Is interest rate reduction continuing?
According to Tejarat News, it was a few months ago that the interbank interest rate reached the range of 21.31% and somehow broke the ceiling in 1401.
According to the report of the Central Bank, the bank interest rate decreased by 0.05% and reached the level of 20.59. Of course, economic experts believe that this reduction in interest rates is temporary and will increase in the long term.
Currently, some experts believe that the decrease in bank interest rates is a positive signal for the capital market. It means that the stock market will rise in the long term. Of course, it takes 10 to three months for the bank interest rate to be effective, and this rate cannot affect the market instantly.
On the other hand, some experts believe that the increase in bank interest rates is beneficial to the stock market. This means that the increase in the interbank interest rate will increase the stock market in the long term.
What is the reason for the increase in the interbank interest rate?
Vahid Nekui, capital market analyst, said about the bank interest rate: There are two reasons for the increase in the interest rate, first; Increase in banks’ demand for bank reserves and secondly, decrease in the supply of new reserves by the central bank.
He explained the first reason for the interest rate increase and stated: Usually, according to the production cycle of the country’s enterprises, after the first two months of the year, according to the past trend, the need of manufacturing enterprises for working capital, loans and facilities increases. Therefore, banks’ demand for reserves increases accordingly.
This capital market expert continued: Regarding the second reason, it should be said that since the economic team and policy makers of the 13th government are trying to control inflation by curbing the growth rate of the monetary base. It is natural that as a result of this policy, by reducing the supply of new reserves and adopting a contractionary policy, the interest rate in the interbank market will increase.
In the end, Nekui said: I don’t think we should expect a decrease in the interbank interest rate in the short term with this situation.