Mr. Hemti, who is rehydrated, does not prohibit rehydration/ 19% decrease in inflation since the establishment of the 13th government
According to the economic reporter of Fars News Agency, the twelve-month growth trend of the monetary base has experienced a significant decrease from 42.6% at the end of July 1400 to 34.5% after the beginning of the 13th government and affected by the government’s disciplinarian approach and the active monetary and supervisory policies of the Central Bank. It arrived at the end of October 1401.
As the developments of the monetary variables show, despite the implementation of the popularization plan and the fair distribution of subsidies and the removal of the preferred currency and cash subsidy deposit, the said variable is still on its downward path. Therefore, it is expected that in analyzing the performance of economic variables, including monetary base growth, their previous evolutions will also be taken into consideration.
* The trends of economic indicators such as liquidity growth and inflation have changed
Examining the country’s economic statistics in the past year confirms the change in the trend of economic indicators such as liquidity growth and inflation despite the government’s budget restrictions.
In this regard, the analysis of the twelve-month growth rate of liquidity shows that this component has decreased from 42.8% at the end of October 1400 during a downward trend to 34.3% at the end of October 1401. Therefore, this year, due to the efforts and focus of the Central Bank on the implementation of the policy of controlling the growth of banks’ balance sheets and imposing penalties (adjustment of the legal deposit ratio) for delinquent banks, it can be seen that the growth of banks’ money creation and consequently liquidity has been controlled to a significant extent. Is.
In addition, it should be noted that with the occurrence of inflationary shocks from the supply side, the need of economic operators for liquidity to continue their activities increases, which is one of the factors of liquidity growth in the economy.
* The relationship between the central bank and banks has been regularized
Regarding the central bank’s monetary policy and the increase in repurchase agreements, it should be said: the central bank focuses on securing and regularizing the financial relationship between itself and the banking network (through the development of open market operations and providing regular facilities to banks in the interest rate corridor ceiling rate ) and by using market-oriented tools, it pursues its operational goal of controlling the growth of liquidity and monetary base.
Therefore, according to the policy objectives and its forecasts of the liquidity situation in the interbank market and the situation of reserves required by banks and credit institutions, in order to stabilize the interest rate of the interbank market around the policy rate and also to control the overdraft of banks in relation to Increasing the volume of open market operations in the form of a repurchase agreement (with a maturity of one week) has been done on a case-by-case basis.
* Mr. Hemti, having bathed does not prohibit bathing
The former head of the Central Bank, during his tenure as the head of the Central Bank, repeatedly faced with exchange rate fluctuations and stated in various interviews that the rates in the informal market were not real and unnatural. Now, how can he lead the central bank to make the rates in this market the basis and criterion of its policies and make the remittance market subordinate to the informal market rates.
In other words, his intended policy of increasing the exchange rate in the remittance market with the justification that the gap between the official and informal market will be reduced, means that the market maker and the official market will become subject to the temporary emotions of the informal market.
Meanwhile, the exchange rate in the informal market is mainly affected by the publication of some news and rumors that are incompatible and inconsistent with the economic realities of the country, and in particular, the fundamental factors (such as positive developments in the foreign sector of the economy), have faced intermittent and transient fluctuations, which of course It is expected that the aforementioned fluctuations will decrease due to the favorable situation of foreign exchange resources and trade flows of the country, as well as positive measures that are on the agenda in the field of international relations.
* Nima’s rent is higher or 4200 tomans currency rent?
Mr. Hemmati interpreted the gap between the exchange rate in the remittance market (NIMA system) and the informal market as “NIMA rent”. In this regard, it should be noted that the main cause of this gap is the registration of unrealistic rates inconsistent with the country’s economic realities in the informal market.
Due to the occurrence of such conditions, the Central Bank’s policy approach has been aimed at balancing the flow of supply and demand in the remittance market with emphasis on strengthening the flow of supply from the exporters, so that through this market, in the said market as the main source of foreign exchange for the import of household consumer goods As well as primary and intermediate materials and capital goods needed by domestic production enterprises, a suitable stability will emerge. Therefore, what is considered as Nima rent from Mr. Hemti’s point of view, is actually the policymaker’s approach and effort to protect people’s livelihood as well as the domestic production system from irrational and temporary fluctuations in the exchange rate in the informal market.
Mr. Hemti has stated that the exchange rate in the NIMA system should not be more than 5% away from the free (informal) market and currently the difference between these two markets has reached over 35%. In this connection, the analysis of the evolution of the dollar rate in the informal market and the remittance market (NIMA) during his tenure at the central bank shows that from November 2018, the gap between these two rates started an upward trend and reached more than 10% and even At some points in 2019, the price difference was more than 30%. He also stated that currently the price difference of these two markets has reached over 35%. This is despite the fact that such a gap has been created between the two rates on few and very few days, and the gap between the mentioned rates in the third quarter of this year was about 23% on average.
In his recent interview, he said that the issuance of gold coin deposit certificates by the central bank was a strategic mistake of this bank, and after that the exchange rate increased sharply and the market maker lost control of the market.
At the same time, they have considered the issuance of foreign currency bonds by the Central Bank as a failed measure. Regarding the issue raised by him regarding the release of gold coin deposit certificates in the stock exchange, it is necessary to mention that this policy was designed and implemented in a very limited manner, mainly with the aim of reducing the price bubble of gold coins, and according to the previous experiences of this bank, it has never It is not looking to auction its gold reserves. At the same time, the claim that the price of the Central Bank’s gold coin bonds is oriented to the exchange rate is not in proportion to reality; Because his citation in proving this statement is focused on the trend of exchange rate developments in the informal market in the days after the release and sale of gold coin deposit certificates by the Central Bank, while the increase in the exchange rate in the informal market is often rooted in mainly non-economic factors and news and There are false rumors, and of course, before the release of these bonds, the exchange rate was associated with increasing fluctuations.
Therefore, understanding and interpreting the cause-effect relationship from the coincidence of these two events from a theoretical point of view is flawed and ambiguous. Also, in connection with the issuance of foreign currency bonds, it should be mentioned that one of the policy approaches of the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market was to recognize the small demand of people (both consumption, discretionary and investment) in the foreign exchange market and introduce new tools to respond to it. is to limit the areas of trading in the informal market.
Therefore, the central bank decided to respond to part of the retail demand in the foreign exchange market through the issuance of short-term (three-month) currency bonds.
Some false claims have been made regarding the government’s economic performance in a situation where the point-to-point inflation rate in February 2019 (65.3 percent) and the average inflation rate of twelve in September 1400 (59.3 percent) experienced their highest figures in the last forty years. Was.
According to the Central Bank’s report on changes in the price index of consumer goods and services in urban areas, the inflation rate (twelve months) at the time of the beginning of the 13th government had reached a record low of 59.3% in September 1400, but following the policies implemented and Executive measures in the field of more effective management of changes in monetary totals, monitoring the prices of goods and services and proper supply of basic goods, the inflation rate began a downward trend from that point on and reached 46.2 percent at the end of 1400, which confirms a decrease of 13.0 The percentage unit is the inflation rate. In this connection, the point-to-point inflation rate decreased by 25.3 percentage points from 54.9% in September of 1400 to 29.5% in March of this year.
Although the downward trend of the inflation rate point by point since the beginning of this year was affected by the inflationary effects of the implementation of the legal duty of the popularization of subsidies and the elimination of preferential currency allocation, it stopped and in the first four months of this year, as expected, faced an increasing trend, but considering that the aforementioned policy It usually caused the price correction of a number of goods subject to receiving preferential currency directly and indirectly, the inflation level of basic food commodities returned to its previous path from August of this year, and in total, point-to-point inflation of the price index of consumer goods and services from August of this year with The reduction has been accompanied by the fact that this has continued in November of this year and has reached 44.3% in November from 45.8% in August of this year. Meanwhile, the twelve-month average inflation rate in November of this year was recorded as 39.9 percent, which shows a 19.4 percent decrease compared to the inflation rate at the time of the establishment of the 13th government (59.3 percent).
An important part of the increase in inflation formed during the current year is due to the correction of the prices of basic goods following the implementation of the subsidy popularization plan, which, of course, has been compensated for the loss of welfare through the payment of cash subsidies. Therefore, by deducting the inflationary effects of the implementation of this plan, the implementation of which was inevitable due to economic necessity, lower levels of the inflation rate could also be realized as a result of the measures and measures taken. Therefore, referring only to the increase in the inflation rate regardless of the relations and economic conditions of the recent period, including the implementation of the large subsidy popularization plan, is a one-sided and far from fair assessment.
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