Media war against the 13th government in the oil market / Has Russia replaced Iran?

According to IRNA, about 110 days have passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A war that has affected the oil market more than anything else, raising oil prices from about $ 80 to over $ 120 a barrel.

In addition to a 50 percent increase in the price of black gold, the tension has also changed the balance of the oil market, and Russia is looking for new markets to sell its oil, given the European Union’s embargo on Russia’s oil and gas industry.

Meanwhile, the proximity of major Asian markets, including China and India, has led to increased attention to these two markets. Markets that traditionally receive most of their oil from Middle Eastern producers.

This raised concerns about the replacement of Russian oil with Iranian oil in the Chinese market. Concerns that are not so true looking at the statistics.

Iran’s oil production has increased in recent months, according to OPEC figures. Due to the fact that domestic consumption is stable, the oil produced is mostly spent on exports.

Also, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, which examines developments in the oil market after the Russia-Ukraine war, the shift in the Russian oil market from Europe to Asia will not affect the Iranian oil market, and by the end of the year it will be between 50 and 150. It will be a thousand barrels per day.

Also, Russian oil exports to India have increased by about 700,000 barrels per day, so the main destination for the increase in Russian oil exports is India and exports to China have not changed much. Iran’s oil market is more concentrated in China, and China did not stop importing oil from Iran even under sanctions.

Therefore, the shift of Russian oil exports from Europe to Asian markets has not affected Iran’s oil exports, and based on these statistics, rumors of a decrease in Iran’s oil exports due to Russian sanctions can be denied.

On the other hand, Russian oil exports through the pipeline have been stable and have increased their maritime exports since last winter.

Given that most Russian oil exports to China are made via pipelines, Russian oil exports to China have not increased and maritime exports to more distant routes such as India have increased.

Also, the statistics of tankers show that Iran’s oil exports in April (May) was 1.1 million barrels. According to the Kepler Institute, Iran exports 800,000 barrels of oil per day. This is despite the fact that Iran’s oil exports in the previous government had dropped to less than 500,000 barrels per day, but the 13th government, relying on domestic power and regardless of the continuation of sanctions, increased oil exports.

According to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Iran’s oil production is also increasing, and by the end of this year, Iran’s oil production will increase from the current 2.5 million barrels to 2.75 million barrels.

So far, Russian oil has not replaced oil in any of Iran’s oil markets. While statistics show that Russian oil has had the greatest impact on US oil markets and members of OPEC Plus. Of course, by the end of the year, about 50,000 barrels of Iranian oil exports may be affected by Russia.

Statistics from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies show that Russian oil has so far accounted for about one million barrels of OPEC Plus members’ oil markets.

The same is true of US oil, and Russian oil has put about one million barrels of the US oil market at risk.

Therefore, not only Russia did not enter the Iranian oil market, but also Iran and Russia were able to have more oil exports during this period.