In which market should we invest? / The competition of markets to attract stray liquidity
According to Tejarat News, the unknown status of Iran’s nuclear negotiations and the chaotic economic conditions have caused financial market instability and people’s confusion in identifying the right time to enter the markets.
In the past week, the financial markets experienced a fluctuating price trend under the influence of political news; All markets fell into a defensive lock this week, which indicated that investors were wandering to enter the markets. Now the main question for capital owners is which market to enter as a shield against inflation will protect the value of their assets and in the optimal case, will be more profitable?
The inevitable fall in the value of the rial in the shadow of inflation
Peyman Molavi, an economist, told Tejarat News about the state of the financial markets in a one-year period: “If we want to examine the trends of the markets in a big way and in a one-year period, the fact is that according to the conditions of the country’s economy, the prospects are optimistic.” is not.”
He added: “Also, in terms of liquidity and economic growth and similar cases, the devaluation of the rial is a definite thing.” This economic expert continued: “If inflation can be controlled or JCPOA achieves good results, the decline in the value of the rial will be slower.”
Molvi clarified: “But in order to check which markets can be faster, it should be measured that in the case of 60 percent inflation, all markets will decrease due to the scarcity of goods in demand and weak supply, such as the unavailability of cars and property to the extent of Enough, they face price increases.”
Which market has more dollar yield?
Molloy also explained about the dollar return of the markets: “In my opinion, in 1402, the highest dollar return of the markets in terms of risk will belong to the real estate market.”
He stated: “After the real estate market, there are the dollar, gold, and then stocks markets, respectively. Of course, in the end, in terms of dollar yield, they will be close to each other and we will not see much difference.”
The dollar market is looking forward to the JCPOA
In the early days of this week, the price of the dollar fluctuated between 51 and 52 thousand tomans, but the visit of the King of Oman first sent an increasing signal to the market; Because traders were waiting for the release of news about the Sultan of Oman’s meeting with Iranian officials, but these meetings were held in silence. In this way, the price of the dollar came out of the defensive lock and grew slightly.
However, it gradually became clear that this political official was the bearer of America’s message to Iran regarding the country’s desire to resume negotiations; Therefore, the price of the dollar started to decrease again and by the end of the week it has reached the channel of 50 thousand tomans.
It should be noted that this price reduction did not lead to a bright future for the dollar market. Some believe that the channel of 50 thousand tomans is the support line for the dollar and if it breaks it, the downward trend of the dollar may continue, but if the dollar maintains this support, it will probably fluctuate within the current limits.
However, it should be noted that according to the previous experiences of the markets, if something special happens in the political or economic supply, it can strengthen the dollar in its upward or downward direction.
In recent days, the news of the JCPOA has sent a downward signal to the dollar. Last night, the news also indicated the possibility of a prisoner exchange between Iran and the United States. At the same time, some visits to Oman by American officials have strengthened the hypothesis of the resumption of negotiations.
Following the gold and coin market from the dollar
The gold and coin market is always subject to the two factors of the dollar and the world price of gold. During this week, the price of the coin, which was in the channel of 31 million tomans on Saturday, experienced a price decrease of about 600 thousand tomans with the signal of the arrival of the King of Oman in the country and fell behind the half of the channel of 30 million tomans.
As it was said, due to the lack of effective news about the meeting between the King of Oman and the Iranian officials on the first day of the meeting, the coin aligned with the dollar was again on the upward path and reached the threshold of 31 million Tomans channel. Emami’s coin is now at the bottom of the 30 million tomans channel with the positive news signal of America’s willingness to re-enter the negotiations.
On the other hand, global gold also experienced a downward trend this week; However, by the end of this week, the global gold price also increased and reached 1983 dollars at the time of writing this report. This process can slightly strengthen the price of gold and coins in the Iranian market. However, in the coming week, the markets are in a semi-suspended state, and accordingly, it is not clear how and when the effect of such economic developments will be manifested.
Experts believe that if the dollar crosses the border of 50 thousand tomans and enters the lower channels, the coin will probably follow the dollar and leave the channel of 30 million tomans and enter the range of 20 million tomans.
Is the housing market heating up?
However, the housing market is not a market that is directly affected by the news of the dollar price and political trends like coins; However, experts believe that due to the unstable conditions of the real estate market and the prospect of increasing inflation, it seems that housing prices in the country will increase at least until the end of 2012.
At the same time, real estate consultants in some areas of Tehran say that policies such as the capital gains tax, which was recently implemented in the housing market, have caused an increase in the supply of housing by sellers since mid-May. This can ultimately provide the possibility of finding an apartment with more suitable conditions for both categories of applicants, i.e. real buyers and capital buyers.
Will the car market come to life?
The car market has always been the focus of investors. Especially during the past months, the implementation of the integrated car purchase and car supply plan in the commodity exchange showed how hungry the wandering capitals are to enter this market.
The car price went down in the last months of 1401, but at the beginning of 1402, it took a stable path until the middle of May. From this period onwards, the implementation of the second phase of the car sales plan in the integrated system reduced the prices again to the extent that some assembled cars experienced a price drop of half a billion.
After that, until now, market transactions have plunged into stagnation and reached zero; There are many sellers in the market, but buyers are not willing to buy at the moment. If the delivery date of registered cars is earlier, this process will continue; Otherwise, it is possible that the prices will be on the upward path.
However, a few negative signals now have the potential to ignite a fire under the ashes of car prices. Signals such as the letter of the CEO of Automobile Managers to the Ministry of Safety regarding the suspension of the production of this company’s products and events related to the currency market, along with developments and political news, are among the variables that affect the price trend in the automobile market.
Stock market profitability for smart investors
The stock market was the only market that survived inflation last year and showed that it still has a large capacity for capital inflow. But this market has gone through ups and downs since the beginning of this year. While the stock market spent the first month of this year breaking records and witnessed high value of small transactions and a large volume of buying and selling shares, but from the middle of May, the page turned and the market went down.
In this way, the trust that was gradually returning to the traders suddenly disappeared, so that the stock market entered the third month of the year with a fluctuating and ups and downs trend. In recent days, the stock market has not followed a promising trend and has faced very low value and volume of transactions.
However, an important feature is considered as an advantage of investing in the stock market and makes this market attractive compared to other investments; This feature is actually the variety of investment goals.
The capital market allows investors to choose a portfolio of diverse stocks and profit from various economic and political signals. At the same time, all types of investment funds, both stock and commodity, are also highly attractive for purchase. But what should be taken into consideration when investing in the stock market is to pay attention to the pillar of investment analysis and advice so that the bitter experience of 1999 is not repeated.
It seems that the markets will continue to fall and rise until there is no reliable news about the political developments between Iran and the United States. Sometimes they will be upward and sometimes downward, but in the meantime, they will face a decrease in the volume of transactions, which shows that investors are currently in a cautious phase.
Based on this, maybe patience and analysis can clarify the right direction of investment in the coming days.
Read the latest news related to the foreign exchange and gold market on the gold and currency page of TejaratNews.