfere in this market, not to cause inflammation in the capital market by creating laws of creation of the hour (as in the habit of previous governments), it can be directed from the covert and directional versions such as the closure and suspension of commodity exchange transactions to the constructive and facilitating versions. It was hoped that the lost confidence of investors would return to the stock market and the wave of smart money to advance the capital market would begin.

Especially in this year, when the two stock and housing markets will compete with each other, if the government prevents the attraction of money in the capital market by any means and reason or does not facilitate the entry of money into this market, it will be a hard and bitter year for Housing buyers and tenants will be determined.

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