Investigating the state of the stock market in the first half of the year/ a zero in favor of the stock market! – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, the stock market experienced many ups and downs during the first half of this year. The golden days of the first half of spring and then, the upward trend of the market, which was interrupted from the middle of May, then the downward trend of the market, which during 73 working days reduced 23.94% equivalent to more than 610 thousand units from the height of the total index, until the recession days of September, all And all in the first 6 months of this year, there were bitter and sweet days for the shareholders.

Positive performance of the total stock market index in the first half of the year

In the picture above, the yield of the total index is shown separately for spring and summer months. As it is known, only in April and September, a positive return was experienced in the monthly dimension, and in other months, the index finished the whole work with a negative return.

However, the efficiency of the main thermometer of the glass hall at the end of the first 6 months of the year was 8.2%.

23% jump of the equal weight index

Meanwhile, the situation in the equal-weighted index, which shows the general trend of the prices of small and medium-sized companies in the market, also went according to the wishes of the shareholders. So that the yield of this glass hall display at the end of spring and summer this year was more than 23%. This shows that the people of the capital market have shown more favor to the medium and small capital market stocks than the index-making stocks.

The volume and value of retail transactions

The average volume and value of retail transactions have also repeated the movement pattern of the glass hall indicators. The transaction value index had an upward trend until the middle of May, and at the end of the second week of this month, it reached the peak of 21 thousand 121 billion tomans as the average value of the week’s transactions.

As the market began to fall from May 17, this figure gradually decreased until it reached an average of 3,570 billion tomans in the last week of August. The return of the market with news therapy gave a positive shock to the volume and value of transactions, and in the first week of September, simultaneously with the growth of the total index, these two factors of evaluating the flow of transactions in the capital market experienced a double growth.

However, after the excitement of the positive news subsided, the value of transactions continued to decline in the four weeks of September.

The independent trend of the stock market from parallel markets

Investigating the behavior of the stock market shows several upward and downward rallies during the mentioned period. At the beginning of the year, the positive sentiment of the market kept the transactions hot. The cold season of the stock market began very soon, with the news of an increase in feed rates for refineries. The correction which took more than 100 days and finally with the news of the correction of the feed rate and the stability of its formula for the next 5 years, along with the increase of the exchange rate in the calculation of the base price of petrochemical and refining products in the commodity exchange, was able to spread the red carpet for the return of the market.

However, the last days of September, contrary to the expectations for the start of the next wave of upward rally, were spent in a dull and uneventful way, so that the people of the capital market kept their eyes on the way of autumn.

However, the examination of parallel markets shows that while the price of gold and coins has moved with the smallest distance from the price of the dollar and following this market, the stock market has gone its own way and experienced its ups and downs, ignoring the parallel markets. . This is despite the fact that it was said before that fluctuations in the price of the dollar give a trend to the stock market, but it seems that since the price of the dollar spends days with the lowest fluctuation and does not experience a special peak or nadir, the stock market has also ignored it. Is.

As shown in the chart above (the trend of parallel markets in the first half of 1402), the total stock market index has gone its own way and experienced a different trend without paying attention to the price trends in the dollar and then gold and coin markets.

In this way, while the price of the dollar recorded a negative return of 4.6% at the end of the first 6 months of the year, the total stock market index had a positive return of 8.2%. Based on this, it can be said that the first half of the year ended with nothing in favor of the stock market!

Read more reports on the capital market page.