Misconceptions about the future of the iPhone: “Convergent products will not succeed”
Advertising Age magazine had predicted the iPhone in future articles in 2007 and believed that the phone Failure Will eat; The prediction was wrong and the iPhone was able to make Apple the most valuable company to follow.
A user named John Erlikman recently posted a picture of an old Ad Age magazine article twitter Shared that the future of the iPhone was predicted. The author of this article «El RiceHe wrote this when the iPhone had not yet entered the market.
He had predicted that Iphone Will lead to user frustration. In part, the article read: “The iPhone is very hype. Apple says the iPhone is actually five years ahead of other phones. One market analyst said that the iPhone has the potential to be even IPod “Be more successful.”
However, Mr. Rice did not believe so. He believed that the iPod was a device Heterogeneous Or Specialty Was, while the iPhone wanted a product converge Be. According to him, specialized products have been very successful in the world of advanced technologies. But convergent devices have largely failed.
“The first MP3 players (for example, Diamond Rio) had flash drives that could only hold 20 or 30 songs,” Rice wrote. But it had the first iPod hard drive and could store thousands of songs. “Previously, there were two types of MP3 players that show a clear example of heterogeneity.”
The iPhone is not a specialized device
This article told everyone Advanced devices They follow a similar pattern: “The first computer was a miniframe computer. Then came the minicomputers, desktops, laptops, desktops, servers, and other specialized computers. “Computers did not merge with another device, but parted ways.”
“When mobile phones were first introduced, they were known as ‘car phones’ because they were so big and heavy, and they were thought to eventually be combined with cars,” Rice said. But that did not happen. “Phones have become more incoherent and come in a variety of forms.” He said stores were full of convergent devices at the time, but which converged product was successful?
Rice continued: “Microsoft It spent $ 425 million to buy WebTV and invested more than half a billion dollars in the company. But this adventure did not work. They later switched to Ultimate TV, which again failed. Now everyone is talking about Third display “They talk, a mobile screen that can be seen on TV, but relatively few people are looking for that.”
The article went on to argue that the media would question not the overall concept but the way the product is implemented: “The failure of a convergent product is never considered a failure of a concept; “This failure is always considered a failure in the field of implementation.” So the media will say the product concept was good, but the company did not implement it properly.
However, it can be seen that this prediction is mainly the mistake Was and iPhone to one most successful Products became history.