Negative signal of stock market fluctuations to mortgage
According to Tejarat News, the jump in the price of mortgage bonds, with the average price of each bond exceeding 100,000 Tomans in recent days, has created an important question in the loan market and the housing transaction market. The average price of mortgage bonds crossed the 100,000 toman mark last Sunday, while the average price of bonds rose by about 41% in the first 24 days of December.
While last Saturday, the 20th of December, the average price of each mortgage bond was 97,000 Tomans, from Sunday, the 21st of Azar, the average price of each mortgage bond exceeded 100,000 Tomans. This event means that the average price of each item of mortgage bonds has reached six digits and its price has exceeded 100,000 Tomans, and also the continuation of this price level for up to a week has been almost unprecedented since 1995. An important question that arises in this regard, the advancement of the securities trading market, the mortgage market and the entire housing market due to the occurrence of this unprecedented event, is what caused the price of mortgage bonds to jump in recent days?
Studies on the cause of price inflammation in the mortgage market in recent weeks show that, contrary to what is thought, not a “significant increase in demand” but a “sharp decline in supply” was influenced by price expectations in the market, which led to higher purchase prices.
However, the wrong policy of “fluctuating range” in the capital market, which had previously caused the “emotional rise in stock prices” during the boom and then the “erosive recession of at least a year” on the Tehran Stock Exchange, is now for the housing market and the weakest buyers The house has also become a nuisance.
In recent weeks, the stock market has prevented expectations in the securities market from rising in the shortest possible time in the form of “price increases to equilibrium levels”; As a result, the consequences of the permissible ceiling of bond price fluctuations led to the formation of “buying queues” and “frequent price jumps.” Now the policymaker, instead of treating the stock market root of this disorder, has set another wrong policy that will put pressure on the central bank’s resources.
Three mutant channels in 24 days
The jump in mortgage bond prices in the first 24 days of December was such that the average price of mortgage bonds jumped three channels in this short period of 24 days. As a result of this jump, the cost of obtaining a mortgage increased by at least 40%.
The cost of receiving a 480 million Toman mortgage loan for a couple in Tehran will be about 100 million Tomans by calculating the current level of the price of mortgage bonds. This is about one-fifth of the total loan amount received by the borrowing couple in the capital. The price level of the bonds reached a level during the first 24 days of December, when the applicants could not afford to buy the bonds for the applicants to buy a house using a loan.
The average price of each mortgage bond last year was 80,000 tomans. The average price level of mortgage bonds last year increased by 81% compared to the previous year – 99 compared to 1998. The main increase in mortgage bond prices last year was due to the growth of the overall index in the stock trading market. In the first half of 1999, the price pulse of mortgage bonds was strongly influenced by the excitement of the stock market index. Although during this period, ie the first six months of 1999, due to fluctuations in parallel markets such as the stock market, capital purchases from the housing market also increased, but only some buyers used to buy housing using loans and the main factor and Important in the 81% increase in bond prices last year is related to the excitement caused by the sharp growth of the overall stock index in the first half of 1999.
With the excitement in the capital market subsiding, in the second half of last year, the price of housing bonds began to fall, and in March, the average price of each 500,000 Toman mortgage bond reached 57,000 Tomans. The 50,000 Toman channel is actually the level below the price floor in the mortgage bond market. In fact, the main engine of the growth of mortgage bond prices last year is the same engine that led to an increase in stock market prices in the same period.
Source: the world of economy