National fuel -9 | Development of CNG to maintain a positive level of gasoline and diesel

According to the economic correspondent of Fars News Agency, a study of the production and consumption of gasoline and diesel in the country shows that the balance of these two fuels is reaching a tipping point and then becoming negative.

In other words, if the previous trend continues in the previous government, Iran will join the group of importers of gasoline and diesel by 1402, and the country will not only be deprived of the benefits of currency exports of petroleum products, but also in the coming years will be a significant valuation.

Javad Oji, Minister of Oil, in February of last year in the program “Negah Yek” on the First Channel of Sima, referring to the negative level of the country’s gasoline said: In the next two to three years, due to this trend of gasoline and gas oil consumption in the country, we will be among the countries importing gas oil and gasoline products.

* Iran’s gasoline level in 1401 reaches its peak

Figure 1 shows a graph of gasoline production and consumption according to the statistics of consumption of energy petroleum products. According to this chart, the amount of production and consumption of gasoline this year (1401) will reach a breaking point, ie consumption will be equivalent to the daily production of 100 million liters of gasoline.

Figure 1

The Center for Value Chain Studies has also predicted the amount of gasoline consumption in 1401 to be equal to 99.5 million liters per day (Figure 2). The record-breaking gasoline consumption during the Nowruz holiday in 1401, with 131 million liters per day, is practically a sign of a gasoline crisis in the not too distant future.

Figure 2

Also, according to some reports of the National Company for Refining and Distribution, the average production of gasoline in 1400 was about 96 million liters per day.

Keramat Weiss Karami, Executive Vice President of the National Refining and Distribution Company, also estimates gasoline consumption Says: We forecast an increase in average consumption in 1401 to 95 million liters per day, and we estimate an increase of 8% over last year.

Although the exact figures for gasoline production and consumption fluctuate slightly, all these statistics indicate that the gasoline level has improved this year.

* In 1402, diesel consumption will exceed production

According to Figure 3, it is predicted that the level of Iranian diesel will reach a breaking point in 1402, after which the consumption of diesel will exceed production. This chart is based on the statistics of consumption of energy-producing petroleum products and the reports of the National Company for Refining and Distribution of Petroleum Products.

Figure 3

Last year, with the increase in diesel consumption in power plants in the cold months, contradictory news about the import of several shipments of diesel to Iran was raised in the country’s media.

According to the plan of the National Refining and Distribution Company, the consumption of diesel in 1400 was projected at 96.4 million liters per day, but eventually the daily consumption of 100.5 million liters per day (by the end of February 1400) was achieved; That is 5% more than the Ministry of Oil estimates.

As a result, if the current trend of diesel production and consumption continues, a crisis of shortage of this fuel and its import will be possible. Of course, all these estimates are about the resumption of production and consumption of diesel and gasoline, assuming the continuation of the previous trend.

* The problem of negative fuel balance is not solved with the construction of petroleum refineries at the moment

In general, two ways to prevent the negative level of gasoline and diesel are the progress of the Ministry of Oil of the 13th government: 1- Increase fuel production by building refineries and petroleum refineries 2- Reduce gasoline and diesel consumption by developing alternative fuels such as CNG.

on file “Selected petrochemical projectsThe 11 designs listed in Table 1 were reviewed. According to studies, none of the major refining projects in the 13th government will be operational, and only a few gas condensate projects with predominantly petrochemical production will be completed.

Table 1

As a result, the problem of fuel balance in the coming years cannot be solved simply by increasing production through the construction of oil refineries. Of particular importance is the development of CNG as an alternative fuel for gasoline and diesel, an issue that has been somewhat neglected in the Thirteenth Government.

* The Ministry of Petroleum neglects the development of CNG in the fuel basket

Existence of rich natural gas resources in the country has made the development of cheap CNG compressed natural gas fuel in the car fuel basket one of the main priorities of the country. Earlier, the Supreme Energy Council in its document “Energy supply of the country’s transportation sector to the horizon of 1420” had emphasized on doubling the consumption of CNG in cars up to the horizon of 1420.

But in the 13th government, the development of CNG was not supported as it should be, and so far no other step has been taken except the signing of a contract for the production of 30,000 taxis and 15,000 dual-fuel vans between the National Petroleum Products Distribution Company and Iran Khodro.

Fars News Agency earlier in the case «National fuelIn 8 reports, it has examined the capacities, challenges and strategies for the development of CNG in the country as a national fuel. Given that there will be no increase in production of gasoline and diesel in the country at the moment, it seems that the only way for the Ministry of Oil to prevent the negative level of gasoline and diesel is to support the development of CNG.

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