Market efficiency in the first week of August 1401/ Which market had the highest efficiency?
According to Tejarat News, Market performance in the first week of August, shows that two markets experienced decline and one experienced growth. The efficiency of a market was also zero.
Dollar price
Dollar price In the first week of August, it dropped by 0.17%. This was the lowest negative return among financial markets. This market had dropped by 0.21% last week.
National ExchangeOn Thursday, August 6, he announced the sale rate of the dollar at 27,798 tomans. Meanwhile, on Thursday, July 30, the exchange board showed the figure of 27,846 Tomans.
Dollar price fluctuations
The price of the dollar in the open market fluctuated this week. The figures announced in some Telegram channels showed that the American currency went to a higher price channel and came back again. In the following, it moved to a higher level again, but it did not reach it and it decreased again. The dollar ended the week down in the free market. Of course, some sources also believe that these channels announce prices higher than the real figure.
gold price
But the yield of the gold market in the week ending August 7, 1401, was associated with 0.94% growth. Last week, gold experienced the biggest negative return among financial markets with a 1.88% drop.
gold price On Thursday, it reached one million 367 thousand 785 Tomans. This is despite the fact that every gram of gold was traded for 1 million 355 thousand 89 tomans on July 30.
Prices for coins
The buyers of the coin market did not make a profit or a loss this week and the efficiency of this market was zero.
Prices for coins The new plan was announced on Thursday, August 6, like last Thursday, 14,800,000 Tomans.
Market Gold and coins Also this week, they experienced fluctuations and in the last days of the week, their movement was reversed compared to the dollar market. gold price At the beginning of the week, it was in the range of 1,371,000 Tomans, but it continued to decrease. In such a way that it reached one million and 340 thousand tomans. Of course, gold finished the week higher.
Prices for coins It was also fluctuating. In such a way that the coin of the new plan rose several times during the week towards the channel of 15 million tomans, but did not reach it and mostly fluctuated between 14 million and 800 to 14 million and 900 thousand tomans. The price of the old design coin fluctuated between 14,100,000 and 14,150,000 tomans. Both coin designs ended the week lower.
Price oz Also, in total, it passed a week with fluctuations, but the increase ended.
Exchange
But in another way Market performance in the first week of AugustOverall Index Exchange As in previous weeks, it dropped. The capital market ended this week at the level of 1,443,712 units.
Meanwhile, the total index of the stock market reached 1 million 471 thousand 898 units on the last working day of last week, Wednesday, July 30. These figures mean a 1.91% drop in the total index, which is the highest negative return among financial markets. Of course, the capital market finished the week green. Last week, the stock market lost 1.22% of the total index.
Sara Fallah, capital market expert, at Weekly forecast of the stock market He said: We started August with the color of disappointment in the stock market. There is a saying of greatness that says “the right speech at the right time is worth” is the story of these days and good reports of 3 months. The stock exchange was expecting 3-month reports since the beginning of June. But no single factor can affect the market.
He added: “Different items can neutralize the effects. After August 2019 and after 24 months have passed since those days, Hanur plays the main role of parameters in the capital market. Whenever the government and macroeconomic decisions were in line with the market, a new life was injected into the activists. Whenever the government opposed the market, not by decree, but even by talking, the worst possible form of despair was formed in the market.
Effective signals on market performance
According to Tejarat News, in the recent period financial markets including DollarUnder the influence Vienna talks and political news were located Yesterday, the dollar rate was decreasing.
In these days, there are also signals from Nuclear negotiations It has been sent to the dollar market, followed by gold and coins.
A senior White House official claimed: Negotiations for a new agreement with Iran are almost complete, but it is Iran’s responsibility to accept the agreement or not!
According to Isna, Brett McGurk, the coordinator of the White House for Middle East and North Africa affairs, has claimed that the United States does not believe that the nuclear agreement with Iran will be revived now.
Meanwhile, some other American officials repeatedly claim that a new agreement with Iran is on the table and that it is the Islamic Republic that must decide whether to accept this agreement or not.
Iran welcomes the continuation of the path of diplomacy and negotiation
On the other hand, Hossein Amirabdollahian, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of our country, in a telephone conversation with Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy official, said: “There is no doubt in the will of the Islamic Republic of Iran to reach a good, strong and stable agreement.”
He added: “If America takes a realistic step towards finding a solution and reaching an agreement, a good agreement will be available to all parties.”
Referring to the recently presented text by Burrell, Amir Abdullahian emphasized: Iran welcomes the continuation of the path of diplomacy and negotiation.ISNA).
What direction will the price of dollars, gold and coins go?
Mojtaba Diba, an expert in financial markets, believes that the price Dollars, gold and coins In the short term, it is likely to have a slight fluctuation, and their sharp downward and upward changes depend on the publication of positive or negative news about the JCPOA.
According to him, now Prices are trapped in a fixed range; As a result, their floors are buying opportunities and their ceilings are selling opportunities.
Controlling the markets with currency manipulation and price suppression
Earlier, Ali Tabatabai, an expert on financial markets, told Tejarat News: Now, one of the factors controlling the currency price in the free or agreed market is the central bank’s currency manipulation and it has nothing to do with the natural market trend. The market maker can control supply and demand only temporarily Prices to control
He added: the policymaker can continue suppressing the price as long as he has enough resources for currency exchange. Finally, there is such a possibility in two to three months.
According to Tabatabai, but if the same procedure continues and Nuclear negotiations It will remain in an aura of ambiguity, even if it moves a little towards non-agreement, the government will keep the price of the dollar low with the foreign exchange policy.
This is an expert on price Gold and coins He also said: The global price of gold will probably not experience a heavy fall until the beginning of 2023, which coincides with the beginning of December this year. Gold is expected to rise again in the medium term, due to the relative adjustment of the US contractionary policies. But in the long term, the global gold trend will probably be downward.
He states: If something strange does not happen in the country’s currency market and the price control policy continues, domestic gold will probably follow the fluctuations of the ounce in the medium term. so that after a small drop, it will temporarily rise in the next few months. But if the negative news from the negotiations makes the price of the dollar rise, the scenario may change completely.
Political signals and macroeconomic indicators in the domestic and international dimension on the price Dollar are effective
The price of the dollar watched the JCPOA
Ekhtezdannews wrote: The price of the dollar watched the JCPOA on Thursday, August 6, and coin traders advanced up to the channel of 15 million tomans, but in the end they lost this embankment.
The intrinsic value of the coin was over 13 million tomans and the coin bubble retreated to 14%. Today, the dollar rate was almost 70 tomans lower than on Wednesday. The American banknote was also locked in the Herat market and did not experience any particular ups and downs compared to yesterday. The difference between the dollar price in Tehran and Herat was almost 100 tomans.
It seems that the new currency policies of the market-making body and the increase in the volume of supply with the agreed rate have caused the free market to become less popular. Of course, the neighboring market did not issue a downswing order to Tehran today.
Traders also took into account the aspects of caution with the negative signals of the JCPOA and watched the market more.
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