Predicting the housing / home market or not ?!
According to Tejarat News, Mohammad Mortazavi, a housing market expert, stated: “We expected a decrease in housing transactions in October.” Usually, the volume of traffic increases in August and September, and then in the fall, we face a decrease in sales. Prices also fell 0.2 percent in Tehran, which is not so important, and in fact the market is relatively stable.
The housing production leap plan cannot be implemented
The housing market expert added: “Another reason for the stability of the housing market is related to the plan to jump in production and supply of housing.” However, such designs, based on their size and scope, always create psychological effects in the first place. When we talk about offering one million units a year and four million in four years, and addressing a series of deciles that are supposed to be homeowners, some people who are looking for affordable housing may be thinking about taking advantage of this opportunity. کردن.
He asked the question, to what extent is the housing production leap plan operational? He said: First, the project of a leap in housing production of this magnitude is not possible. Most people who have been in the housing market for many years believe that not only will it not be possible to build four million units in four years, but that it will impose severe inflation on the housing market.
According to Mortazavi, we are facing shortages in the construction materials and manpower sector due to the decrease in housing production in recent years. At present, 300,000 to 400,000 housing units are built annually, and if we want to increase this number to one million units at once, that is, we need three times the current amount of construction inputs, services and manpower. At the same time, there is competition in the market, which pushes the whole chain towards price growth.
Injecting liquidity into the housing market leads to inflation
He stressed: “The reflection of the injection of heavy liquidity into the housing market is an increase in prices.” I think the resources that are being injected into this sector must have been very patient and thoughtful. When presenting a plan, we must pay full attention to its inflationary effects. In my opinion, inflation that has not shown itself in the housing market today will have the capacity and potential in the coming years. Therefore, I consider the gradual and controlled increase in housing prices to be better than the creation of money, which will pave the way for future price jumps.
The housing market expert considered it reasonable to achieve the annual production goal of one million housing units in 10 years and said: “We should take the project in proportion to the current market demand and increase it every year with a gentle slope to about one million units according to Let’s reach the comprehensive housing plan. During this period, we need to use tools to supply and control the price of materials and control wages. One of the most effective ways is to provide banking facilities to buyers to buy at a reasonable price.
Regarding the housing market forecast for the end of this year, Mortazavi said: “We are facing the issue of foreign sanctions, which has affected all levels of the economy.” Many economic actors are looking at whether or not sanctions will be broken, which will have a serious impact on currency prices and related markets. On the other hand, in proportion to the inflation of the second half of the year, in February and March, we expect an increase in transactions and limited price growth, which will be at the level of inflation in the second half of the year.
He stressed: “This year, due to the stagnation of housing transactions, in proportion to inflation of more than 40% of the general population, we did not see growth in housing prices, but in the first visits to the housing market prices increase, which usually occurs in the last months of the year. Buy a house. Sellers are also very willing to sell.
The growth of house prices in Tehran decreased
Therefore, according to the report, in October 1400, the average price of one square meter of housing in Tehran was 31 million and 631 thousand Tomans, which decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month and increased by 18.4% compared to the same period of the previous year. Also, the number of transactions in this month was about 5.5 thousand items, which shows a decrease of 29.8% and 36.8% compared to the previous month and the same month in the previous year.
Source: ایسنا