Popular and one-sided analysis does not help to enlighten public opinion

According to Iran Economist, the central bank responded to the report of the newspaper “Economists are on the line, Mr. President”, and announced that some claims were made regarding the government’s economic performance in the last year, citing the increase in the inflation rate point by point in a situation It has been suggested that according to the Central Bank’s report on the changes in the price index of consumer goods and services in urban areas, the inflation rate (twelve months) at the time of the beginning of the 13th government had reached 59.3% in September 1400, but following the policies implemented and executive measures in the field of more effective management of changes in monetary totals, stabilization of the currency market, monitoring of the prices of goods and services and proper supply of basic goods, the inflation rate started a downward trend from that point on and reached the figure of 46 It reached 2% at the end of 1400, which confirms the decrease of 13 percentage points in the inflation rate.

In this connection, the point-to-point inflation rate decreased by 25.3 percentage points from 54.9% in September 1400 to 29.5% in March of this year.

19.4% decrease in the inflation rate in the 13th government

Although the downward trend of the inflation rate point by point since the beginning of this year was affected by the inflationary effects of the implementation of the legal duty of the popularization of subsidies and the elimination of preferential currency allocation, it stopped and in the first four months of this year, as expected, faced an increasing trend, but considering that the aforementioned policy It caused the price correction of a number of goods subject to receiving preferential currency directly and indirectly, the inflation level of basic food commodities returned to its previous path from August of this year and in total the point-to-point inflation of the price index of consumer goods and services decreased from August of this year. It has been added that this continued in November of this year and reached 43.3% in November from 45.8% in August of this year.

In addition, the twelve-month average inflation rate in November this year was recorded as 39.9 percent, which shows a 19.4 percent decrease compared to the inflation rate at the time of the establishment of the 13th government (59.3 percent).

According to the calculations, about 11.7 percentage points of the increase in inflation formed during this year is related to the correction of the prices of basic goods in the implementation of the subsidy popularization plan.

Therefore, by deducting the inflationary effects of the implementation of this plan, the implementation of which was inevitable due to economic necessity, lower levels of the inflation rate could also be realized as a result of the measures and measures taken.

Therefore, simply referring to the point-by-point increase in the inflation rate regardless of the relations and economic conditions of the recent period, including the implementation of the large subsidy popularization plan, will be a one-sided and far from fair assessment; Especially, in the recent period, most of the world economies have been faced with the rising trend of inflation due to factors such as the increase in global prices in the field of energy and basic goods.

When the exchange rate experienced growths of 113.3 and 100 percent in 6 months

Regarding the claim of a sharp increase in the exchange rate in the 13th government and recording figures of around 350 thousand Rials in the past days, it should also be noted that previously in 2019, the dollar rate in the remittance and banknote market, as well as in the informal market, could be increased. experienced attention, and at the same time, the currency market was facing inflammation and severe price fluctuations.

So that the dollar rate in the informal market and the dollar remittance rate went from about 150 and 135 thousand rials at the beginning of 2019 to about 320 and 270 thousand rials in October 2019, respectively. In other words, within a period of 6 months, it experienced 113.3 and 100 percent growth, respectively.

Reduction of transactions in the informal currency market

Accordingly, in the past months of the 13th government, the Central Bank’s approach has been to direct the exchange rates in these two markets to equilibrium levels (commensurate with the fundamental components of the economy) by organizing and deepening the official remittance and banknote market. and in the meantime, while trying to strengthen the supply in this market and respond to all real foreign exchange needs, seriously reduce and minimize the areas of trading in the informal market.

Affected by the actions taken, the average dollar rate experienced a relatively stable trend in both the official market (money orders and bills) and the informal market; So that the standard deviation of the dollar rate in the informal market (as a measure of exchange rate fluctuations) in the second half of 1400 decreased by about 42% compared to the first half of the said year.

With regard to the above and considering the importance of fairness in expressing expert criticism and analysis of the country’s economic issues, it is necessary to avoid expressing popular and one-sided content and analyzes that do not help to enlighten public opinion about the economic realities of the country.