Prediction of today’s stock market / stock market; A shelter for stray capital?
According to Tejarat News, according to the current media atmosphere in recent days, naturally The nose of the stock market today It has also been affected by the developments in the negotiations to revive the JCPOA.
Most experts believe that the capital market this week is eagerly waiting for the outcome of Iran’s JCPOA proposals to the West. Therefore, it is expected that the market will continue its way in the atmosphere of fear and hope that it has experienced in recent weeks.
Of course, there are other issues and events that can be expected to affect the market. Among these cases, we can mention the increase in inter-bank interest rates as well as the controversial report of the parliament on widespread corruption in Mobarakeh steel complex.
Fear of the JCPOA in the stock market
Tehran Stock Exchange ended the trading with a negative return last Wednesday. Many believe that the stock market is afraid of reaching any agreement in the negotiations to revive the JCPOA. According to these people, the reason for the market drop was the strengthening of hopes for the conclusion of these negotiations. Of course, we should not forget that these negotiations have been largely eroded.
This mentality injected into the market by some stock market celebrities is very destructive and there is no sign of honesty in it. Most capital market analysts believe that this argument is based on the possibility of government intervention in the currency market to control the price of the dollar, which is basically a false logic.
Today’s stock market forecast
Market experts believe that even if the government of Ebrahim Raisi has the will and motivation to intervene in the currency market, considering today’s coordinates of the economy, it will not be possible to implement it even in the medium term.
According to this group of experts, who are in the majority, there are many reasons that the revival of the JCPOA, even for a short period of time, can be completely beneficial to the capital market. The argument of these people is also based on documents, of which the calculation of bubble markets is only one of them.
Calculations show that the stock market is the only market that is currently facing a negative bubble. A bubble equivalent to more than minus 15%, which means a significant growth potential in case of releasing the spring of sanctions.
In other words, it is expected that the removal of sanctions and the smoothing of the path for economic development can mean the benefit of the people of the capital market in the post-immigration era. As it was said, the stock market is the only market that has a negative bubble, and the removal of the sanctions and consequently the removal of inflationary expectations can lead to the rise of this market.
According to the statements made, the market is expected to show a positive reaction to the publication of any news in order to reach an agreement to revive the JCPOA.
Interest rate story and corruption case in Foulad Mobarakeh
Of course, two inhibiting factors may have different effects in between. At the end of last week, the central bank published the interbank interest rate report for the third week of August. According to this report, it can be seen that after three weeks of withdrawal, the central bank is forced to increase the interest rate again, which causes dissatisfaction among the shareholders.
The issue of the publication of the Parliament’s investigation report on Mobarakeh Steel Industrial Complex caused a lot of controversy. Among these margins, we can mention the corruption of more than 91 thousand billion tomans in this huge complex in the country’s industry.
For this reason, it is expected that there will be emotional reactions to the release of this news and it will not have a deep impact on the market trend.