Note | Threats and opportunities of the Russia-Ukraine war for Turkey

Fars News Agency International Service – Masoud Mohammadi; The Russia-Ukraine war is on the verge of entering its third month, when Turkey has shown significant activity in these two months, and these activities have had significant effects on both Turkey’s foreign and domestic policy.

Examining Ankara’s behavior in this regard, it can be concluded that Ankara did not rule out the possibility of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, and that Turkey perceived the tension between its two northern neighbors to be intense political tensions or minor local conflicts. This can be deduced from Erdogan’s visit to Africa, precisely in the days leading up to the war in the region, as well as his attempt to mediate between Kiev and Moscow in the pre-conflict period. Also, the non-clearance of Turkish ships in the days leading up to the war from the ports of Ukraine and Russia, which put Turkey on the brink of a wheat and vegetable crisis, and the failure of the Turkish state to pay attention to the evacuation of many Turkish citizens in Ukraine are other signs of this Ankara view. To the adventure.

Paying attention to the type of Turkish media policy in the early days of the war was again a sign of Ankara’s analysis that the war was short-lived. Because the ruling party understood this war as a political opportunity rather than as a strategic threat, and moved in the direction that, of course, with the prolongation of the war, the situation has changed.

In the following, we will examine the opportunities and threats of this war for Turkey:

Opportunities:

Playing an active international role after a period of stagnation and passivity: While Turkey has been plagued by various politically tense cases in recent years, these cases have transformed the country from an active and proactive actor to a country facing various dangers and against treaties. And the various alliances that have typically been formed by neighbors or allies, and over the past year have sought to rebuild their relations with the Persian Gulf, North Africa, and Israel to control tensions around them. This war is a new opportunity. And was attractive to Ankara in terms of international activity. Erdogan’s visit to Ukraine and his attempt to travel to Moscow (which, of course, failed) in the pre-war period, and the many efforts made by the Turkish government to establish a negotiation process in Istanbul in the post-war period, all in order to play an active role. International was from this country.

The role of mediator between East and West: During its activity, Turkey tried to act as an ally of East and West. During this period, Turkey was sending a message to the West that Ankara could act as an important and credible player for the West in the East and prevent an increase in international tensions. This logic also became the main logic of Ankara’s political behavior in the recent war. Ankara has taken a balanced approach to Western pressure on Turkey to join the wave of Western sanctions against Russia and international pressure. Turkish officials have described the move as an attempt not to destroy all bridges between themselves and Russia, trying to show that Turkey, as a trusted member of both sides, can play a mediating role between Moscow and Brussels. This role of Turkey, especially considering that Turkey became the only way for Russia to communicate with the outside world, was somehow imposed on Moscow, and Moscow tried to show its mediation position on its part by showing softness on the issue of the Istanbul talks. Recognize.

Turning to the West: With the prolongation of the war and the weakening of Russia’s position in the international arena, Turkey has had the opportunity to continue its return to the Western and Arab sides in the past year without significant political costs at home and abroad. Head west. The nature of Erdogan’s behavior in the meetings that took place on the occasion of this war, and the significant difference that these behaviors had with the type of policy applied by the Turkish government on the ground, showed that Erdogan is trying to pursue a balanced approach in practice. Pursue the proclamation of the green light policy to the West. This policy also paid off, and Biden’s exceptional meeting with the Turkish ambassador in Ankara and progress on the F-16 issue were among the promising signs.

Overwhelmed by the internal crisis: The day the war in Ukraine began coincided with the historic event of a six-party meeting of opposition leaders. While the incident was expected to lead to a political earthquake in Turkey, under the shadow of the start of the war it received virtually no news coverage in many of the Turkish media controlled by the ruling party. This situation was a symbolic achievement for Erdogan, which showed how much the ruling party can use this issue to its advantage. Following this process, the ruling party was able to strengthen Erdogan’s political leadership by promoting the Istanbul talks and promoting him as a world leader capable of controlling international crises. On the other hand, especially in the first month of the war, the excitement of the war and the fear of its dire consequences in Turkish society shifted public attention to the country’s leadership. In fact, Erdogan portrayed himself as the captain who can run the country in the stormy sea of ​​the region and Turkey as a safe country. These considerations were such that at that time, some experts believed that if this situation continued and the Istanbul talks succeeded, there was a possibility that Turkey would move towards an early election to use its political and international achievements to ignore the economic crisis. Had.

Excuse for economic crisis: Turkey has been in one of the most difficult economic crises of the last 20 years. The national currency has reached its lowest value (and, according to the Minister of Economy, it is basically impossible for it to get worse!), The volume of imports has almost doubled compared to exports, inflation according to official statistics is over 60% (and on According to unofficial statistics (above 140%) and treasury assets are in poor condition, the government is having difficulty in meeting the budget deficit. On the other hand, as the opposition and the masses acknowledge, economic and administrative corruption has reached an unacceptable level. Meanwhile, although the process of raising prices has been going on for months, the war in Ukraine has provided a good excuse for the ruling party to refer all the problems to this war. Rising energy prices, unprecedented increases in the cost of production and rising prices for basic products such as oil and flour are among the problems that the ruling party is trying to blame for all of this in the Ukraine war.

threats:

Western Impositions: Although Turkey is normally trying to control possible political crises between Ankara and the West by approaching the West as elections approach, it is likely that as the situation worsens and the war turns into a full-blown conflict. There is a rift between Russia and the West – and not just Ukraine – in which case the West will also reconsider some of the concessions and exceptions made to Turkey. Turkey’s informal concessions on comprehensive sanctions against Russia could be lifted by the West in the event of an escalation of the crisis, and Ankara’s cooperation with Russia in the face of a comprehensive confrontation with Russia could be imposed. Ankara’s dependence on Russia in many areas is such that Ankara will not be able to sever ties with Moscow, and these Western impositions will cost Ankara much more. The issue of air transit and circumvention of banking sanctions, which would normally bring significant income to Turkey, would certainly be stopped if these pressures were met.

Entering a political crisis with Russia: In case of escalating tensions between the West and Russia and imposing cooperation with the West on Turkey as one of the largest NATO armies and a member of the European Union, Ankara will enter into a crisis with Moscow, which can be in various cases. Political issues such as Syria, Libya and the Caucasus, and economic issues such as the large number of Turkish companies in Russia and large Russian contractors in Turkey (such as nuclear power plants) have significant consequences for Turkey. The fragile state of Turkish economy and politics has greatly reduced Ankara’s ability to cope with such consequences.

Deepening economic crisis: The recent war, both in the short and long term, has many direct and implicit effects on Turkey’s shattered economy, with the cost to Turkey estimated at $ 40 billion. While the suspension of exports and imports from Russia and Ukraine has reduced job opportunities in Turkey and put pressure on various companies operating in Ukraine, rising energy prices are another difficult aspect of the crisis in Turkey. On the other hand, while the government was hoping for Russian and Ukrainian summer tourists to provide the country’s currency, with the outbreak of this war, this population of several millions has fallen. Experts in the field of tourism have reduced their forecast for Russian tourists in the summer from seven million to two million, and Ukrainians, who were expected to reach two million in previous years, to zero. This reduction means a crisis for the Turkish tourism industry, which has already been proven once again in the crash of a Russian plane in northern Syria, to what extent the Turkish tourism industry is dependent on the Russians.

This situation will have a negative impact on the Turkish economy in the long run, which will deepen the country’s economic crisis, which also means greater troubles for Erdogan in the run-up to the elections.

Deepening Corruption and Strengthening the Illegal Economy: With the heavy and in many cases illegal blow that European governments have inflicted on capitalists close to Putin, Turkey seeks to make itself a safe haven and a haven for their money and capital. . In recent years, Turkey has shown that it can be a hub for behind-the-scenes economic activity, in many cases under the indirect supervision / partnership of the government or governments, especially in the case of the Iran nuclear case, the Erbil issue and tensions between various political groups in the Middle East and Central Asia. will be done. Even now, it could be a place for Russian venture capital to migrate from Europe. Although this situation can cause hot money to enter the Turkish economy in the short term, in the medium and long term it will fuel economic corruption in the country. As in the case of Reza Zarab, which led to the resignation of several ministers from the cabinet, or in the case of Arab money, which involved the participation of important politicians, this entry of illegal money or money of unknown and corrupt origins into big money laundering and from there It leads to the corruption of bureaucrats.

Strengthening the Opposition: From the very first day of the war, there has been a wave of sharp criticism against the government. Because with the outbreak of this war, the extent of Turkey’s dependence on strategic products such as flour and oil abroad was revealed, and the extent of the reduction of the country’s strategic domestic production became clear. This, along with the government’s approach to deporting Turkish nationals from Ukraine, culminated. On the other hand, due to the country’s dependence on Russia and the fact that the ruling party has given up on turning away from Russia, it has made it possible for the opposition to attract more Western attention and, on the other hand, pressure on the masses. And make more criticism of Erdogan.

Result

When comparing the opportunities and threats of the Ukrainian war for Turkey, it can be seen that while the potential benefits to Turkey are or will be in the short term, the threats posed by the war are more long-term. In fact, if this war lasts longer, it will pose more threats to Turkey, and on the other hand, these threats will have a long-term effect on Turkey and it will not be possible to refer to it all at once.

Ankara also seems to have realized the West’s tendency to erode the war, and the threat-oriented aspects of the war are weighing on its benefits. Because the Istanbul talks with the Bucha incident and the Moscow ship have been practically suspended, and with the volume of weapons, money and manpower coming to Ukraine from different parts of the world, there is no hope of extinguishing the fire near Turkey.

* Mersad think tank

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